5 Blue Jays who must step up amid brutal 17-game stretch

The Toronto Blue Jays will be tested numerous times over these next few weeks as they tackle one of the most gruelling stretches of their 2023 schedule.

After receiving a pair of off days last week, the Blue Jays are currently amidst a slate where they’ll play 17 games in 17 days before their next day off arrives on May 29. What’s more challenging is that every opponent sits above .500.

Things started positively for this team, as they swept the Atlanta Braves in three games over the weekend, capping off their series victory with a walk-off win on Mother’s Day last Sunday. But they’ve since lost two of three against the New York Yankees, dropping to 25-18 on the year.

It will only get tougher from here, though, with one more game against the Yankees and a weekend set versus the Baltimore Orioles before beginning a seven-game road trip that includes stops in Tampa Bay and Minnesota, who lead their respective divisions.

Toronto will require contributions from up and down its roster to ensure it is positioned favourably coming out of this stretch, which means now is the time for a few early-season strugglers to start heating up.

Alek Manoah

2023 results: 9 starts (45.0 innings), 5.40 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 35 strikeouts, 32 walks

Heading into this season, no one could’ve predicted that Manoah would be the weakest link within the Blue Jays starting rotation across the first month and a half of the schedule. And yet, that is precisely what has transpired.

The 25-year-old has looked nothing like the dominant pitcher who finished third in AL Cy Young voting last season, with opponents hitting .275 against him. Command, by far, has been his most concerning issue, as he’s coming off a career-high seven walks in his last start.

Manoah’s swing-and-miss ability has plummeted, as his strikeout (16.4%) and whiff rates (20.5%) rank in the 14th and 15th percentiles, respectively. Hitters also aren’t offering at his pitches as frequently, causing his swing rate (44.1%) to decline by 5.3%.

The 2022 All-Star has also allowed more hard contact than ever before, raising his hard-hit (42%) and barrel rates (9.8%) to career highs. Home runs have been a problem, too, with his HR/9 (1.6) soaring to the highest of his career.

Much of that damage has come against Manoah’s slider, as its run value has dropped to plus-13 after finishing last season at minus-6, serving as his most effective strikeout weapon. This season, however, batters are hitting .368 and slugging .737 against it, generating a measly 25.3% whiff rate.

Manoah appears to be experiencing some mechanical issues with his delivery, leading to his inconsistent command. But with zero off days until the end of May, it will likely be difficult to determine his ailment before his next start on Saturday.

Plus, manager John Schneider can’t afford to continue overtaxing his bullpen during the right-hander’s starts as he falters to pitch deep into games — an area he thrived in last season, tossing at least five innings in all 31 starts.

The Blue Jays could work in a few spot starts from outside their starting five to provide Manoah with extra rest during this 17-game stretch, hoping it’ll help him clean up his mechanics. Toronto’s immediate options at triple-A Buffalo, however, currently look pretty bleak.

Still, if this franchise hopes to enjoy a deep playoff run in 2023, they’ll need to do anything possible to get Manoah looking more like his former self before the first half concludes.

George Springer

2023 Results: 41 games (178 plate appearances), 227/.292/.325, 5 home runs, 16 RBI, 74 wRC+

It is somewhat astounding the Blue Jays are positioned third in the AL East given they’ve received minuscule production from one of their main sources of offence thus far. But that should change as the season progresses.

Springer, while battling a nagging illness recently, has struggled mightily out of the gate as he’s been 26 percentage points below league average, according to wRC+. He is doing the right things at the plate, though. He just isn’t being rewarded for it.

The 33-year-old outfielder is making plenty of contact, evidenced by his career-high 82.4% clip, but has been at the forefront of some batted-ball misfortune. As a result, there is a 0.28-point discrepancy between his AVG and xAVG and 0.95 points between his SLG and xSLG.

