Breaking down the NFL's impact on the 2016 CFL draft

The NFL draft has often had a huge impact on the CFL draft, and it seems likely that will be the case again this year. Ahead of Tuesday's CFL draft (7 p.m. Eastern, TSN2/RDS2), numerous top CFL prospects have already seen interest from the NFL, including the top four prospects from the April rankings. One top CFL prospect has been drafted by the NFL, while four have signed priority undrafted free agent contracts, and several others have attended NFL tryouts. Here's a breakdown of the players who have received significant NFL attention and what it could mean for their CFL draft stock.

Player: David Onyemata, defensive lineman, Manitoba Bisons. 
April CFL prospect ranking: #1.
NFL interest: Drafted (fourth round, 120th overall, by the New Orleans Saints)
Impact on CFL stock: Mammoth. Onyemata might be the best pure talent in this CFL draft, but given that a NFL fourth-round pick is pretty significant, he's likely to spend the foreseeable future in that league. This isn't surprising, given the huge numbers of NFL scouts that showed up to Onyemata's CIS pro day and the widespread projections that he would be drafted, but it's likely to drop his CFL stock significantly. It would be highly surprising to see him go early, and he might not even be drafted at all.

Recent comparisons are all over the map, and they vary partly because of the 2013 CFL rule change that has made it so the CFL drafts players in the same year as the NFL. (For example, under the old system, current Montreal offensive lineman Philip Blake was taken in the third round of the 2011 CFL draft partly because there was already NFL interest in him, but he wasn't eligible for the NFL draft until 2012, where he went in the fourth round.) Current Dallas Cowboys' defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford was the top CFL prospect in 2012, but wasn't drafted by the CFL after being picked in the third round by the Dallas Cowboys. Current B.C. Lions linebacker Bo Lokombo fell to the third round of the CFL draft in 2013 because of NFL interest in him, even though he didn't wind up being chosen in the 2014 NFL draft.

Maybe the best comparison is Christian Covington, the top CFL prospect last year who was taken in the sixth round of the NFL draft; he then fell to the fifth round of the CFL draft. It's quite possible Onyemata will be drafted by some CFL team in order to obtain his rights on the off-chance he comes to the league someday, especially now that the CFL draft has been expanded to eight rounds, but Covington's case shows a similarly-ranked prospect falling to the fifth round with less-solid NFL interest in him. That may mean Onyemata could sink even further.

Player: Tevaun Smith, receiver, Iowa Hawkeyes.
April CFL prospect ranking: #2.
NFL interest: Signed as undrafted free agent by Indianapolis Colts.
Impact on CFL stock: Significant. Smith was the top-ranked CFL prospect until Onyemata surpassed him in the April rankings, but it's unlikely he'll go high in this draft thanks to the Colts locking him up. At 6'2'' and 201 pounds, Smith has decent size, and he definitely has speed, clocking a 4.33-second 40-yard-dash at his pro day. (For comparison, the best 40 at the CFL Combine, which Smith didn't attend, was 4.505 seconds from Queen's receiver Doug Corby.) Smith also had pretty good college production at Iowa, so if anything, it's a little surprising he wasn't picked in the NFL draft. He did receive plenty of interest as an undrafted free agent, choosing the Colts over numerous other suitors, and it seems likely he'll stick around with them until at least 53-man roster cuts in September if not longer. Thus, don't expect him to be taken near the top of the CFL draft, where his talent might otherwise make him a fit. Undrafted free agents are a little less risky to draft than guys drafted by the NFL, so it's almost certain a CFL team will take Smith, but it seems likely that will be a future-based gamble in the third round or later.

