Winners and losers: The Big 12's playoff chances are playing out just like last year

The Big 12’s unintentional backloading of its schedule was supposed to help the conference and its chances for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

However, in the past two weeks as Oklahoma has beaten Baylor and Baylor has beaten Oklahoma State and TCU has been derailed by injuries to its star players, it’s difficult to put a finger on which is truly the best team in the Big 12.

And more importantly, whether any of them deserve a playoff spot.

Baylor’s 45-35 win against Oklahoma State ensured the conference would not have an undefeated team to boast and the Sooner’s nailbiter in Fort Worth confirmed that three one-loss teams will head into the final full weekend of the Big 12 schedule.

The Bears, the Cowboys and Oklahoma all have one loss and the two Oklahoma teams have just one game remaining. Baylor is the only one-loss Big 12 team with two games remaining. When the regular season ends, only one Oklahoma team will still have one loss and Baylor could be out of the conversation altogether (though, not likely).

Seems familiar doesn’t it?

This is the same position that Baylor and TCU found themselves in a year ago. TCU was the higher ranked team heading into the final rankings, Baylor launched a campaign calling for head-to-head to come into play and while both teams were squabbling in the media, the CFP committee made sure both were on the outside looking in.

By the time the latest rankings come out on Tuesday, the Big 12 could have three teams in the top 10. Oklahoma, which was No. 7 this week, should move into the top six and some believe could even crack the top four. Baylor, which was No. 10, will probably land around No. 6 and Oklahoma State, which was No. 6, will probably end up No. 10.

Of course, this is just speculation. The CFP is a fickle beast and the committee's opinions tend to change with the day of the week. It’s also clear it doesn’t hold the Big 12 in the highest regard as none of the Big 12 teams, even when there were undefeated ones, ever cracked the top four.

And really, the Big 12 only gets two more cracks at the rankings while several other teams get three simply because they play conference title games. Baylor plays a lowly Texas team that championship weekend, but the other teams in contention are done.

A year ago, the biggest points of contention for keeping the Big 12 out were head-to-head, nonconference schedule and the lack of a conference championship game. The Big 12 made one change to remedy that this year, it declared that only one team would be named champion instead co-champions like a year ago.

However, the other problems from a year ago are going to be problems this year. If Baylor is the highest-ranked team, there will be complaints about its nonconference schedule, which consisted of SMU, Lamar and Rice. Oklahoma State has the same nonconference problem as Baylor with contests against Central Michigan, Central Arkansas and Texas-San Antonio. Of the three teams, Oklahoma has the best nonconference schedule with a win at Tennessee, but many would argue it has the worst loss of all the one-loss teams in the running (not just the Big 12) with the loss to Texas.

It’s time for the Big 12 to realize that if it wants to gain the respect of the CFP committee it’s either going to have to have an undefeated team with a strong nonconference schedule or it’s going to have to expand and play a conference championship. Otherwise, history will continue to repeat as it appears it’s going to do this year.

Here are the winners and losers from Week 12:

WINNERS

Jim McElwain:

It was ugly against a terrible FAU team, but the first-year coach secured a 10-win season thanks to a 20-14 result in overtime, becoming the only coach at Florida to ever pull off the feat in his debut season. The Gators’ only loss remains LSU ahead of their rivalry showdown with Florida State next week. So while many critics are clamoring that Florida doesn’t belong in the CFP conversation, and Saturday’s result against the Owls didn’t help the Gators’ case, the fact that they’re still in position to win the SEC is a remarkable feather in McElwain’s cap.

Kansas State: With just over a minute to play in Manhattan, the Wildcats trailed Iowa State by seven and the Cyclones had the ball. Then Mike Warren fumbled and Kansas State recovered. Four plays later, Charles Jones ran it in from five yards out. With 40 seconds left in the game, Iowa State QB Joel Lanning fumbled, and you guessed it, Kansas State recovered. Two plays later, Jack Cantele hit a 42-yard field goal to ensure the Wildcats won’t go winless in conference play this year. A Kansas State win looked quite improbable when Iowa State was up 35-14.

Air Force: A 37-30 win over Boise State made Troy Calhoun’s bunch winners of the Mountain Division in the Mountain West. The Falcons’ losses are to Michigan State, Navy, and Colorado State, with all but the latter certainly excusable considering the landscape this year. And the win against Boise State on the road came despite a minus-4 turnover margin. Karson Roberts threw for 279 yards and two scores while running for another 66. Beating a revitalized New Mexico team on the road won’t be easy next week, but the Falcons are now just two wins away from a 10-win season. Beyond impressive.

