Blue Jays by the numbers: Middling May puts Toronto in challenging but not impossible hole

It's only fitting that the Toronto Blue Jays' May ended with another frustrating one-run loss. Sunday's 6-5 loss to the Twins was the Blue Jays' ninth loss in their last 15 games and the seventh in which they came up just one run short.

This latest crushing defeat dropped Toronto to 23-29 on the season. Their 3-12 record in one-run games suggests they've been unlucky to date, though some of that misfortune falls on a suspect bullpen as a well as a few costly defensive miscues.

Even with Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin playing at an All-Star level, the postseason outlook at this point is predictably grim for the Blue Jays but there is at least a little hope.

Going back to 2010, two teams won their division and made the playoffs with a winning percentage worse than Toronto's .442 through two months of play: the 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers and the 2012 Oakland Athletics.

So what can the Blue Jays draw from the past?

Well, the 2013 Dodgers and 2012 A's early season issues were different than Toronto's. Both Los Angeles and Oakland were struggling to score runs while the Blue Jays are a particularly poor pitching team.

Here's a look at how the three teams stacked up in terms of runs per game, runs against per game, and run differential entering June:

And now here's how the Dodgers and Athletics fared over the following four months:

What's encouraging for the Jays is that they're already way ahead in terms of run differential. The catch is that you can argue it's more difficult to get hot on the mound than at the plate and it's hard to imagine Toronto will improve offensively like the other two did with their run prevention as the season wore on.

It's also noteworthy that Los Angeles and Oakland went on their runs without making a major transaction. The Dodgers traded for starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco and signed free agent reliever Brian Wilson while the A's didn't make a significant roster move before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Given Toronto's run prevention disadvantage detailed above, Alex Anthopoulos and his front office would be wise to seek upgrades for the rotation and the bullpen.

The Blue Jays also have the sorry state of the AL East on their side. For as badly as they've played of late, Toronto is still only 3 1/2 games back of the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, the co-leaders in the division, which means they don't have to make up as much ground in the standings as their predecessors did.

The Dodgers and A's had to win almost 65% of their remaining games. Toronto might be able to get away with a little less than that because 88 wins might be enough to take the division title. With their run differential of plus-25, which is by far the best mark in the AL East and is the second best total in all of the American League, so don't count them out yet.

Much of that positive run differential is built on the strength of 10-4 record in games decided by five or more runs. When they're on, there isn't another lineup in baseball that rivals Toronto's power and production.

Yes, just two of the 48 teams that played in the playoffs since 2010 were in a more precarious position than the Blue Jays currently are but it shows that while it's admittedly unlikely, reaching the postseason is still a possibility. They can ask Donaldson too, as he began his rise to stardom as a breakout late season performer with the 2012 A's.

The Blue Jays are in better shape than the Dodgers and Athletics were at the exact same point of the season. As of Monday FanGraphs has their playoffs odds at 16.5% while Sports Club Stats gives them a 28.2% chance to make make the postseason.

It's not much and the margin for error is slim to none, but it has been done before. It sure won't be easy though.

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Israel Fehr is a writer for Yahoo Canada Sports. Email him at israelfehr@yahoo.ca or follow him on Twitter. Follow @israelfehr