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Playoff Preview: Will the Riders or Eskimos be able to find any offence in the cold Sunday?

How Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium looked earlier this week. It's expected to stay cold, which could affect Sunday's West semifinal.
How Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium looked earlier this week. It's expected to stay cold, which could affect Sunday's West semifinal.

The CFL playoffs are upon us, and with them comes the return of our Playoff Preview series for its fifth year. This season's playoff action gets underway Sunday, with the Montreal Alouettes hosting the B.C. Lions in the East semifinal at 1 p.m. Eastern (TSN/ESPN3) and the Edmonton Eskimos hosting the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the West semifinal at 4:30 p.m. Eastern (TSN/ESPN2). Here's a look at how Saskatchewan and Edmonton match up; see also our preview of B.C.-Montreal.

Saskatchewan offence: Two 41-year-old quarterbacks The Riders' offence has really struggled this year, suffering the second-highest drop in the league in points per game and yards per game. That's been thanks to the issues with the passing offence, which fell more this season (-70.7 yards per game) than anyone else's. Part of that's thanks to the September injury that has knocked out starting quarterback Darian Durant, but Saskatchewan's offence actually put up 9.8 yards more per game after Week 12 (scroll to the bottom right of the sheet to see that), showing that it wasn't just the quarterback that was the issue. 41-year-old Kerry Joseph, who only joined the team in October, has proven more capable than the other options, but  the Riders' passing game looked awful in their final-week win over Edmonton regardless of who played, and the team would still love to have a higher-ceiling alternative in Durant. Unfortunately for them, it looks like Durant will only be available for backup duty Sunday, so Joseph is getting the start. That, plus the cold weather forecast for Sunday, suggests the aerial attack may stay in the form that saw Saskatchewan finish last in the league in passing yards (195.6). The ground game has been better, averaging 132.2 yards per game (third-best in the CFL), but they've rotated through a ton of backs there without finding a definite solution. For the Riders to do much on offence on Sunday, they'll likely have to be great at pounding the ball.

Saskatchewan defence: Three great pass-rushersThe Riders' defence does one thing exceptionally well: sacking opposing quarterbacks. They recorded a league-high 61 sacks, and defensive end John Chick led the CFL with 15 sacks. Saskatchewan is also decent against the pass in general, allowing 7.3 yards per pass (third-best in the league) and 245.9 passing yards per game (fifth-best), although they did give up the second-most completions (385) and the third-highest completion percentage (63.8 per cent). However, the Riders have struggled against the run, allowing 5.9 yards per rush (tied for worst in the league) and the third-highest rushing yards per game (115.4). That's led to bad overall numbers; they're conceding the third-most yards (331.8) and the fourth-most points (24.5) per game. On a cold day where the run may be emphasized even more than usual, that could be problematic.

Saskatchewan special teams: Four impressive returnsReturner Tristan Jackson had a solid season, leading the league in combined return yardage with 1,531 yards. However, kicker Chris Milo has struggled, hitting just 71.4 per cent of his field goals (ninth-best in the league), and Josh Bartel's 43.5 yards-per-punt average is okay, but not great.

Edmonton offence: Three injured quarterbacksWith divisional all-star Mike Reilly under centre and healthy, this grade would go up, but the Eskimos plan to start seldom-used backup Matt Nichols thanks to an injury to Reilly (believed to be a broken foot), and even if Reilly does play (he's expected to dress), he may not have the mobility that's his strength. Nichols has shown potential, but looked very rusty last week. Fortunately, Edmonton has one of the CFL's best ground games with John White (and occasionally others); the Eskimos led the league with 363.8 yards of offence per game, and while Reilly's play was a part of that, their league-best 6.4 yards per rush and 136.8 rushing yards per game (second-best in the CFL) were a big factor. The Esks will need the ground game to shine again Sunday.

Edmonton defence: Five incredible team returnsDefence was a focus for the Eskimos this season under new head coach and defensive coordinator Chris Jones, and they've executed his unconventional blitz-heavy scheme brilliantly. Edmonton allowed the least yards (279.4, almost 35 below of their nearest competitor) and points (18.9) per game. The Eskimos really shone against the pass, allowing league lows in completion rate (54.7 per cent), gain per pass (6.7) and passing yards per game (206.7), while recording the most interceptions in the CFL (21) and the second-most sacks (55). There are tons of great playmakers here, from end Odell Willis to tackle Almondo Sewell to linebackers J.C. Sherritt and Dexter McCoil, and Jones'  scheme utilizes them very well indeed.

Edmonton special teams: Three ferocious beardsEdmonton's kicking game has been iffy since Grant Shaw (who made a solid 85.2 per cent iof his field goals this year) suffered a season-ending torn pectoral muscle in September. Bearded wonder Hugh O'Neill has only made 20 of his 26 attempts, 76.9 per cent. O'Neill's a good punter, though, averaging 44.4 yards per punt, and the return game has seen some great highlights from the likes of Kendial Lawrence.

Add them up: Saskatchewan 9, Edmonton 11. 

X-Factor: The cold. It's expected to be between -7 and -14 degrees Celsius Sunday (19 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit), which could have a big impact on the game. Passing's exceptionally difficult under those conditions, but some passing will be needed to survive, so who can do that better may matter. The ball also becomes tough to hang on to, so turnovers will be key. Cold may also affect the fans; low numbers of tickets have been sold so far. Saskatchewan normally has a good travelling fanbase, but will that happen under these conditions? Will the Eskimos' own fans show up? We'll find out Sunday.

Prediction: Edmonton 24, Saskatchewan 21. This sets up as a cold and sloppy slugfest, but the Eskimos' defence gives them the edge, and Nichols slightly outduels Joseph.

Also check out our East semifinal preview.