Will the CFL’s regular season start on time? Well, the oddsmakers think so…

The crucial CFL-CFLPA talks last week appear to have made some progress, but there are still plenty of issues to resolve, and the clock is running out. Rookie camps open in just over a week on May 28, and while those can go ahead without a new collective bargaining agreement (as rookies aren't in the union yet), the current CBA expires May 30. Full training camps are expected to start June 1, but if a deal hasn't been reached or isn't close, players may well elect to strike, potentially affecting those camps, preseason games and the start of the regular season. Interestingly enough, though, despite the deep divides that appear to remain between the CFL and the CFLPA (over everything from revenue sharing to concussion protocols), at least one Vegas oddsmaker regards a deal being reached by the start of the regular season as a strong favourite. From Bodog.ca:

That echoes earlier optimism we've seen from CFL players' agents, but it's interesting to note that it's still somewhat cautious. While the regular season starting on time is set as a strong favourite, this doesn't cover any disruption that could occur before then, from camps to preseason games. Also, if a deal is reached in mid-June, the CFL would seem far more likely to shorten camps and the preseason than risk affecting the regular-season schedule. Keeping that schedule etched in stone is critically important for everyone from the television side to fans to teams, so it's only going to be affected as a last resort.

The stakes rise significantly for the league as we approach the regular season. Shortened or abandoned veteran camps could pose a problem for teams in making roster decisions and getting prepared for the season, and missed preseason games could pose a more significant one; in addition to missing seeing how players perform in game situations, teams would also have to compensate ticket-buying fans and perhaps some of their sponsors for missed preseason games. If there are no veteran camps and only a few preseason games, the start of the CFL season might feature a lower quality of play than anyone's used to, with teams still trying to figure out their roster and approach. However, having a substandard product on display for the first few regular-season games would be far less of a blow than missing some of those regular-season games altogether. Any missed regular-season games would be a massive blow to this league from a television side, a ticket-sales and sponsorship side, and a perception side. Striking a deal partway into the season would also make for an exceptionally difficult rest of the year, as the CFL can't easily move games around, but whatever part of the existing schedule remains would likely have significant balance concerns. Thus, there's huge incentive for the league to get a deal done by the start of the regular season, and that's probably why this is so heavily favoured.

The key question for the CFL to address in the next few weeks is if the short-term pain of a disrupted season is worth the long-term gain of a new CBA that's very favourable to owners (and very hard on players). The NBA and NHL have both gone that route in the last few years, missing partial and whole seasons respectively to earn owner-favouring agreements, and it hasn't hurt those leagues terribly in the long run. However, the CFL's situation is a bit different. It's not a league that's as financially secure as the NBA or NHL, and while it's in a good place at the moment, that place is a little more precarious. The CFL is dependent on strong fan attendance, TV numbers, sponsorship deals and merchandise sales, and all of those could be hurt substantially by a labour dispute. Moreover, unlike the NHL and NBA, the CFL season has a definitive date and location for its final game; nobody knows where the Stanley Cup final will be each year, but Grey Cup tickets have already sold out and travel plans have been made. (This also means that the league can't simply bump the season back if a few games are missed; there's a certain endpoint that can't be adjusted.)

We're a long way from a missed Grey Cup, of course, and as the odds show, we're still even a long way from missed regular season games being all that likely. Still, there are plenty of divides remaining between the CFL and the CFLPA. There's strong incentive to bridge them before the regular season; we'll see if that proves to be enough.