NL wild card preview: Either the Cubs or the Pirates are going home early

Following Wednesday's National League wild card game, one of the top three teams in baseball will be eliminated from the postseason. That's unfortunate for the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh, but that's the way it is.

While regular season record isn't always a perfect reflection of team talent, it's pretty safe to say both the Cubs and Pirates have a legitimate chance at winning the World Series. Whichever team advances could be favored over St. Louis Cardinals during the NLDS, and it's not tough to envision a scenario where the Cubs or Pirates are favored over whichever team makes it to the NLCS.

[Related: The MLB postseason field is set! Here's the schedule for the opening rounds.]

These aren't weak wild card teams that stumbled into the playoffs with 85 wins. These are exceptionally strong clubs that were penalized because they play in the same division as the Cardinals.

Because of that, the hopes and dreams of one of these clubs will be crushed after just one postseason game. While both teams deserve better, the do-or-die drama of a one-game playoff makes for one hell of an exciting (and incredibly stressful) matchup.

PARTICULARS
First pitch is at 8:08 p.m. ET Wednesday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The game airs live on TBS. Rosters have yet to be announced.

PITCHERS
It doesn't get much better than this. Cubs ace, and potential 2015 Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77) will tow the rubber against Pirates stud Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60).

Much has been written about Arrieta over the past couple weeks. His post trade deadline numbers are insane. Over the last 88 1/3 innings, Arrieta has a 0.41 ERA and a .136 batting average against. The Cubs have won each of his last 13 starts. The last time he failed to notch a quality start was all the way back on July 16. That was also the last time he failed to go at least six innings during a game. He is, undoubtedly, a serious contender for the 2015 Cy Young award after somehow not even making the All-Star team.

[Related: We ranked all 25 possible World Series matchups.]

Gerrit Cole, on the other hand, has no shot at winning the NL Cy Young. That speaks far more about his competition for the award, and far less about his abilities on the mound. In any other season, Cole would likely be among the Cy Young favorites. His 2.60 ERA is among one the best in the league, and his 208 innings speak to his durability. Since his promotion back in 2013, Cole has been everything Pirates' fans were promised. Watching him take that step from great pitcher to no-doubt franchise ace has been one of the best parts of the Pirates' surge this season. As a reward, he gets the face the hottest pitcher on the planet in a one-game playoff.

PREVIOUSLY
The Cubs led the season series, going 11-8 against the Pirates. Pittsburgh did manage the most dominant win, for what it's worth, knocking off the Cubs by a score of 8-1 April 29. In five starts against the Pirates, Arrieta has a 0.75 ERA through 36 innings. The Cubs went 4-1 against Pittsburgh in games started by Arrieta. Cole has made four starts against the Cubs this season, posting a 2.13 ERA over 25 1/3 innings. The Pirates have gone 3-1 against Chicago in games started by Cole. The wild card matchup will be the first time the two pitchers have squared off against each other this season.

[Also: Check out our MLB wild-card game predictions.]

THE CUBS WILL WIN IF ... 

Arrieta continues this unreal run. We've talked a fair amount about the starters, though, so let's focus on another scenario. The Cubs will win if their young hitters aren't overwhelmed by the moment, and can take good at-bats against Cole. It's been a fantastic year for rookie Kris Bryant, and a big part of that has been his patience. Bryant has taken at least 12 walks after starting a count 0-2. If he can retain his same approach at the plate in this atmosphere, the Cubs might be able to notch a few runs against Cole.

THE PIRATES WILL WIN IF ...
Cole pitches like a bonafide ace. Again, we've talked about the starting pitching so much, so let's focus on something else. The Pirates will win if Andrew McCutchen tells his teammates the secret to hitting Arrieta. The two have only faced off 27 times during their careers, but McCutchen holds a .348/.444/.435 line against the ace. That includes a .333 batting average the past two seasons, when Arrieta blossomed into a star. That's an incredibly small sample, of course, and it's tough to trust those numbers. More importantly (and obviously), if McCutchen has his usual strong game, the Pirates will be in great shape.

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS

• 438: Strikeouts by Arrieta and Cole in 437 innings during the regular season. All signs point to this being a low scoring game.

• 48: Road wins for the Cubs. That figured led all of baseball this season. The Cubs are just as strong on the road as they are at home. Will home field matter for Pittsburgh?

• 11: Wins in 16 games for Pittsburgh after infielder Jung-Ho Kang was lost for the season with a knee injury. Kang was on his way to a fantastic rookie year, hitting .287/.355/.461 in 126 games. While the team didn't miss a beat without him, Kang's contributions would have helped in October.

• .353: Starlin Castro's batting average since he got "benched" in early August. Castro has a .373 on-base percentage and .588 slugging percentage over that same period, which has spanned 143 plate appearances. It's a small sample, but Castro is one of the team's hottest hitters entering this game.

• -34.3: Pittsburgh's UZR throughout the season. That figure ranked last in the NL. Looking at the advanced stats, this is the one place that puts the Pirates at a big disadvantage. Defensive metrics aren't the most dependable (for example, McCutchen has never been loved by them despite strong scouting reports), but it's something to watch in this contest. We should note that Pedro Alvarez's awful -21.1 mark at first might be the big reason for the club's poor showing in UZR.

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik