Puck Daddy’s 2016-17 NHL Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

Last Season (29-42-11, 69 nice points; 16th in the Eastern Conference)

The Toronto Maple Leafs overcame seemingly insurmountable odds and won the Stanley Cup.

Wait, no, that should read “had the best odds” and “won the draft lottery.” Apologies.

It was the first year under the brain-trust of coach Mike Babcock and a front office led by Lou Lamoriello, and it was ultimately a successful one in the sense that the Leafs (a) tanked and (b) ended up with Auston Matthews, the most coveted player in the draft and a cornerstone for their franchise rebuild.

There were other bright spots too: Leo Komarov scored 36 points in 67 games in his breakout NHL season. Nazem Kadri had 45 points to lead the team.

Meanwhile, the Leafs followed their Phil Kessel trade of Summer 2015 with a trade of captain Dion Phaneuf to the Ottawa Senators, taking another sledgehammer to the unsuccessful team built by former GM Brian Burke.

2015-16 Season, In One Picture

Did They Get Better, Worse, Or Are They About The Same?

Better, because it was impossible to get worse without the benefit of futuristic deep-drilling technology.

Matthews figures to be a Calder Trophy candidate this season. Defenseman Nikita Zaitsev, 24 and imported from the KHL, looked solid in the World Cup and shows promise.

Matt Martin got a four-year commitment after being a vital depth player for the Islanders, and will attempt to prove he’s more than his inflated hit stats.

The acquisition of goalie Frederik Andersen from the Anaheim Ducks, who was then signed for five years, was a pivotal moment. Whether he’s better than James Reimer or Jonathan Bernier is almost besides the point, since management clearly didn’t have faith in either. Jhonas Enroth is a capable backup.

Finally, Roman Polak was brought back, to do what it is that Roman Polak does in 2016.

Five Most Fascinating Players

1 – Auston Matthews

Obviously. The top pick in the draft doesn’t figure to have the offensive impact that Connor McDavid had in Year 1, but he’s going to haven an impact. We saw his skill on display in the World Cup, and his season overseas last year gives him something to build on. The projection from Stephen Burtch was 0.51 points per game, and that seems like a realistic floor.

2 – William Nylander

Proud member of the Swedish hockey dynasty, Nylander enters his first full rookie season with some explosive offensive potential. The question is whether that potential will be met in the middle or on the wing, as the Leafs currently have three centers ahead of him on the depth chart.

3 – Mitch Marner

Hey look, another rookie! The fourth overall pick in 2015 can be returned to junior, but everyone would rather see him play on a line with Matthews (and Matt Martin, for the obvious 3-M Line shorthand). He’s still figuring out how to play against NHL level defensemen, but better he figures that out in the NHL than with another year of junior seasoning.

4 – Frederik Andersen

Andersen’s five-year contract means he’s something more than a stop-gap here. The 27-year-old Dane had his moments with the Ducks, but was in a perpetual battle with Jonas Hiller and John Gibson for ice time. The decks are cleared for him in Toronto; will we see him top his 53 starts from 2014-15?

5 – James van Riemsdyk

Entering his fifth year with the Leafs, the intrigue is where the 27-year-old winger is going to line up. With Kadri? With Matthews? With Nylander? Wherever he goes, JVR will have a chance to get back to the 60-point mark, if he can stay healthy.

Mascot Hijinks Video Break

Can We Trust Them At Even Strength?

Sorta.

The Leafs had a strong possession year, as Mike Babcock teams typically do, posting a 50.23 Adjusted Corsi. The problem is that just didn’t have the horses to turn that possession advantage into goals, scoring just 120 times at 5-on-5 last season while giving up the third-highest goals (162) at 5-on-5.

One assumes that the influx of young offensive talent will help on the goal-scoring side, but one also wonders what the learning curve looks like as far as playing all three zones on an NHL level for players like Matthews and Marner.

Can We Trust Them On Special Teams?

More than we did last season.

The Leafs were No. 29 in the NHL on the power play last season at 15.4 percent. Matthews figures to play a prominent role in boosting this group’s effectiveness. Can Morgan Rielly do better than 10 power-play points? Will Jake Gardiner show continued improvement at the point? Getting James van Riemsdyk for more than 40 games will help, too.

On the penalty kill, the Leafs were 13th overall at 81.6 percent. Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak saw the majority of time on defense shorthanded. Andersen should help.

Can We Trust Their Goaltending?

Was Andersen a bad gamble or a good investment? We’re thinking good investment, as he’s entering his prime years and should thrive in a Babcock system (even if he doesn’t have the greatest defensive team in front of him). He also has a connection with Toronto goalie coach Steve Briere, a Mitch Korn disciple.

Enroth is a nice option as a backup, and can give you anywhere from 30-40 starts if necessary.

The bottom line: Management trusts its goaltending.

Player Mostly Likely To Be In Vegas Next Season

We’d say with that term and at that cap hit, Matt Martin would be a candidate. But is there anyone in hockey that doesn’t believe that the currently injured Joffrey Lupul won’t end up in Vegas, as either an expansion draft pick, a free agent, a scout, a chef …

Coach Hot Seat Rating (1-10, 10 being scorching hot)

Zero. Babcock has a longer contract than his players.

Prediction

EA Sports sees the Leafs as a wild card team. We … do not. Another year near the conference basement, with the big leap to contention coming in 2017-18. Unless Matthews is exponentially better than expected. Or the division is exponentially worse.

2016-17 Season Preview
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