Fantasy Draft Review: Recapping an experts hoops draft that quickly went off script

Last week, at the invitation of Rotoworld's Steve Alexander — known to many of you as "Swaggy A" "Dr. A" — twelve of North America's most distinguished fantasy basketball experts assembled to draft a head-to-head, nine-category league. (More accurately, it was ten distinguished experts, plus Funston and myself.)

No, it is not ideal to draft your fantasy hoops roster in late-September, with the entire preseason still ahead. But we're professionals, which means we're expected to have a certain level of precognition. So draft we did.

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Here's the full lineup of writers involved in the Rotoworld Friend & Family Hoop league, listed by draft order (with Twitter links):

1. Ryan Knaus, Rotoworld
2. Kyle McKeown, Rotowire
3. Nick Raducanu, ProjectRoto
4. Chris Towers, CBS
5. Tommy Beer, BasketballInsiders
6. Brandon Funston, Yahoo
7. Matt Buser, Basketball Monster
8. Dr. Roto, ScoutFantasy
9. Tom Carpenter, ESPN
10. Mike Gallagher, Rotoworld
11. Dr. A, Rotoworld
12. Andy Behrens, Yahoo

A formidable group, for sure. Almost as soon as the draft timer began to count down, we had our first unexpected selection...

In a typical Yahoo draft, Kawhi Leonard is taken in the 20-24 range, at the back end of Round 2. But if you're drafting in a league in which several owners share the same pet players — and that was certainly the case with this crew — you occasionally reach for your targets. If Gallagher would not have taken Leonard at 10, he wouldn't have landed him — I would have considered him at the run, and Alexander declared that he would have taken him at 14. Kawhi was a solid across-the-board contributor last season, not a significant liability in any category, and he managed to post a top-30 season on less than 30 minutes per game. That ain't easy. With a small uptick in responsibilities this season (not a given), Leonard could reasonably/almost/maybe justify this pick. He's a great percentage shooter who surged in the second-half last year, and, as you might have heard, he was pretty decent in the NBA Finals. This pick is easy to criticize, but I respect the belief in an obviously great player.

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LeBron James is generally selected second overall in public leagues, but it's important to note that his end-of-season schedule is a bit light on games. Check the grid (and bookmark). In Weeks 20-25, the Cavs play 3, then 4, then 3, 2, 3 and 2. It's definitely an issue for Love, Kyrie and LBJ owners in head-to-head formats.

Also, it's easy to argue for Anthony Davis at No. 2, without regard to Cleveland's unfortunate end-of-season schedule. He's a freakish player, a monster in his core categories and a fill-the-stat-sheet fantasy asset.

The Michael Carter-Williams pick was such a jarring departure from ADP (73.2) that I reached out to Kyle for a quick spin. This was his response:

I'll add that a semi-injured rehabbing player like MCW (shoulder) is less of a risk in head-to-head, where March and April mean so much more than November and December. Carter-Williams averaged 17, 6 and 6 last season, which clearly has value. And if you plan to ignore the likelihood that he'll again be a high-volume, low-percentage shooter ... well, you probably still don't need to take him in Round 2. But you can understand the thinking. Full credit to Kyle for entering the draft with a plan, along with rankings that fit his strategy.

As for my team, the turn picks went just as I would have guessed (although after Kawhi went tenth, I briefly allowed myself to hope for Russell Westbrook at 12. Alas). In Rounds 3-4, I had hoped that one of the injury risk former MVPs would fall to me, either Derrick Rose or Kobe Bryant. But it didn't happen, and then the rapid-fire picks of Goran Dragic, Rajon Rondo and Ty Lawson left me chasing PG stats at Pick No. 36.

So I can't say I love Bradley Beal at this price, as he's essentially a two-category player by the standards of his position, and a drag on field-goal percentage. It's reasonable to expect Beal to score his age (21), but I'll be stunned if he finishes above DeMar DeRozan in the end-of-year ranks. Those two were separated by 15 picks here, with Beal on top.

I don't know that I can even be objective about Jabari Parker, having witnessed a fair amount of his prep career. He's going to score, immediately. He'll rebound at a respectable rate, too. And I think he's exactly the sort of player who can deliver a few defensive goodies for fantasy owners, without actually being a competent real-life defender. By the time Parker was a high school junior, he already had Paul Pierce's offensive game. He'll presumably get all the shot attempts he can handle in Milwaukee. I'm a buyer. I had hoped to land Jabari and Kenneth Faried at the Round 5-6 turn, but narrowly missed.

