Lawrie just the latest in long line of Jays’ supposed phenoms

It's late August and the Blue Jays are out of the pennant race again. But - and stop us if you've heard this one before - there's a new saviour in town, a young new star who's ready to take the major leagues by storm. Just in time for the season to wind down, as the Jays' marketing efforts turn to 2012, here's Brett Lawrie, the anointed Next One, come to save the day.

If you follow baseball, or read a paper in Canada that has a sports section, you've inevitably heard Lawrie's name over and over for the last three weeks. Ever since he was called up from Triple-A, he's been the topic du jour for a bunch of reasons:

-He's Canadian

-He had a hit in his first at-bat

-He went 5-11 in his first series against Baltimore

-He hit a grand slam in his fifth game in the big leagues

That's all it took for everybody who follows or covers Canadian baseball to lose their objectivity and start chronicling the career of the sure-bet Next Canadian Star. Never mind Joey Votto, last year's National League MVP; Lawrie's the new kid on the block and the next great thing in Canadian ball.

If any of this seems familiar, there's good reason. The Blue Jays gave this treatment to Travis Snider, and Kyle Drabek, and Aaron Hill, and Adam Lind, and Alex Rios, and any other young kid with the ability to go 3-for-4 or pitch 7 innings in late summer games of little consequence. In 2011, it's Lawrie, and to make things even better, he's Canadian. It's almost unpatriotic to question his coronation.

Lawrie was acquired from Milwaukee last year for Shawn Marcum, a pitcher who's never won more than 13 games in a season. Lawrie's off to a great start, for sure; he's hitting .333 in his first 22 games in the Show. But baseball's a game of stats, so here are some other stats:

-of those 22 games, 15 were against teams with losing records

-the teams Lawrie's played against are a combined 41 games under .500

-the Blue Jays have only played one team with even a chance at a playoff spot

Lawrie has a reputation for cockiness - one which goes back to his early days in British Columbia. It's that cockiness which appears to have greased his path out of Milwaukee. A profile in the Globe and Mail made clear that Lawrie didn't think much of following the traditional path to the majors.

For his part, he thinks the Blue Jays organization is a much better fit.

We'd be remiss here if we didn't point out that the dress code-minded Brewers, at 81-54, have a 10.5 game lead in the National League's Central Division, and the fourth-best record in the majors (and third-most wins); the Blue Jays are 67-67 and are going to miss the playoffs for the 18^th year in a row.

Sure, there are lots of reasons to think Lawrie's best is ahead of him. After all, who comes into the majors as a highly-touted 20 year-old and hits .300?

Well, Travis Snider did. In fact, his rookie numbers looked a lot like Lawrie's do. And it sure looks like his Blue Jay career is over, a scant three years later.

It would be cynical to suggest that part of Lawrie's hype has something to do with the Blue Jays' marketing efforts. That is, it would be cynical, if team president Paul Beeston hadn't basically come right out and said it.

So here we have it again, another September of meaningless baseball in Toronto, and another month where fans are asked to look to the future, to dream of what might be. There's a new star in town, and he's brash, he's young, and he's the future of the team. If you've heard it all before, this time, it'll be different.

Or not.

follow Andrew McKay on Twitter @apmckay