Player: Mehdi Abdesmad, defensive lineman, Boston College Eagles.
April CFL prospect ranking: #3.
NFL interest: Signed as undrafted free agent by Tennessee Titans.
Impact on CFL stock: Significant. Abdesmad was a longer shot than Smith to be drafted by the NFL, but many envisioned him as a priority undrafted free agent signing even before that draft, and it's not surprising that Tennessee snapped him up. One thing that does weigh against Abdesmad a bit is his history of knee injuries, which caused him to miss large parts of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. However, he was healthy last year, and recorded 49 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Also, while his weight (284 pounds) is a little small by NFL DE standards, he's 6'6'', so he might be able to put more muscle on in a NFL weight-training program. (Some star NFL DEs, like J.J. Watt and Cameron Wake, also are under 300 pounds, and Watt's about Abdesmad's size.) We'll see if he sticks in the NFL, but it seems like a good bet that he'll be there at least until September, and that will lower his CFL stock.

Player: Arjen Colquhoun, defensive back, Michigan State Spartans.
April CFL prospect ranking: #4.
NFL interest: Signed as undrafted free agent by Dallas Cowboys.
Impact on CFL stock: Significant. Colquhoun, who was a key part of the rising trend of Canadian players heading to the NCAA and is also an important argument for the value of satellite camps, is the top defensive back prospect in this year's CFL draft by most measures. He didn't play a ton in his first couple of years with the Spartans thanks to being behind future NFL first-rounders Darqueze Dennard and Trae Waynes, but had an excellent senior year this past season. He has good speed, decent size (6'1''), and a great 37-inch vertical. He could be an excellent ratio-buster for a CFL team, but the Cowboys' contract means he may be taken later in the CFL draft.

Player: Elie Bouka, defensive back, Calgary Dinos. April CFL prospect ranking: #18.
NFL interest: Signed as undrafted free agent by Arizona Cardinals.
Impact on CFL stock: Significant. Bouka was a bit of a suprising guy to sign as a NFL undrafted free agent, given that he both came from a CIS program (there are growing numbers of CIS guys getting NFL shots, but they still don't tend to get as many offers as guys from big NCAA schools) and wasn't all that high on the CFL draft rankings. He didn't even play last year, sitting out the season rehabbing a torn ACL he suffered in Dinos' training camp. He has been very good when healthy, though, and has shown significant versatility, starting his CIS career as a receiver before switching to defense. If the NFL wasn't targeting him, he'd be a reasonable choice in the first few rounds of the CFL draft, but like the other UDFAs above, this contract should lower his CFL stock a bit.

Other players receiving attention: Lots of other CIS prospects are getting noticed too. Laval Rouge et Or offensive lineman Charles Vaillancourt (#6 on that April CFL prospect list), Laval offensive lineman Philippe Gagnon (#9), UBC Thunderbirds' defensive back Taylor Loffler (#11), Calgary running back Mercer Timmis (#13), Queen's Golden Gaels' receiver Doug Corby (#20), Manitoba linebacker D.J. Lalama, UBC linebacker Terrell Davis, UBC kicker Quinn Van Gylswyk, and Calgary receiver Brett Blaszko (all unranked) all participated in tryouts with the New York Giants (similar to the 11 CFL prospects the Giants looked at last year, some of which may be thanks to assistant general manager Kevin Abrams being a Western Mustangs alumnus), along with plenty of unsigned NCAA players. No contracts appear to have come from that as yet, so this may not knock down the stock of these guys too much, but CFL teams will be aware that they're at least on the NFL radar. There also may be other CFL prospects who have received NFL attention that we're unaware of; feel free to point out omissions via Twitter or e-mail.

Overall, this isn't the most significant interest in CFL prospects we've ever seen; that may be from 2014, where a record-breaking four Canadian-born players were chosen in the NFL Draft, and other players like David Foucault were signed later as undrafted free agents. (Foucault is likely the reason the CFL draft has been moved further behind the NFL draft; he was undrafted by the NFL, drafted in the first round by Montreal, and then signed with the Carolina Panthers, which happened thanks to the short gap between the NFL and CFL drafts at that point). It is remarkable to see the top four CFL prospects (in a talent-alone ranking) and the 18th one all already picked up by NFL teams, though. Many, if not all of them, will likely still go in the CFL draft, but they'll go much later than talent alone would suggest. CFL teams will have to evaluate each prospect's chances of sticking in the NFL long-term and figure out what level of pick is worth gambling on them to secure their rights in case they do come to the CFL someday.