WHL playoff preview: First-round matchups in the Western Conference

1) Victoria Royals (50-16-3-3, 106 pts.) vs. (WC) Spokane Chiefs (33-30-5-4, 75 pts.)

Season series: Split 2-2. Prediction: Royals in 5

Series in a sentence: The WHL’s biggest surprise could be poised for a dominant playoff run.

It’s not surprising that the Royals are in a series that includes a wild card team. What is surprising is that they’re in the series as the top seed in the entire conference, given that they were seen as a fringe playoff team at the beginning of the season.

Defenseman Joe Hicketts is the big name on the Royals roster, so it’s not surprising that he’s been great this season (8 G, 53 A, +38 in 59 GP). The unexpected part for the Royals has been tremendous forward play from the likes of former first-overall bantam draft pick Alex Forsberg, who finally realized his potential as a 20-year-old with 31 goals and 91 points. Tyler Soy racked up 46 goals while Jack Walker added 36 and 137-pound rookie Matthew Phillips came out of nowhere to score 37. A team that recently relied on physicality and nastiness to win games suddenly became one of the most dynamic offensive teams with speed and puck possession.

Add in the emergence of rookie goalie Griffen Outhouse, with his 1.82 GAA and .937 save percentage in 27 games, and the Royals are the most complete team in the conference. They have a distinct advantage against the Chiefs in all phases, so it doesn’t appear as if they’ll have much trouble.

The Chiefs have a few things working against them: injuries have hit them late in the season, with key players like Kailer Yamamoto and Jason Fram missing time down the stretch. Ove-rager Wyatt Johnson still isn’t back from injury, nor is starting goalie Tyson Verhelst.

Spokane also has had a weird run in recent years of poor playoff performances at home. The Chiefs are 0-7 in their last three series at home, with a total of seven goals scored in those games.

If they plan to hang around in this series, they’ll need plenty of offense from the 17-year-old Yamamoto, who led the team with 52 assists and 71 points in 57 games. His brother, Keanu, is their second-leading goal scorer with 22, five behind Dominic Zwerger. Fram, the over-age captain defenceman, will have his hands full trying to deal with Victoria’s speedy forwards.

The Chiefs have a bright future with a nice core of young players, which is why they chose to trade prolific scorer Adam Helewka to Red Deer this season. It’s not supposed to be their year, so it won’t be a surprise when this series doesn’t go their way.

(2) Kelowna Rockets (48-20-4-0, 100 pts.) vs. (3) Kamloops Blazers (38-25-5-4, 85 pts.)

Season series: Kelowna 5-2-1, Kamloops 3-4-1. Prediction: Blazers in 7

Series in a sentence: The defending champions will have their hands full against one of the hottest teams in the league.

The Rockets reached the Memorial Cup final last year and finished 15 points ahead of Kamloops this season, but it’s not a stretch to say that the Blazers may actually come into this series as a slight favourite. Kelowna won the first five games in the season series, but the Blazers won the last three during a torrid stretch run.

The Blazers were a mess to start the season, losing their first six games, prompting everyone to essentially leave them for dead. Fast forward to now, and Kamloops enters the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak. Goalie Connor Ingram has been dominant with a .955 save percentage during that run.

Ingram’s carried the team on his back for most of the second half of the season, but the Blazers also have some good scoring talent in Collin Shirley (37 goals) and over-ager Gage Quinney, who jumpstarted the Blazers when he came over from the Rockets in a trade early in the season.

Kelowna, meanwhile, has dealt with some major adversity, losing first-round NHL pick Nick Merkley and over-age goalie Jackson Whistle for the season to injuries.

The Rockets, however, are still the champs and they can lean on the experience of over-agers Tyson Baillie and Cole Linaker, who were fantastic in the playoffs last year. Baillie was the team’s top scorer this year with 43 goals and 95 points, and draft-eligible Dillon Dube (66 points) also should play a big role after having a nice playoff run last year as a 16-year-old.

Both teams are relatively young on the blue line, so scoring chances may come in bunches. If that’s the case, the Rockets will have to hope that goalie Michael Herringer can keep up with Ingram.

(1) Seattle Thunderbirds (45-23-4-0, 94 pts.) vs. (WC) Prince George Cougars (36-31-3-2, 77 pts.)

Season series: Split 2-2 Prediction: Thunderbirds in 6

Series in a sentence: Special teams should help the T-Birds get by the penalty-prone Cougars.

