2016 Brier: Contenders, challengers and long shots

This should be easy, right? Scan the 2016 Brier field - some call it the best line-up of teams ever - and pick four teams most likely to be in playoff spots at the end of the week.

Yikes.

In this field, you can make a case for each of seven teams to be playoff squads, maybe even eight or nine if you really wanted to be bullish about it.

The 2016 Brier, getting underway this weekend in Ottawa, should be one for the ages. In a field bursting at the seams with quality teams, we will be entertained by shot-making prowess as well as the intrigue of jockeying for position amidst a draw schedule that is peppered with peril at most every turn. Would anyone be surprised if we see a clutch of tie-breakers to decide the final couple of playoff spots?

"Contenders" are my picks to make the playoffs. "Challengers" are teams seen as more than capable of striking should any contender falter. "Long Shots" are just what you'd think.

Need to make some picks, so here they come. May God have mercy on my soul.

Note: Team rankings come from the World Curling Tour's (WCT) Order of Merit year-to-date standings.

CONTENDERS

In season two, the super team is chugging along. Alberta, skipped by Kevin Koe, looks to rebound after missing the playoffs at last year's Brier. After trying a set-up that saw second Brent Laing hold the broom on Koe's shots, they have settled on a more traditional look of having third Marc Kennedy do the housekeeping duties on fourth stones. It suits them well. The world's number two ranked team has a record of 55 and 15 (according to statistics found at CurlingZone.com), with five wins in ten events, including the Perth Masters, in January. They beat Mike McEwen in the Canada Cup final and Brad Gushue in the final of the Tour Challenge. After they play Ontario in their opener, Koe's team then meets New Brunswick, PEI and the relegation qualifier, so if there's any sluggishness to start, they should be able to get away with it.

Manitoba will finally, at long last, have Mike McEwen's "best team never to play in a Brier" in the field, after a gutting out a tough provincial finals win over curling's next budding superstar, Matt Dunstone. After five provincial finals losses, McEwen and his third-ranked rink aren't having the same unbelievable season that they had in 2014-15, but they are having a dandy one nonetheless. Four wins in eleven events including a Masters victory over Jim Cotter and a Stu Sells Toronto win over Glenn Howard. They're not quite as invincible as they were a year ago but their 52-21 record is the mark of a serious, serious contender. Wouldn't expect this team to exhale and feel "just happy to be here."

With a record of 73 and 13, Brad Gushue's Newfoundland & Labrador team has had a splendid season and they are ranked number one in the world. Including their provincial championship, Gushue and company have won seven of twelve events this season. That includes a victory at The Grand Slam of Curling's The National, back in November, and they might have won The Masters, too, had John Epping not victimized them in an incredible weekend of shot making. When third Mark Nichols returned to Gushue's side last season, it settled things down for the skip. Their front end (Brett Gallant and Geoff Walker) is as big and strong as any in the field and they can hold the line or drag a rock with the best of them. Without directional fabric, that matters big time.

Northern Ontario's Team Brad Jacobs (ranked 7th) has just one win in ten events this season, that being the Northern Ontario Tankard. They do have four semi-final losses as well. However, in the big events, they've been punted in the quarter-finals or worse. Those tournaments include the The Masters, The National and The Tour Challenge. They missed the playoffs at The Canadian Open and struggled to a record of 3 and 4 at The Canada Cup. Now, this might all mean the 2014 Olympic champions are having an off-season, that's true. With this crew, though, it also means they've got something to prove again and when that happens, they tend to find a higher gear. It took a draw to the button by Pat Simmons to beat them in last year's final.

CHALLENGERS

Saskatchewan's champs, skipped by Steve Laycock, could easily have come to rest in the "contenders" pile. Bronze medallists last year, they are ranked 6th in the world right now and can play the hitting game with the best. They have two wins in ten events to their credit, with a semi-final finish at The Masters and a quarter-final finish at The Canadian Open. However, they finished out of the playoffs at The Canada Cup and The Tour Challenge. If one of the four up there in Contendertown falters, I'd expect this would be the team that's likeliest to be in the position to scoop a playoff spot. Their opening game against Northern Ontario could set the tone for the week.

The defending champs, skipped by Pat Simmons are lightly-played this season, but that's by design. “We find it’s easy to get burnt out, chasing points every weekend,” third John Morris said, last fall, when discussing how moose hunting gets him prepared for a curling season. They overcame a terrible start at last year's Brier, rearranged their line-up and rallied to win it all in one of the more captivating stories of the season. Ranked 17th in the world, they were not a force in the first half of the year, but did beat a good field at the Golden Wrench Classic in Arizona, in January.

The team that Simmons' squad beat in the final of the Golden Wrench represents British Columbia here for the second straight time (third Brier in a row for the skip Jim Cotter, as well as lead Rick Sawatsky and second Tyrel Griffith). Ranked 14th in the world, this rink has a record of 36 and 9 this season. They lost to McEwen in the final of The Masters and won the Tour Challenge's Tier II event, in September. Cotter's a sharp-eyed shooter who rarely gets outplayed by his fourth stone counterpart.

After a two year absence, Glenn Howard returns to the Brier as Ontario's representative, making his 16th appearance at nationals. The team that started the year with Wayne Middaugh at third comes into The Brier with Adam Spencer in the line-up instead of Middaugh, who suffered a broken leg in a skiing accident before the Ontario Tankard. Spencer had a terrific provincial championship at second, and he boosted the team's sweeping power. With third Rich Hart back in his familiar role as Sundance to Howard's Butch Cassidy, this team will not be outsmarted. Ranked 9th in the world, their only wins in nine events came in the Ontario playdowns. Best Grand Slam finish: A semi-final loss at The National.

Quebec's Jean-Michel Ménard skips another team that has plenty of Brier experience but has stuck to its preference to play a lighter schedule throughout the rest of the year. In their only Grand Slam appearance, they finished out of the playoffs at The National. Ménard keeps tinkering with the formula, trying to get back to the top of the podium as he did in 2006. Last year, his team altered its general strategy in a bid to win. This year, they've arrived at the Brier site early, hitting practice ice to try and avoid a slow start. This team is ranked 24th in the world.

LONG SHOTS

New Brunswick (Mike Kennedy)  and Prince Edward Island are in this group, but any team that takes Adam Casey's PEI crew too lightly could be in for a rude awakening. The team is ranked 21st in the world and has missed the playoffs at the big events in which its played (Canadian Open, Tour Challenge for example) but they are capable of upsets. Nova Scotia (Jamie Murphy), Yukon (Robert Smallwood), Northwest Territories (Jamie Koe) and Nunavut (Wade Kingdon) will play ahead of the main draw to see who gets the one available berth that remains. You know Koe can upset the odd apple cart if he gets through.

THE OVERVIEW

Very few gimmes on the schedule. It's gonna be a slobberknocker.

THE WINNER

Yeah, this should be easy. (Closes eyes, spins and fires a dart)

Well, After all these years, Leo DiCaprio finally won an Oscar. And we all know he took a physical beating to finally get it. Gushue took a beating earlier this season, too, remember? Outside the symmetry of that, it just so happens Gushue has his best ever Brier line-up, having its best season. It'd be something if he finally won nationals - on his 13th attempt - emerging from this incredible field.

TO SEE AN INTERACTIVE MAP OF THE BRIER TEAMS AND THEIR HOME CLUBS CLICK HERE