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Weekly Rotation: The five best No. 1 overall picks in MLB history
The MLB amateur draft begins Thursday, and there’s no clear No. 1 pick. Phillies fans might be a bit disappointed about the team’s 99-loss campaign in 2015 seemingly failing to bear a generational prospect in its wake, but who’s to say the top selection will still be in Philadelphia’s system next year, anyway?
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After all, none of the previous three still play for the organizations who originally chose them. They’ve either been traded (Dansby Swanson from the D-backs to the Braves and Mark Appel from the Astros to the Phillies) or failed to reach an agreement by the amateur draft pick deadline (Brady Aiken with the Astros).
This week’s edition of Weekly Rotation will highlight the No. 1 draft picks who stuck around and provided the most value for their original teams. Though Bryce Harper hasn’t cracked the top five yet, he should have no problem doing so by the time he’s eligible for free agency after the 2018 season.
Until that happens, here are the five most productive No. 1 picks in MLB history, ranked by Wins Above Replacement illustrated by PointAfter visualizations.
5. Darryl Strawberry, Mets, 1980
Career WAR (with draft team): 42.0 (36.5)
Stats with draft team: .263/.359/.520 slash line, 1,025 hits, 252 HR, 733 RBI, 662 runs, 191 SB in eight seasons
The only player in this ranking to capture Rookie of the Year (and one of four No. 1 picks in history to do so), a 21-year-old Darryl Strawberry debuted for the Mets in 1983. His lanky 6-foot-6 frame and powerful, looping swing immediately demanded the attention of the manic New York media. His presence coincided with the most successful period in Mets history.
Strawberry’s rookie year marked New York’s seventh straight losing campaign, but the Mets went on to average 95 wins between 1984-90, with “Straw” making the All-Star Game each year, the first five as a starting outfielder.
Following the Miracle Mets’ title in 1986, Strawberry’s game reached another level. He finished sixth in MVP voting in 1987, then runner-up in 1988, when Strawberry and his league-leading .911 OPS probably should have bested Kirk Gibson for the award.
Unfortunately, substance abuse, injuries and a bout with colon cancer derailed much of Strawberry’s post-Mets career (though he did earn three World Series rings with the Yankees). Despite his potential going unfulfilled amidst his relatively snakebitten thirties, “Straw” will forever hold a soft spot in the hearts of Mets fans.
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4. Alex Rodriguez, Mariners, 1993
Career WAR (with draft team): 118.7 (38.0)
Stats with draft team: .309/.374/.561 slash line, 966 hits, 189 HR, 595 RBI, 627 runs, 133 SB in seven seasons
Can you believe Alex Rodriguez will likely play more than twice as many games in pinstripes as he did in Seattle? If/when A-Rod inducted into the Hall of Fame, his bust will don a Yankees cap, and that works against him in these rankings.
The polarizing slugger is far and away the career WAR leader among No. 1 draft picks, but he left the Pacific Northwest at age 25, before he peaked and nabbed three MVPs with Texas and New York.
Rodriguez was still pretty darn good for the M’s, though. He won a batting title during his “sophomore” campaign in 1996, made four All-Star teams and averaged nearly 37 homers and 25 stolen bases during his five full seasons in Seattle. Then, he bolted to sign the richest contract in sports history and unwittingly morph into one of baseball’s most controversial figures (one wonders how good the 2001 Mariners could have been had A-Rod stuck around one more year to spell Carlos Guillen at shortstop).
The Biogenesis scandal and subsequent 162-game suspension handed down to Rodriguez almost surely robbed him of the chance to break Barry Bonds’ home-run record (a race that would have captivated America and dragged MLB back into the forefront of the national consciousness). But he still has a healthy lead among active players, and sits 20 dingers behind Babe Ruth for No. 3 on the all-time home run list.
Most Career Home Runs Among Active Players | PointAfter
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3. Joe Mauer, Twins, 2001
Career WAR (with draft team): 49.4 (49.4)
Stats with draft team: .312/.394/.449 slash line, 1,753 hits, 125 HR, 776 RBI, 836 runs in 13 seasons
A native son of Minnesota, Mauer has carried the weight of a state on his shoulders throughout his professional career. Though the Twins have failed to win a postseason game during Mauer’s tenure — having been swept out of the playoffs in 2006, 2009 and 2010 — the sweet-swinging lefty has largely fulfilled his potential.
