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By the numbers: Aaron Sanchez decision approaching for Blue Jays

israel fehr

Aaron Sanchez gave the Blue Jays little choice but to make him a starter following an offseason of strength training and strong performances in spring training. Now his success through the first third of the season is giving them little choice but to evaluate how long he'll stay in the rotation.

That a decision is coming is certain. Manager John Gibbons confirmed on the ESPN Baseball Tonight podcast that Sanchez, who is 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA, will end up in the bullpen at some point this season:

We’re still in discussion right now what that actual number is before we bump him to the ‘pen, but it’s gonna happen. For safety reasons, health reasons, he’s going to end up down there, but what that’s going to do is give us a real shot in the arm down there as well.

That was the plan, if we were going to use him in the rotation there’s going to be a time this year that he’s got to go to the bullpen. He really hasn’t thrown a whole lot the last couple of years because we’ve been using him out of the bullpen.

When, however, remains a question. Sanchez has pitched 85 1/3 innings over 13 starts. He pitched 109.1 innings last year between Toronto, regular season and playoffs, and his minor-league rehab asssignment. The 23-year-old right-hander's career-high for innings in a season came in 2014 at 133 1/3 innings, also split between the majors and minors.

So what are the Blue Jays to do? The generally accepted innings increase for a pitcher that's still developing is around 20 percent per season. With that in mind, here are how a few of those potential scenarios would look like.

SEASONS

INNINGS

20% INCREASE

2016 INNINGS

2015

109.1

21

~ 130

2014-15 (AVG)

121.1

24

~ 145

2014

133.1

27

~ 160

 

Given that Sanchez has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his 13 starts and seven innings in six of the 13, he'd likely hit the most cautious estimate as a starter around early August (seven more starts) and the most optimistic estimate by late August (11 more starts).

That's not taking into account any innings he might pitch out of the bullpen, though. When Sanchez returned from injury for the final two months of the 2015 season as a reliever, he threw 26 1/3 innings in 30 appearances and tacked on 7 1/3 innings in the postseason, which combined comes out to close to 2 2/3 innings per week.

As Yahoo's Jeff Passan details in his book "The Arm" the handling and health of pitchers is an inexact science, and the 20 percent increase is a rough guideline without any scientific backing. General manager Ross Atkins has said the organization will use "objective and subjective" measures, not a cut-and-dry innings limit to identify what to do with Sanchez.

What the Blue Jays can do in the short-term is best take advantage of the off days to adjust their rotation so Sanchez has the benefit of being pushed back while the rest of the starters remain on regular rest. They can also lean on on Drew Hutchison, who has pitched well in Triple-A (3.12 ERA in 12 starts), to make a spot start or two like he did in late April.

The Sanchez conundrum tops the list of internal challenges Toronto faces as they fight to keep pace with the Orioles and Red Sox in the American League East. He's still in the rotation, and stacking up wins, for now, but the Blue Jays know time is ticking on that current setup.

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Israel Fehr is a writer for Yahoo Canada Sports. Email him at israelfehr@yahoo.ca or follow him on Twitter. Follow @israelfehr