Regarding Sam Reinhart, No. 2 picks who didn't jump directly to NHL have still done well
Sam Reinhart got his first NHL preseason goal on Wednesday, which is nice for him and "guarantees nothing" as far as making the Buffalo Sabres is concerned.
Prior to that outing, though, the No. 2 overall choice copped to fighting through a "little frustrating" adjustment period to playing against pros, where the pending Kootenay Ice graduate has yet to produce points with great abundance. That bit of 18-year-old honesty, of course, amplified the already abundant attention on Reinhart and sparked speculation that he might not make the Sabres.
It only seems sporting to point out, contrary to what various hot takers might say, that this would not be the worst thing. The second overall choice in the NHL draft does not always advance directly to the league, for myriad reasons. A quick and cursory scroll through the past shows that, dating back to the start of the millennium, there is no big drop-off in long-term NHL performance between the No. 2 picks who played elsewhere after being taken high and those who went right into the league.
This obviously rates further study than what could be gleaned from 20 minutes on HockeyDB, give or take about 13 minutes. Here is the roll call of the No. 2s who ended up being pencilled in to play somewhere else as 18-year-olds:
Player | Team | Year | Next season | NHLP | NHLG |
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Dany Heatley | Atlanta | 2000 | NCAA | 791 | 863 |
Jason Spezza | Ottawa | 2001 | OHL | 687 | 686 |
Evgeni Malkin | Pittsburgh | 2004 | Russia* | 632 | 518 |
Bobby Ryan | Anaheim | 2005 | OHL | 337 | 448 |
James van Riemsdyk | Philadelphia | 2007 | NCAA | 192 | 324 |
Ryan Murray (D) | Columbus | 2012 | WHL* | 21 | 66 |
(* NHL lockout) |
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That is hardly a group of nobodies, with a Hart Trophy winner and some 30-goal scorers among the group. Ryan Murray is a debatable inclusion on the list since he's only 21 years old at this writing and his post-draft season was affected by both the 2012-13 lockout and a shoulder injury that prevented him from joining Columbus when the season belatedly began. For the most part, though, if a team knew this was the level of production it would be guaranteed (big hypothetical, obviously) by giving their No. 2 overall pick more season, it would take that action.
The other group, the No. 2 selections who did go right into the league, includes Drew Doughty, which automatically makes it better, typing only half tongue-in-cheek.
Player | Team | Year | Next season | NHLP | NHLG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Staal | Carolina | 2003 | NHL | 688 | 769 |
Jordan Staal | Pittsburgh | 2006 | NHL | 319 | 561 |
Drew Doughty (D) | Los Angeles | 2008 | NHL | 221 | 442 |
Victor Hedman (D) | Tampa Bay | 2009 | NHL | 144 | 333 |
Tyler Seguin | Boston | 2010 | NHL | 205 | 283 |
Gabriel Landeskog | Colorado | 2011 | NHL | 134 | 199 |
Sasha Barkov | Florida | 2013 | NHL | 24 | 54 |
This is actually not intended as a direct comparison and that is kind of the point. It's a wash whether starting in the league right away portends long-term NHL success. It's a small sample size, but each group is pretty accomplished.
It just seems like something to be aware of ahead of Reinhart and the Sabres' final preseason game on Friday. It's not a fail if the Sabres return him to the Kootenay Ice. Call it an off-shoot of being the No. 2 pick out of a draft class that had four or five players being bandied about as potential top selections.
Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet.