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Can Canada win the Women's World Cup? Head coach John Herdman thinks so
One of the big questions around Canada's hosting of the FIFA Women's World Cup, which kicks off Saturday, is how well the home team will do. A deep run or even a championship appearance by the Canadian side could be critical to ticket sales, TV ratings, and general popular interest, but a quick exit might raise some big questions about this team going forward. What's likely ahead for Canada? Well, that depends on who you ask.
On the one side, there are the external doubters. The most recent edition of FIFA's Women's World Rankings has Canada eighth in the world, and they're far from the favourites, with the U.S., Germany and Japan all taking support there. Some smart analysts, including USA Today's Martin Rogers and ESPNw's Julie Foudy, don't even have the Canadians finishing first in their group. Even those who see Canada advancing as far as the semifinals (a group that includes Sports Illustrated's Grant Wahl, Equalizer Soccer's Jeff Kassouf and Dan Lauletta and Canadian Soccer News' Duane Rollins in his best-case scenario) see them bowing out there, which would be roughly on par with their third-place finish in the 2012 London Olympics. While that would be a tremendous accomplishment given Canada's low pre-tournament ranking and the improving quality of the field, it's still not the top goal. No one appears to think Canada can win the tournament; no one outside the dressing room, that is.
Inside the dressing room, it's a different story. Canadian head coach John Herdman told journalists Friday that his team is focused not on participating, not on making a good showing, but on lifting the trophy at the end of the tournament.
"If (FIFA president) Sepp Blatter had been abducted by aliens, I wouldn't have known. And really wouldn't have put any attention on it either," the Canada coach said Friday on the eve of the women's World Cup. "You control your attention. And the only thing we're putting our attention on at this point is being the best we can be to represent our country.
"So I'm not interested in FIFA's image. I'm not interested what this does for the global image of the game. What I'm interested in is this team winning a World Cup, which will change our country. It'll change sport in our country and it will inspire a new generation of people to play our game — coaches and athletes. And that's the only purpose we have."
Those are strong words from Herdman, but the coach who's played such a crucial role in the elevation of this program since the disaster of the 2011 Women's World Cup knows perhaps better than anyone if that's a realistic goal. In some ways, it's far from out of the realm of possibility. Canada's roster includes one of the world's greatest female soccer players in striker Christine Sinclair, a deep cast of veterans that have turned into impressive contributors (especially midfielders Sophie Schmidt and Desiree Scott and goalkeeper Erin McLeod), and some young players who seem set to make a big-time impact, such as defender Kadeisha Buchanan and striker Adriana Leon. The team is coming in off a strong 1-0 tuneup win over England last week, which featured a stunning goal from Schmidt, and while they're still far from favourites, they may be an appealing dark horse. FiveThirtyEight's data-driven predictions give Canada a seven per cent chance of winning the tournament, fifth-best overall. It's going to take some doing to get there, but it's far from inconceivable.
If the Canadians win this tournament or even makes a strong run to the semifinals, their offence will be a big part of the reason why. Herdman wrote in The Globe and Mail earlier this week about the lessons his team's taken from Canada's hockey culture, including quick rushes and counterattacks, physicality and control in dangerous areas. He mentioned in the same piece that he takes his inspiration from former Newcastle United manager Kevin Keegan's attacking style, and that he wants "to ask my players for a second, a third and a fourth goal" even when leading. Canada has plenty of midfield playmakers, including Schmidt, Kaylyn Kyle and Diana Matheson, and some impressive strikers with Sinclair, Leon, Melissa Tancredi and others. If they can fill the net, that will go a long way for the Canadians.
It's not all offence, though, as the likes of Scott, Buchanan and McLeod have proven very adept at stopping other team's top players. Canada looks like a pretty balanced squad, and while they don't have the star power beyond Sinclair of some other sides, they have a deep and well-rounded unit with plenty of players who could step up into bigger roles. Will that be enough to let them win it all? Those outside the locker room don't think so, but Herdman does. We'll get a good glimpse of who's right once the group stage gets underway: Canada plays Saturday against China (4 p.m. Eastern), Thursday against New Zealand (9 p.m. Eastern) and Monday, June 15 against the Netherlands (7:30 p.m. Eastern). Will they get off to a flying start and silence the critics, or will some of the outside skepticism prove justified? We'll find out.
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