QMJHL first round playoff preview: Part 2 – the maybes

Part 1 of Buzzing The Net’s first round QMJHL playoff preview – the top teams versus the bottom feeders – can be found here.

Moncton-Chicoutimi have a bizarre schedule of Thursday-Sunday for the first two games, otherwise every other series starts off Friday-Saturday for games 1 & 2.

(8) Sherbrooke Phoenix (36-26-2-4, 78 points) vs. (9) Charlottetown Islanders (35-28-1-4, 75 points)

Season series: Tied 1-1. Final Dynamic Dozen rankings: Phoenix 29th, Islanders 30th. Prediction: Islanders in 6.

Series in a sentence: You may as well flip a coin, but the Islanders are slightly bigger and slightly better on special teams.

Why the Phoenix could win: If the Phoenix can get Daniel Audette, Kay Schweri and Tim Weiser clicking on the powerplay, not to mention playmaker Cam Darcy from the point, they could feast on a big Islanders team. Charlottetown is tough, but they take a lot fo penalties and play a lot on the penalty kill.

They also have the dynamic Jérémy Roy, who could be an x-factor all series on both ends with solid offensive and defensive play, along with Carl Neill on the back end. Both blueliners had 40 points or more.

Why the Islanders could win: While they take a lot of penalties, their penalty kill is fifth-best in the league, with speed and size. On the other size, the Islanders boast the league’s second-best unit on the man-advantage, led by draft-eligible forwards Filip Chlapik and Daniel Sprong.

They also have the goaltending matchup on paper, as Mason McDonald brings more to the table than Alex Bureau, though both have had good years.

Also, the Islanders have only advanced past the first round once in their history, and this team is hard working and physical, and built for the playoffs. They are due.

(7) Baie-Comeau Drakkar (35-25-5-3, 78 points) vs. (10) Saint John Sea Dogs (32-26-4-6, 74 points)

Season series: Tied 1-1. Final Dynamic Dozen rankings: Drakkar 33th, Sea Dogs 44th. Prediction: Drakkar in 6.

Series in a sentence: Baie-Comeau has home ice and more experience in the battle of literal heavy-weights.

Why the Drakkar should win: The Drakkar have plenty of experience to draw on from visiting the President’s Cup finals the last two seasons, only for both visits to end in heartbreak. That can only make a team extra hungry. Philippe Cadorette was the starting goaltender for both runs, and is back for a third, along with impact forwards Frédéric Gamelin and Jérémy Grégoire. Other experienced players, like leading scorer Maxime St-Cyr and Luca Ciampini bring their own experience of deep playoff runs.

Both teams were 1-2 in the PIMs race, but the Drakkar had by far the better powerplay, 20.7%-to-17.1%, so Baie-Comeau should cash in on more of their opportunities on the man advantage. And there will be many.

Why the Sea Dogs could win: While the Sea Dogs don’t have the experience the Drakkar do, they have good physical depth and can match up to them physically. The Sea Dogs run the third best penalty kill in the league. They also have a key player who has intricate knowledge of the inner workings of the team, as Bokondji Imama was a member of the Drakkar at the start of the season.

The Sea Dogs started off hot and cooled off a bit as the season wore on, but they do have a goalie who matches up well to Cadorette in Sébastien Auger, who is capable of stealing a game or even a series if he’s hot enough.

(6) Val-d’Or Foreurs (35-25-3-5, 78 points) vs. (11) Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (33-30-4-1, 71 points)

Season series: Val-d’Or 6-2-2. Final Dynamic Dozen rankings: Foreurs 16th, Huskies 34th. Prediction: Foreurs in 6.

Series in a sentence: Foreurs got hot at the right time and might be too hot for the rival Huskies to cool.

Why the Foreurs should win: The Foreurs might be the league’s hottest team coming into the playoffs, save for Gatineau, but Val-d’Or rattled off 12 straight victories from February 12 to March 11.

The defending President’s Cup champs come into the playoffs with plenty of experience. Their top six scorers were all members of the Memorial Cup squad of a year ago, like Anthony Richard, Anthony Beauregard and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel. Behind them, smart acquisitions Jan Mandat and Alexis Pépin are part of a deep forward group that could overpower the Husky blueline and inexperienced netminders Samuel Harvey and Jérémy Belisle.

Why the Huskies could win: The Foreur winning streak has tempered off since the 12-gamer. Val-d’Or lost three in a row after their streak before recovering and beating Blainville-Boisbriand in the regular season finale.

The Foreurs goaltending isn’t much more experienced than the Huskies, as Keven Bouchard had a rough year in his transition to starter, and Etienne Montpetit took the job, but has no playoff experience. Rouyn-Noranda is a relatively deep team on offense as well, and matches up well to Val-d’Or

This is also a rivalry series, and these tend to have the records fly out the window the moment the puck drops, so you can count on that, too.

(5) Shawinigan Cataractes (39-26-1-2, 81 points) vs. (12) Halifax Mooseheads (32-30-4-2, 70 points)

Season series: Tied 1-1. Final Dynamic Dozen rankings: Cataractes 10th, Mooseheads 42nd. Prediction: Cataractes in 5.

Series in a sentence: Shawinigan isn’t necessarily built for the now, but Halifax was built for the last two seasons.

Why the Cataractes should win: They have strength in numbers, with 11 players with 40 points or more, and they have the better goaltender.

Anthony Beauvillier took a giant step forward this season, cementing his status as a great pro prospect with 94 points, enough to lead the team in scoring. Dennis Yan, Gabriel Slight, Dylan Labbé and Alexis D’Aoust give great support, and acquiring Christophe Lalonde, former Moncton Wildcats captain, paid off. This team can score and they can shuffle the deck to balance the attack. Not to mention Halifax has a woeful PK, sitting in 17th with 73.7%.

They also boast maybe the best goaltender in the QMJHL by way of talent in overager Marvin Cüpper, who paid his dues backstopping woeful Cataractes teams to get his shot at a contract this season. He’s earned one, and he can steal a series.

How the Mooseheads can stretch out the series: Two players: Nikolaj Ehlers and Timo Meier.

They are the lifeblood of the Halifax offence and if they can get going, the Mooseheads have a fighting chance. Ehlers had 101 points this season, and Meier had 90. Philippe Gadoury and Danny Moynihan each had decent numbers playing with the pair this season, though the Mooseheads don’t have much offensive depth after that.

Also good news is the return of Eric Brassard from injury just before the playoffs. The overager will put up a good showing, as Kevin Resop performed adequately in his absence, but not well enough to lead a team in the playoffs.