Brandon Allen (Arkansas) and Dak Prescott (Mississippi State):

The two quarterbacks combined for 914 yards and 12 touchdowns in Mississippi State's 51-50 win. Yes, you read those stats correctly.

We'll start with the winning quarterback. Prescott had 508 yards and five touchdowns. His fifth was the game-winning score when he found Fred Ross for a touchdown with about three minutes left. Prescott has now thrown for 23 touchdowns and two interceptions this season after throwing for 27 TDs and 11 interceptions last season.

Allen put Arkansas in position to win the game but a 29-yard field goal was blocked and MSU was able to run out the clock for the win. Allen finished with 406 yards passing and had seven touchdowns. The seven TD tosses tied the record for most TDs thrown in a single game by an SEC quarterback. It's true. A Bret Bielema-coached quarterback tied a conference passing record. Crazy, isn't it?

Mississippi State is now 8-3 and plays Ole Miss next week. Arkansas, 6-5, plays Missouri.

Vernon Adams, Oregon: This is the Vernon Adams we all expected when the season started, right? Adams struggled with a finger injury early in the season and missed several games. Since returning, Adams has been great and the Ducks haven’t lost. In Saturday’s dominant 48-28 win over USC, Adams threw for 407 yards and six touchdowns while completing 20-of-25 passes. Since his return from injury, Adams has thrown for 1,499 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. Oregon, now 8-3, has won five straight games.

LOSERS

Notre Dame:

Yeah, the Irish beat Boston College 19-16, but it wasn't a win that is going to be a convincing case for why the Irish should be a top-four team in college football.

Boston College has a good defense. A very good defense. But five turnovers, including three in the red zone, isn't simply the product of playing a good defense. And don't you think Notre Dame is going to play a good defense or two if it makes the playoff?

Heck, the Irish will see a very good one when it plays Stanford next week. It wouldn't be surprising to see Notre Dame fall out of the top four in favor of Iowa and Oklahoma on Tuesday. But even if it stays in the No. 4 slot, a convincing win against Stanford is a must. That way Notre Dame has a case to be in the top four not only after the Stanford game, but in the only poll that matters after the conference title games – a weekend when the Irish doesn't play.

Memphis:

The party was fun while it lasted. There’s no question what Justin Fuente has done at Memphis is incredible, and he’s about get super paid somewhere else. But the season has fizzled quickly from the fever pitch it reached just a few weeks ago. Saturday’s 31-12 loss to Temple drops the Tigers to third in the American West Division, behind Houston and Navy. Still a great year, but a disappointing fall from the heights the program appeared ready to claim.

New Mexico: New Mexico had a chance to play for the Mountain West’s Mountain Division championship, but a loss to Colorado State on Saturday derailed those plans.

The Lobos had three opportunities to tie or take the lead after the Rams went up 28-21 with 6:05 remaining. However, those drives resulted in an interception, 10 total yards and another interception with 1:11 remaining.

If New Mexico had won, the Lobos would have forced a makeshift playoff during next week’s regular season finale against Air Force. However, Air Force’s win coupled with the Lobos’ loss secured the division title for the Falcons.

New Mexico, which has won six games for the first time since 2007, has not won a division title since winning the WAC’s Mountain Division in 1997 under coach Dennis Franchione.

Rice: Things were looking good for Rice seven games into the season. The Owls were 4-3 after a 38-31 win over Army and needed just two wins for a bowl berth. Well, that bowl berth isn't happening. The Owls lost 34-24 to UTSA on Saturday to drop to 4-7.

As you can see, 4-3 to 4-7 is a four-game losing streak. Not the way you want to end the season. But on the bright side, at least the game wasn't like the 65-10 drubbing the Owls suffered to Southern Miss last week. And Charlotte is the next opponent on the schedule. Maybe Rice can get to 5-7.

Duke: Duke has completely fallen off the face of the Earth since its controversial, last-second loss to Miami on Halloween. Including that game, the Blue Devils, who started the season 6-1, have dropped four games in a row to the Hurricanes, North Carolina, Pitt and now Virginia. The Blue Devils’ defense allowed 502 yards in the 42-34 loss, nearly 100 yards more than UVA’s previous season high. Duke is now 6-5 and 3-4 in ACC play.

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