The T-Birds were the favourites to win the U.S. Division coming into the season, but they didn’t lock up the title until going on a 13-0-1 run to end the regular season. Like Victoria and Kamloops, Seattle brings a ton of momentum into the postseason against a Prince George team that lost its last five and fell to a wild card spot late in the season.

Seattle’s fortunes really turned with the midseason acquisition of 20-year-old goalie Landon Bow from Swift Current. Since joining the Thunderbirds, Bow has posted a 1.76 GAA and .938 save percentage in 23 games. Is he as good as those numbers? Probably not, but he’s stabilized that position much like Taran Kozun did for them last year.

Offensively, the T-Birds have arguably the top player in the conference in Mathew Barzal, who put up 88 points (27 goals) in 58 games. Ryan Gropp (34 goals) and Keegan Kolesar (30 goals) shoulder much of the rest of the offensive load up front. Defenceman Ethan Bear has a rocket for a shot, tying for the team lead with 12 power-play goals (he scored 19 goals overall).

Prince George has been a frustrating club this year, looking at times like a contender in the B.C. Division but falling into a prolonged slump late in the season. The Cougars do have some firepower though, with Chase Witala and Jesse Gabrielle each posting 40-goal seasons. After a big season in 2014-15, Jansen Harkins took a step backward this year with just 57 points, but he’s capable of being a major offensive factor in the series. Goalie Ty Edmonds is capable of stealing games, but also capable of being lit up. He’ll have to be really good to compete with Bow.

Where the Cougars will have trouble is in the penalty box. Prince George’s 1,292 penalty minutes were the most in the league by a wide margin. The T-Birds have the third-ranked power play in the league, and the top-ranked penalty kill. The Cougars went 0 for 14 against Seattle on the power play in the regular season.

(2) Everett Silvertips (38-26-5-3, 84 pts.) vs. (3) Portland Winterhawks (34-31-6-1, 75 pts.)

Season series: Portland 5-4-1, Everett 5-5. Prediction: Winterhawks in 7

Series in a sentence: Goals will be at a premium in a series that could drag out to the end.

This series between very familiar rivals probably won’t feature a lot of end-to-end excitement, but it should include a lot of close, low-scoring games. Half of the Silvertips’ 72 regular-season games were decided by one goal, with Portland playing in 34 such games.

And in the 10 times the teams faced each other this season, the winner scored three or fewer goals in eight of those games. The last four meetings ended with a 3-2 score.

Both teams limped down the stretch, with each winning three of their last 10 games. Everett’s already meager offence struggled even more late in the season, while Portland’s season-long battle with inconsistency reared its head one last time over the last two weekends.

The Tips are the only team in the league to score less than 200 goals and also allow less than 200. They know who they are, and know their success comes down to structure, staying out of the penalty box (they set a WHL record for fewest penalty minutes this season) and pouncing on Portland’s mistakes.

Still, it’s hard to win in the playoffs with so little offence. Over-ager Remi Laurencelle was on fire for the first half of the season, but only three of his team-leading 28 goals were scored after January 15. Everett’s power play is 21st in the league and only converted 11 per cent of the time vs. the Winterhawks in the regular season.

If Laurencelle’s stick wakes up, and they can get some offence from the likes of Carson Stadnyk, Matt Fonteyne and Patrick Bajkov, the Tips will probably be OK. They certainly have a solid defenceman in first-round NHL pick Noah Juulsen, and there isn’t a tremendous amount of firepower to shut down on the Portland side for once.

One alarming note for the Tips is that goalie Carter Hart, the first-team all-star selection for the Western Conference, is battling a lower body injury and hasn’t practiced this week. If he’s not at his best, that could be trouble for Everett.

The Winterhawks are not the same team we’ve become accustomed to over the last few years. Outside of Dominic Turgeon, who scored 36 goals this season, and Rihards Bukarts, who scored seven times in six games against Everett, the Hawks have limited offensive upside. In fact, a lot of their offence is activated by defencemen Caleb Jones (45 assists) and Jack Dougherty (41 assists).

Portland converted 28 per cent of its power play chances against Everett, so if they can force the Tips into taking some penalties that could be a path to success.

In net, Adin Hill has been the biggest workhorse in the league, playing 65 games and facing more shots than anyone else. His stats are roughly equal to Hart’s, though, so goaltending should be fairly equal. Portland still has a few guys with WHL finals experience, so we’ll see if that help push the Hawks over the top.