Mauer’s 2009 MVP campaign was one for the books, as he led the majors in batting average (.365) and on-base percentage (.444), while also pacing the AL in slugging percentage (.587) and OPS (1.031). His mantle is home to five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves from his days as a catcher.
Mauer strikes out far more than he did in his prime, but 2016 has marked a sort of mini-revival for the 33-year-old. With eight home runs already tallied, he’s on pace to record the second-highest homer total of his career. Though his reputation as an on-base machine had waned in recent years, his walk rate has rebounded to a career-best 14.8 percent.
Joe Mauer Career Walk and Strikeout Rates by Season | PointAfter
As it stands, Mauer is one of three first-rounders left from the 2001 MLB Draft, along with David Wright and Mark Teixeira. He’ll almost certainly outlast those two — his switch to first base alleviated long-term injury issues, and he currently ranks second in WAR among AL first basemen, trailing only Miguel Cabrera.
A bright spot in Minnesota’s miserable 2016 campaign — a role the six-time All-Star has filled quite often during his Twins tenure — there’s still hope yet Mauer can lead the Twins to postseason triumph before his contract expires in 2018.
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2. Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners, 1987
Career WAR (with draft team): 83.6 (70.4)
Stats with draft team: .292/.374/.553 slash line, 1,843 hits, 417 HR, 1,216 RBI, 1,113 runs, 167 SB in 13 seasons
Ken Griffey Jr., selected by the Mariners six years before Alex Rodriguez, was always more beloved in Seattle than his fellow No. 1 draftee. For more than a decade, he was the beaming face of a franchise that had little to smile about prior to his arrival.
Griffey’s slick swing, glove and attitude changed that, even though the Mariners triumphed in just one playoff series with Junior patrolling center. He made damn sure they did win that five-game set against the Yankees, though, belting five homers and nine hits in 23 at-bats.
Every All-Star Game in the 1990s featured Griffey in the outfield, a fitting honor for perhaps the decade’s most recognizable MLB figure. Junior slugged 40 home runs six times and topped a .300 batting average between 1990-94 and 1996-97. His best effort came in 1997, when he earned his lone MVP as the league leader in home runs (56), runs (125), RBIs (147) and slugging percentage (.646).
Ken Griffey Jr. Batting Average and Home Runs by Year | PointAfter
Furthermore, Griffey’s trade to Cincinnati fetched Seattle Mike Cameron, who would go on to accumulate 18.3 WAR in four stellar seasons with the Mariners. That added value could push Griffey over the top-ranked player on this list from some fans’ standpoint.
However, neither Griffey nor any benefits from his fateful trade brought a World Series ring to his original team, as the player picked No. 1 three years after him and three years before Rodriguez did.
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1. Chipper Jones, Braves, 1990
Career WAR (with draft team): 85.0 (85.0)
Stats with draft team: .303/.401/.529 slash line, 2,726 hits, 468 HR, 1,623 RBI, 1,619 runs, 150 SB in 19 seasons
Larry Wayne Jones, or “Chipper,” as everyone except Mets fans calls him, was a dream No. 1 pick for an Atlanta Braves franchise that desperately needed a superstar in 1990. Dale Murphy would be traded to Philadelphia two months after Jones was drafted, marking the end of an era that wasted a two-time MVP’s prime with zero playoff wins and four last-place finishes.
Fortunately, Jones’ arrival signaled the beginning of a far more successful period. His rookie season in 1995 yielded a top-20 MVP finish and a World Series title. A 19-year career saw Atlanta win three National League pennants and 11 consecutive division titles. Jones himself claimed the 1999 NL MVP, the 2008 batting title, two Silver Sluggers and eight All-Star nods while finishing in the top 20 of MVP voting 11 times.
Even Jones’ “down years” were relatively good, as he accumulated at least 2.3 WAR in every season. And the franchise icon achieved all this while often taking hometown discounts near the twilight of his career, doing everything he could to help Atlanta claim postseason glory one last time before he retired.
Chipper Jones Career Salary vs. WAR | PointAfter
That didn’t quite go as planned, as Jones’ final game was overshadowed by an infamous infield fly and unruly home fans during the 2012 NL wild-card matchup. Though the Braves couldn’t bookend his storied career with a fairytale ending, Jones accomplished more during his first decade in the bigs than some Hall of Famers do.
There’s a bust awaiting Jones in Cooperstown, and part of it should read: “The epitome of a No. 1 draft pick.”
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This story was published in conjunction with Yahoo Sports and PointAfter, a sports visualization site that's part of the Graphiq network. Follow PointAfter writer Will Laws on Twitter.
