Where do the CFL's projected 2015 starting quarterbacks come from?

The Toronto Argonauts' decision to cut former Alabama Crimson Tide star quarterback Blake Sims Sunday, just nine days after they signed him, may make him the next entry on the list of big-name NCAA quarterbacks who have tried and failed to stick around in the CFL. That's a long list, including the likes of Troy Smith, Chris Leak and Tate Forcier. Most managed to last a little longer than Sims, but in the end, all of their high-level NCAA experience didn't lead them to CFL success. Meanwhile, lots of relatively-unheralded NCAA players have turned into great CFL quarterbacks. When I examined this in 2012, only three of the league's eight starting quarterbacks came from the NCAA's then-six BCS automatic qualification conferences, and those players came from Iowa, North Carolina and Temple, not the biggest of powerhouses. Three of the other starting quarterbacks came from the next tier, FBS non-AQ schools, and two came from FCS, another level down. That's a long way from being a successful starter for a school like Alabama.

It's a similar story in 2015, even if the alignment is a little different. With the demise of the BCS, the NCAA's top level (Division I FBS) now has five power conferences and then a bunch of mid-majors. Here's how the CFL's projected 2015 starters stack up in terms of where they played college football:

The 2015 map is shifted even more towards guys from less-famed football schools than the 2012 one was. The new quarterbacks that have emerged are mostly from mid-majors (Collaros, Willy), FCS (Mitchell) and even Division II (Reilly). The one exception is Crompton, who played for a great program in a top conference (the same one Sims competed in). Oddly enough, he also may have the most tenuous grip on a starting job of any of these quarterbacks. Thus, this data bodes pretty well for quarterbacks from less-prominent schools, and not so well for those from powerful programs.

(There are a couple of minor notes to consider with this data. Ray may not actually start the season for Toronto given his injury issues, but he seems like the clear starter if healthy, and Mitchell started his college career at mid-major SMU before transferring to FCS Eastern Washington. Moreover, the change from the BCS to the College Football Playoff system has left Temple (Henry Burris' alma mater) as a have-not rather than a have, as the American (which emerged from the wreckage of the Big East) is no longer in the top tier. (It's notable that the Owls were actually kicked out of the old Big East in 2004 and didn't return to the conference until 2012, though, so mid-major is probably more reflective of their status, even though they were technically in a more powerful conference when Burris played there. His last season was 1996, though, before the BCS era, so AQ isn't quite accurate either.)

Why does the CFL have so many more starting quarterbacks from non-powerhouse NCAA programs? Well, there may be a couple of things going on there. Consider that the NFL is taking what they consider to be the cream of the crop of NCAA quarterbacks, and many of those guys are from powerful programs. Thus, players like Sims aren't necessarily the best quarterbacks from their level; they're the ones the NFL didn't want for one reason or another. Now, the NFL also didn't take the guys from lower down who wound up in the CFL, but it also seems likely that they didn't scout them quite as heavily. Thus, the chances of finding a raw gem would seem greater with the available players from less well-known schools than with the NFL's leftovers from powerful programs.

It also could be that players from lower levels are less set in their ways and more open to adapting to the vast differences in the CFL game. Adjusting to 12 players on a side (which involves drastically relearning what you know about route combinations and coverage schemes) can be tough, as can adapting to a three-down game, a bigger field and the rest of the CFL's quirks. Theoretically at least, it may be easier for someone who wasn't such a big college star to move on from what they did at that level. Of course, it's also possible that who's wound up as a CFL starter is more about the individual players involved and that the level they played at in college doesn't have any large overlapping effect. We also don't know the total populations here; yes, more CFL starters are coming from smaller schools, but how does that compare to the overall pool of CFL quarterbacks? If the majority of the league's quarterbacks are signed from smaller schools, this might not be quite as surprising.

In any rate, it does seem clear that being a big-name NCAA quarterback from a powerhouse school isn't necessarily a ticket to success in the CFL. Sims certainly found that out this week, and many others have before him. We'll see if he gets another shot at breaking the curse of the well-known NCAA quarterback, or if we'll have to rely on someone else. There are a few other interesting quarterbacks from top FBS schools currently on CFL rosters, including former Oregon and Ole Miss quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (Hamilton) and former Missouri quarterback James Franklin (Edmonton). We'll find out down the road if they ever get much of a chance as starters, or if this will be a league where QBs from lesser-known schools continue to steal the spotlight.