Faried, to me, seems like a near-lock to outperform his draft spot. Not only was he beastly in FIBA play (12.2 PPG, 63.0 FG%, 14.3 R/40), but he was notably manimalistic after the break last year (18.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG). I'm three drafts/auctions into the fantasy hoops season, and thus far I've landed him in all three. I followed Faried with Dwyane Wade here, in part because I was plugging positions, but also due to team context. Without LeBron in Miami, it's a bump for Bosh, Wade and Deng. The masses have written of Wade, essentially because he scuffled in the last two games of a one-sided Finals series, but last year's numbers were just fine: 19.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 54.5 FG%. No one expects an 82-game season, however, so he'll be a high-maintenance experience.

If you need Andrew Wiggins on your roster, you generally need to pay a slightly steeper price than Beer did here. Wiggins' current ADP is 59.2. I have a tough time viewing him as exceptional in any standard category, at least for this year. Minutes won't ultimately be a worry, but we're not talking about a stellar percentage-shooter (44.8 FG% at KU), nor a volume rebounder, nor ... well, look, he's 19 (as is Parker). He's nearly all projection at this point. He'll work off Rubio nicely. The highlights should be great, but the stat lines may not always pay the fantasy bills. Despite the top-of-the-charts athleticism, he had some rough moments at the rim as a collegiate player. Bottom line, I'm much more confident in Parker's ability to deliver top-60 fantasy value in his first season.

As is the case in basically all fantasy sports, every year, there's a lot of value in aging, boring, very good proven players. Korver, Pekovic, Deng and Joe outside the top-75? I'll take it.

Unfortunately, I could not actually take it in this particular draft, because none of those dudes fell to the final pick of Round 7. But Calderon fits the old/boring/reliable description, too, and the roster I'd constructed in Rounds 1-6 was both lacking assists and loaded with turnovers. He works. George Hill would have also worked, plus he's well-positioned for an increase in value, considering the offseason losses suffered in Indy. Passing on Hill was a minor regret. For better or worse, this is happening...

Elfrid Payton figures to start for Orlando as a first-year player, and he looks like a useful steals/assist specialist. Payton is an excellent defender who led the Sun Belt in steals per game (2.3) and assists (5.9) last season, and finished second in scoring (19.2). But shooting is an issue (61.1 FT%) and he led the nation in turnovers (127), so the kid is not without flaws. The Rondo comp definitely fits.

My ninth rounder, Taj Gibson, was pretty clearly an offseason loser in terms of fantasy value. Had the Melo-to-Chicago plan succeeded, Taj would have entered the year as an unrivaled starter for the Bulls, a reliable 32-MPG player. Instead, he'll open the season (again) as a sixth-man-of-the-year candidate. He'll close games for Chicago, no doubt — he's a ridiculously versatile defender, a Thibs favorite — but it's tough to see how he'll top 24-26 MPG while Pau and Noah are fully functional. Nikola Mirotic is lurking, too, and drawing favorable reviews. It's really a loaded frontcourt, in which everyone may suffer statistically to some extent.

Brandon essentially took all the risk out of Eric Gordon by drafting him outside the top 100 picks. His deep injury history isn't such a worry in the "what if?" rounds.

The end-game in this draft, you'll notice, was stacked with vets in various states of disrepair and/or recovery: Gordon, Andrew Bogut, Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee, Steve Nash, et al.

Marcus Smart was a terrific late lottery ticket, and he won't lack for minutes early in the year in Boston. Rondo is currently sidelined by a fracture in his left hand, an issue that should carry into the early weeks of the regular season. Smart is a ball hawk of a defender, a player with strength a serious wingspan (6-foot-9), and it's clear that he's impressed his head coach. (For a great/thoughtful read on Smart's personal history, try this link.) I queued him up during the tenth round, but he didn't make it to me at the final pick in Round 11. Such is life at the turn.

Julius Randle was simply an appreciate-his-game selection. (Note that I also took Z-Bo, Randle's best-case-scenario comp.) I'll admit, it's tough to defend this pick when the Lakers' starting power forward was still on the board. I'd just like to see where the Randle story goes. He won't turn 20 until November, so it's possible his entire season will be a developmental exercise, light on meaningful minutes. I may yet drop him for a Plumlee. Nik Stauskas arguably would have been the right pick there, if I absolutely had to have a rookie. At least he's in the starting conversation for Sacramento.

The final two picks in my draft were simply position/category fills, not upside fliers. (And I've since dropped Jack in favor of another non-upside vet, Jameer Nelson.) If you have continuing interest in this league or draft — hard to believe, but possible — you can find full post-draft team rosters right here.

As always, your constructive comments are appreciated.  Sometimes cherished. Only rarely thumbed-down. Do your worst...