Those figures should begin to normalize over a larger sample size, allowing Springer’s 2023 season results to improve closer to his career .267/.355/.487 slash line. And he may already be on the verge of that resurgence, as he’s gone 6-for-21 (.286 AVG) over his last five games.

Considering the Blue Jays have upcoming series against quality-hitting teams like the Orioles and Rays, this offence would surely benefit from a Springer hot streak.

Alejandro Kirk

2023 Results: 33 games (118 plate appearances), .227/.356/.320, 2 home runs, 11 RBI, 96 wRC+

After featuring the top offensive-catching duo in the majors last season, the Blue Jays are still waiting for Kirk and Danny Jansen to produce consistently in 2023, as the pair have posted a combined 84 wRC+, good for 20th in MLB.

Both players are capable of more than what they have shown early on. But with Kirk, in particular, there is an extra layer of urgency to turn his season around sooner rather than later, as he is needed to provide middle-of-the-order support.

Kirk’s spring started later than most due to the birth of his child, forcing him to withdraw from last March’s World Baseball Classic and delaying his arrival to spring training. And it appears the 24-year-old backstop is still playing catch-up across this season’s quarter mark.

The right-hander endured a slow start last season, as well, hitting .255/.327/.319 with an 86 wRC+ over his first 31 games before closing out the first half at a .347/.432/.578 clip and a 191 wRC+, earning his first career All-Star nomination. While he struggled post-All-Star break, his encouraging process remained the same during that slide.

This year, however, Kirk’s ground-ball rate (56.6%) is up considerably, whereas his hard-hit rate (32.5%, 18th percentile) has fallen off significantly. Those percentages must start trending in opposite directions if his offensive output is to awaken.

Kirk, of course, is still walking more than he’s striking out, as his walk rate (15.3%) ranks in the 94th percentile. But there’s no question the Blue Jays miss watching him crush opposite-field line drives, and they need that hitter profile to return shortly.

Yimi García

2023 Results: 20 games (19.1 innings), 4.66 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 22 strikeouts, 9 walks

García entered this season among Toronto’s premier high-leverage relievers after being worth a career-high 0.9 fWAR in 2022. But so far, he has struggled to bridge the gap to fellow relief arms Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson.

The 32-year-old righty is still generating swing-and-miss, evidenced by his impressive strikeout (26.2%) and whiff rates (33.3%), which sit in the 68th and 90th percentiles, respectively. He has struggled to limit walks and home runs, though.

In doing so, García’s career-high 10.7% walk rate has placed in the 26th percentile, with his 1.40 HR/9 as the highest of his career since 2019. Quality of contact has also been a concern, as his 41.5% hard-hit rate against ranks in the 35th percentile.

Amidst these woes, the veteran hurler has largely been relegated from high-leverage situations, shifting to more medium-leverage spots for the time being. But his role will likely change again during this 17-game stretch without an off day.

Romano and Swanson can only pitch on consecutive days so often. And when both are unavailable, the Blue Jays will need someone to pitch in late-game settings, giving García another chance to earn back Schneider’s trust.

Santiago Espinal

2023 Results: 23 games (75 plate appearances), .176/.243/.235, 1 home run, 7 RBI, 35 wRC+

For a position player group that includes multiple veterans with lengthy injury histories, the Blue Jays must create designed days off for outfielders Kevin Kiermaier and Springer, who spend enormous amounts of time running on a turf field.

That’ll mean additional outfield reps for Whit Merrifield and, conversely, increased playing time at second base for Espinal. But he will need to take advantage of those opportunities, or else Cavan Biggio could eat into his starts.

Espinal’s most appealing attribute as a hitter is his effectiveness versus left-handed pitchers, as he is slashing .322/.375/.427 with a 125 wRC+ over his first three seasons. In 2023, however, he has faltered to a .120/.185/.120 slash line with a miserable minus-14 wRC+ across 27 plate appearances.

The Blue Jays probably need to create more opportunities for Espinal against lefties moving forward. But at the same time, the right-handed infielder has to find a way to break through when his name is called.