Scotties 2016: Contenders, challengers and long shots

This year's Scotties Tournament of Hearts - held in Grande Prairie, Alberta - shapes up as possibly a fairly cut-and-dried affair, at least when it comes to the battle for the very top. There are two clear contenders for the crown, two teams that seem a lock for playoff positions, and below them a scramble among some pretty decent rinks for the remaining two spots. We all know what can happen if you get hot at the right time, or if your opponent suffers a bad day at the worst possible time. Upsets can happen. It's just that at this year's edition of the Scotties, there doesn't seem a great likelihood that we won't see the top two teams squaring off for the title on the final Sunday night.

Note: team rankings come from the World Curling Tour's (WCT) Order of Merit, year-to-date standings. Statistics quoted come from CurlingZone.ca.

CONTENDERS

Of the four teams most likely to secure playoff berths at the end of the round robin, the first two are really the only ones I feel completely comfortable with placing in this category. The other two  could easily have been found in the "challengers" slot.

Team Canada, skipped by Jennifer Jones, is the returning champ and the clear favourite to win a tournament that is short on contenders, and long on challengers and longshots. The 2014 Olympic gold medalists are ranked No. 2 in the world, but No. 1 here since Rachel Homan's team had an incredible season interrupted by an upset loss in the Ontario final. Sure, they've got just the one WCT win this season - back in November - but they're second on the money list and that means deep finishes at competitions all season long. They can rev it up when they want, most times, and Jones seems always, always, always to really want a Scotties win. With Jones and second Jill Officer poised to tie the record for most wins at a Scotties (Colleen Jones is currently the only player with six), that desire will be powered by extra motivation.

Team Chelsea Carey is most likely to be Jones' opponent in the final. After losing an emotional page playoff game to Val Sweeting at the Alberta Scotties, Carey and her squad (ranked sixth in the world) rebounded with a dominating win in the semi and then defeated Sweeting and her two-time defending Alberta rink in the final, showing their mental toughness. While the Alberta championship was their first win of the season at a major event, they - like Jones - have deep finishes at tough competitions to show for a season that has them ninth on the money list. They are chock full of experience and confidence, and should cruise to a playoff spot.

Krista McCarville returns to The Scotties for the first time since 2010 and she did it on the strength of a Northern Ontario win over defending champion Tracy Fleury. In fact, McCarville's team (ranked 20th in the world) beat Fleury (eighth ranked) three times during the Northern Ontario Scotties, so that was no fluke. Team McCarville has won five straight events heading in, although three of those events were filled with teams that you would not consider top tier and the Northern Ontario championship consisted of a tiny field. The team's third, 24-year-old Kendra Lilly, makes her first Scotties appearance and much will depend on how she fares in her first experiences with the bright lights of a national championship. The skip is one of the best in the field, with four previous Scotties appearances to draw on. Her abilities and strategies should be enough to make the difference in nabbing a playoff spot.

Team Kerri Einarson didn't have to face Jennifer Jones in the Manitoba Scotties, and that's a huge asterisk at any competition. But, let's not forget just how deep and tough that Manitoba field is year after year, and Einarson's squad beat a formidable opponent - Kristy McDonald - in the final. This is the 11th-ranked team in the world and they started their season with a Tier Two win at the Grand Slam's Tour Challenge in September. A few weeks later, at the Masters, they battled into the final four, losing a semifinal to Sweeting. Like the McCarville crew, a lot will depend on the play of Einarson's third, Selena Kaatz, and how she stacks up against other vices on a game-by-game basis.

CHALLENGERS

With the "contenders" category really only ruled by two fairly sure things, the battle for the 3 and 4 positions should be a dandy. There are a number of teams in the "challengers" category that are quite capable of playing beyond round robin. Should be a good scramble.

Quebec's Marie-France Larouche (72nd ranked) makes her ninth Scotties appearance and is always a tough competitor. Along with her third, Brenda Nicholls (seventh appearance), she nabbed a playoff spot at the 2012 Scotties. They are lightly-played (24 games) but their schedule is primarily built on making the Scotties.

Ontario's Jen Hanna (ranked 51st) provided the provincial playdowns with its biggest upset, knocking off the top team in the world, Team Rachel Homan, by a 10-8 score. That game may have been marked by three critical and uncharacteristic Homan misses, but Hanna is a skip who garners plenty of respect, leading her team to a 29-16 record this season. She'd have a Scotties title to her name already, had Jennifer Jones not made the greatest shot to ever win a championship, robbing Hanna in 2005.

Suzanne Birt's PEI squad is ranked 41st in the world and although the skip hasn't been in the Scotties playoffs since 2007, she's got a shot here. Birt will be making her ninth Scotties appearance and her vice - Robyn Green - makes her seventh trip.

Nova Scotia's Jill Brothers (ranked 47th) makes her second appearance at a Scotties as skip, after beating Mary-Anne Arsenault in the provincial final. She also played vice for Heather Smith in 2014 and certainly has the pedigree, skipping Nova Scotia to the Canadian Junior Championship in 2004.

Jolene Campbell's Saskatchewan champions (48th ranked) provided another of playdown season's fairly sizeable upsets, defeating Stefanie Lawton in the provincial final. Campbell makes her debut as skip, after three previous appearances as alternate for

Amber Holland.

LONGSHOTS

Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador and B.C. are in this category. Karla Thompson's B.C. rink might well be placed in the "challengers" category after a remarkable provincial run, one that included rebounding from a 7-0 deficit to beat Kelly Scott in a page playoff game, then hammering Scott in the final 11-3. However, their season's record is a less than impressive 19 and 14 and they need to make it out of pre-qualifying first.

THE OVERVIEW

Don't we all firmly believe that Jennifer Jones wants to be regarded as the best skip women's curling has ever seen? Part of that trajectory would mean tying, and then surpassing Colleen Jones' record of six Canadian titles as a skip. The two teams most likely to keep Jones from winning a sixth - Team Sweeting and Team Homan - aren't here. Team Carey, we know, could give them a tussle. After that, there are a few teams that might be able to do the same, but only if they catch fire at precisely the right moment.

THE WINNER?

Jones and her Team Canada rink.

TO SEE AN INTERACTIVE MAP WITH ALL SCOTTIES TEAMS AND THEIR CLUB LOCATIONS, CLICK HERE