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Three potential bid thieves bubble teams should dread
When Saint Joseph's went from the fringes of the NCAA tournament picture to winning the Atlantic 10 tournament last March, it was bad news for bubble teams hoping to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
The Hawks claimed an automatic NCAA tournament bid, forcing teams with stronger profiles from their league into the at-large pool and reducing the number of spots available to bubble teams by one.
This March, there will surely be an interloper or two that uses an unexpected league tournament run to make its way into the NCAA tournament field this season. Here's a look at some potential bid thieves that fans of potential bubble teams should watch out for during the next two weeks of conference tournament action.
1. UConn (17-11, 10-6): Even though UConn slid to the fringes of the bubble picture by suffering too many road losses in league play, the defending national champions have a pretty good chance to salvage their season next week. The American Athletic Conference tournament will take place in Hartford, where the Huskies should feel right at home. They've won their last seven home games including victories over the league's top three teams, Tulsa, SMU and Cincinnati. The key for UConn will be getting efficient perimeter scoring from others besides Ryan Boatright. Daniel Hamilton has enjoyed a solid freshman season, but he's shooting just 40 percent. Rodney Purvis has been a disappointment, but he is coming off a 28-point outburst against SMU.
2. Richmond (17-12, 10-6): One of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 has only six scholarship players. Another hasn't been the same since losing one of its standouts to a season-ending knee injury last month. A third is in its first year in the league and is still scrambling just to make the NCAA tournament. In a year in which the Atlantic 10 is clearly not as strong as it usually is, that leaves the door wide open for a surprise team to win its conference tournament. Rhode Island, UMass, George Washington and St. Bonaventure are all threats, but the team worth keeping an eye on the most is Richmond. The Spiders have won four straight, they swept the season series against rival VCU and they're the fourth highest-rated Atlantic 10 team in the KenPom rankings behind the Rams, Dayton and Davidson.
3. Illinois State (19-11, 11-7): In a year in which Wichita State and Northern Iowa have dominated the Missouri Valley Conference, Illinois State has emerged as by far the biggest threat among the rest of the league. The Redbirds actually will be the fourth seed at Arch Madness this week by virtue of losing a tiebreaker to Indiana State, but they're a very respectable No. 67 in the KenPom rankings and they're third in the league in both points per possession scored and surrendered. The question will be whether the Redbirds fare better against the league's two powerhouses, both of which swept the season series against Illinois State but survived close games to do it. One advantage Illinois State should have is on the glass because it is the Valley's best offensive rebounding team.
Three other dark horses:
Saint Mary's (21-8, 13-5): Gonzaga is the WCC's juggernaut and BYU is the top challenger, but the best of the rest in that league is the Gaels. They've split with the Cougars this season and led the Zags deep into the second half in Moraga 10 days ago. They also boast one of the nation's most undervalued players in Brad Waldow.
UNLV (16-13, 7-9): There's a chance leading scorer Rashad Vaughn returns from his torn meniscus in time for next week's Mountain West tournament. If so, the Rebels are a more of a threat to win the conference tournament on their home floor in what is clearly a down season for the Mountain West as a whole.
Northwestern (15-15, 6-11): Could the Wildcats make their first-ever NCAA tournament by going on an improbable Big Ten tournament run? It's a major long shot, yes, but they have played all the league's top teams close and have won five of six including upset victories over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
