Starting pitching key to Blue Jays win streak and future

Starting pitching was expected to be the strength of the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays. Before a single pitch was thrown when the Blue Jays were paper champions, with off-season acquisitions R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson, along with holdovers Brandon Morrow, and Ricky Romero taking turns on the mound, the status of the rotation was supposed to be an afterthought; a pillar of consistency for the team after the 2012 season seemed to set the bar for starting pitching heartache.

Before the Blue Jays ripped off an eight game win streak and vaulted themselves back into a semi-believable playoff hunt, one could point to the Jays starting staff as the season's biggest disappointment to date.

With Morrow battling injuries and currently on the DL, Romero relegated to triple-A, Johnson limited to seven starts, and Dickey struggling to rediscover his devastating "power" knuckleball, it's not the way Alex Anthopoulos and the front office envisioned it would play out when they put this team together.

The Jays 4.84 starters ERA still ranks 3rd worst in the majors, but this recent stretch can be attributed to better production from the staff.

In June, the Jays starters have a combined ERA of 2.87 and have posted improved HR rates (0.92/9 in June, 1.30/9 on the season) and BB rates (2.40/9 in June, 3.44/9 on the season and some of those contributions have come from unlikely sources.

Esmil Rogers has supplied quality innings as a starter since making the transition from the bullpen and Chien-Ming Wang had delivered a couple of solid starts since joining the team earlier this month.

There have been improvements from the big-name veterans as well.

Buehrle has settled down from a rough start to the season, posting a 2.16 ERA in four June starts. In three starts since returning from the DL, Johnson has a 1.86 ERA in 19 1/3 innings.

Dickey continues to be a mystery. There are games where he looks like the pitcher that won the 2012 NL Cy Young, there are others where his knuckleball offerings appear no more difficult to hit than batting practice fastballs. Overall, June still projects to be his best month of the season.

These are small samples but the positive developments are still encouraging.

Now despite the optimism, there are a few warning signs to take note of. Not loud, flashing, red, warning signs but at the very least a consistent, blinking, precautionary yellow light.

The Jays starters strikeout rate has remained unspectacular (5.92/9 in June, 6.35/9 on the season), and their June FIP is 3.94, over a full run higher than their ERA. This would indicate that while the staff has been sharper, they can still get better.

Starting Friday night, the Jays have ten straight games coming up against AL East opponents. Season's are not won or lost in late June but at some point the games have to mean something. The upcoming series at home against Baltimore and on the road against Tampa Bay and Boston are important in Toronto's push to break and stay above .500 and continue creeping back into the postseason discussion, and the starting pitching is going to play a significant role in which way the Blue Jays go.