BLS Roundtable: Which player are you buying after one week?

The biggest mistake a baseball analyst can make is overreacting to a small sample. It takes time for numbers to stabilize, and early season wackiness can skew those stats.

Remember when Paul Goldschmidt hit .193 in April back in 2012 only to hit .298 the rest of the way? What about when David Price posted a 4.75 ERA in April last year?

Judging players based on one week's worth of performance is asinine, silly and every other synonym you can come up with. With that said, we're still going to do it.

After one week, which player's performance are you buying? Here's what our experts said.

ADRIAN GONZALEZ, 1B, DODGERS
You might be reading this like "Adrian Gonzalez, c'mon, that dude is sooooo last week." He killed it last week, yes, but Gonzalez still leads MLB in homers despite not hitting one in four straight games. What a drought for him! But seriously, Gonzalez has hit safely in every game this season. He's already been worth 1.3 wins, according to Fangraphs, and some Regular Joes may not even know it's baseball season yet. So A-Gon as MVP? Sure, I'm buying that. The Dodgers need an MVP-like performance on the offensive side this season (sorry, Clayton) and as much as we all love Yasiel Puig, Gonzalez has a better shot. He's admittedly off to a hot start, but we're not talking about D.J. Lemahieu, we're talking about a guy who's already known for producing at an elite level. Gonzalez drove in 116 runs last season, his third straight 100-RBI campaign. If he can raise hit batting average back to his career rate (.276 last season compared to .293), he can totally be the NL's MVP. (Mike Oz)

MIGUEL CASTRO, RP, BLUE JAYS
He’s just 20 years old and has all of four major-league innings under his belt but Castro is already the Blue Jays’ closer, and he’s legit. It only took one rough outing from Brett Cecil for manager John Gibbons to install Castro in the ninth-inning role. Castro has classic closer stuff, including a lively fastball in the high 90s. It’s still early but he’s shown the stage isn’t too big for him – in four innings he has given up just one hit and already has two saves. The Blue Jays’ bullpen was full of question marks entering the season, but it looks Castro will be a sure thing. (Ian Denomme)

MICHAEL PINEDA, SP, YANKEES
Between the rash of injuries that kept him off the field and last year’s infamous pine tar incident, the past three seasons have been quite uneven for New York Yankees right-hander Michael Pineda. It’s early, but it sure seems like he’s taken the right first step toward recapturing the dominance he displayed as a rookie with the Seattle Mariners in 2011. Pineda was sharp in his first outing of 2015, giving up two earned runs over six innings against a powerful Blue Jays lineup while striking out six and walking just one. What spurred the most optimism from the start was the power changeup he mixed in with his fastball and slider that kept hitters off-balance. If Pineda can be consistent and stay healthy this season, he has every chance to be one of the best starting pitchers in the American League. (Israel Fehr)

TREVOR BAUER, SP, INDIANS
The Indians are looking for Bauer to take a step forward this season. In his debut last Thursday against Houston, we saw what that step will look like: Wild, but more consistently effective. That doesn't mean he'll mix no-hit stuff with a handful of walks every outing. It doesn't mean he'll be another Corey Kluber. It simply means the Indians have a 6-7 inning pitcher who will teeter on the fine line between brilliance and disaster, but will land on the side of brilliance with more frequency. To put it another way, the ride won't be for the faint of heart, but the destination will be satisfying for Indians fans. (Mark Townsend)

JAKE ODORIZZI, SP, RAYS
Odorizzi experienced a bit of a mini-breakout last season, so perhaps is not fair to pick him here. The knock on Odorizzi has always been that he lacks a strikeout pitch. That changed last season when he picked up a split-change from teammate Alex Cobb. Odorizzi used the pitch 31 percent of the time in his first start of the year, picking up six of his seven strikeouts with the offering. He also incorporated his cutter more often in order to keep right-handers off balance. It's too early to know whether the cutter will turn into a legitmate weapon for Odorizzi, but the split-change is enough for now. He's always been regarded as a decent prospect, but his willingness to change his approach and utilize his new pitch may take him to another level this year. (Chris Cwik)

YOUR TURN: Tell us which player's performance you're buying after just one week on Twitter or at the BLS Facebook page.

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