Which defence is better, Hamilton's or Edmonton's?

Friday's CFL game between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Edmonton Eskimos (9 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN3) sets up as a matchup of top defences, and both of these teams' defences have been very good. Qualitative analyses of the various players and matchups, such as this one from CFL.ca's Jamie Nye, haven't been able to find much between them. What about a quantitative analysis, though? To do that, I examined the CFL's league stats after eight weeks, which track 25 different defensive categories. They suggest that, by the numbers recorded to date at least, one of these defences has been substantially better.

The surface-level analysis is just comparing how many of those 25 categories each team leads, and that leads to an easy victor: Edmonton leads 14 to Hamilton's four. However, it's important to consider not just who's at the top in a given category, but where the other team ranks in the category in question. Towards that goal, I converted the Ticats' and Eskimos' relative standings in every category into numerical values from one to nine; nine means they're leading the category, one means they're last. (If a team was tied for a position, they receive the highest value possible for that tie; thus, a tie for second earns eight points, not seven.) I then summed each team's values across all categories, which gave Edmonton 196 points to Hamilton's 167.

That's not as wide of a gap as 14 to four, but it does suggest that the Eskimos' defence is stronger overall. Even in categories where they're not on top, they're often well-ranked. They only have two categories where they earned five points or less (fewest passes attempted and average gain per rush), while the Ticats have five. Also, the Eskimos are tied for first in one of the categories Hamilton leads (most interceptions), they're second in two more (most interception return yards and fewest times rushed), and they're third in another (fewest yards net rushing). So, even where the Tiger-Cats are strongest, the Eskimos are still pretty good.

There are a few caveats to consider here. For one thing, some of the categories in question aren't really under a team's control (for example, how many times an opponent throws or rushes against them). The numbers of plays run against teams from scrimmage can also impact net rushing and passing yards, but Hamilton and Edmonton have had similar numbers run against them (537 to 535). Some of the categories also overlap, so the 14 to four lead may not be as daunting as it seems. Still, on the whole, it does seem that the Eskimos' defence has been statistically superior to date.

This doesn't necessarily mean Edmonton's a lock to win Friday night, though. While their defence may be better, Hamilton's defence is still very good, and the Tiger-Cats' offence has been much more productive to date. Hamilton leads the CFL with 243 points for, while Edmonton's fourth with 180. The discrepancy's less notable in yards of offence per game (the Ticats are third with 350.6, while the Esks are fourth with 336.7), but Hamilton's particularly good in the passing game, averaging 9.1 yards per pass (best in the league), while Edmonton isn't (7.2 yards per pass, second-worst in the CFL). Thus, the Eskimos' defence is likely facing a bigger challenge than the Ticats' is, especially in the passing game. We'll see if a tough defence is enough for Edmonton to pull out a win, or if Hamilton's more-well-rounded approach will pay off Friday.