Can Canada follow Olympic success with Paralympic success?

The 2014 Paralympics start in Sochi, Russia on Friday, and Canada will have a significant presence there. 54 Canadian athletes (counting five guides for skiing athletes with visual impairments) will be taking part in these Games, led by chef de mission Ozzie Sawicki and flagbearer Sonja Gaudet. As with the Olympics, there are high expectations for Canada's Paralympic athletes, and Canadians will be watching: there will be more Canadian coverage of these Games via CBC, Sportsnet, Yahoo and other outlets than ever before (a broadcast schedule is available here). Sawicki, who was the head coach of the Canadian para-alpine skiing team from 2000-2004 and has since worked with Canadian para-athletics and para-equestrian organizations, has plenty of experience at the Paralympics, as he's been involved in four previous Games, including leading the para-alpine skiing team to 12 of Canada's 15 medals at the 2002 Games. Thus, it's interesting that he speaks so highly of this version of the Canadian team:

How well is Canada realistically expected to do? Well, that top-three goal won't be easy. Canada has competed in 10 Winter Paralympic Games and has only finished in the top three countries in total medal count once, thanks to a third-place finish (in both total medals and golds) four years ago on home turf in Vancouver. 2010 saw Canada pick up 10 gold and 19 total medals, though, both Canadian records for a Winter Paralympics, and that might not have been just thanks to home-field advantage. The longer-term trend at the Winter Paralympics is positive for Canada, as both Salt Lake City and Turin resulted in sixth-place finishes overall by number of golds won, a significant step up from 15th in Nagano in 1998 and 14th in Lillehammer in 1994. (Interestingly enough on the total-medal front, Canada won 15 medals in both 1998 and 2002, but the number of available medals dropped from 367 to 276, making that latter performance much more valuable. The Vancouver totals are even more impressive when you consider that only 192 medals were awarded there. The Paralympics seems to have undergone the opposite trend of the Olympics' medal inflation.)

No total medal count for Sochi seems available at the moment, but there are 72 events across five sports (alpine skiing, biathlon, cross-country skiing, curling and sledge hockey); if three medals are awarded for each event, that would be 216, so a relatively similar total to 2010. Thus, Canada will probably need at least 19 medals and perhaps more to finish top-three. That's certainly possible, but it won't be easy, especially as home field won't be an advantage for Canada this time around. The Russians are traditionally strong in the Paralympics, finishing with the most medals in both 2006 (33) and 2010 (38), and they'll be exceptionally tough to beat on their home turf.

Of course, these Paralympics are playing out against the backdrop of conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimea region, and that's led to Canada, the U.S., Britain and other countries all cancelling their governmental delegations to the Paralympics in protest of Russia's actions. The International Paralympic Committee is concerned about the situation, too, issuing a statement to that effect this week. For now, though, no one seems set to pull athletes out, so the Games will go on, and Canadian athletes will try to make good on that ambitious goal of a top-three finish. Canada didn't quite hit the Canadian Olympic Committee's target of more medals than Vancouver in this year's Olympics, falling just short with 25 versus 26; we'll see if the Paralympic team can hit their goal.