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Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference Final
The New York Rangers attempt to win their second straight Eastern Conference title against the Tampa Bay Lightning, seeking their first conference crown since winning the Stanley Cup in 2004.
Who takes it? Let’s find out, shall we?
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Saturday, May 16: 1 p.m. Tampa Bay at NY Rangers NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Monday, May 18: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at NY Rangers NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Wednesday, May 20: 8 p.m. NY Rangers at Tampa Bay NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Friday, May 22: 8 p.m. NY Rangers at Tampa Bay NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Sunday, May 24: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at NY Rangers NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Tuesday, May 26: 8 p.m. NY Rangers at Tampa Bay NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Friday, May 29: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at NY Rangers NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Forwards
The Rangers’ top line of Rick Nash, Derick Brassard and Marty St. Louis will be under the microscope again. Brassard leads the team with 8 points, tied with Derek Stepan. But Nash (2 goals in 12 games) and St. Louis (4 assists in 12 games) haven’t produced nearly enough; the latter will be counted on to step it up vs. the team he abandoned.
Chris Kreider has five goals and has been a physical presence. Carl Hagelin’s speed will be needed, along with something more than his 4 points in 12 games. Jesper Fast, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes have offered strong support, and Dominic Moore has won 53 percent of his faceoffs. The team misses Mats Zuccarello, still out with a concussion.
The Lightning saw a Steven Stamkos resurgence in Round 2, as he posted seven points in five games, including three goals. Linemate Alex Killorn has 9 points in 13 games.
But it’s the Triplets that’ll get the most attention: Tyler Johnson (12 points, including 8 goals), Nikita Kucherov (11 points) and Ondrej Palat (8 points).
Valtteri Filppula has six points, but is a minus-6. He’s winning 52 percent of his draws. Ryan Callahan should be past his appendix scare to bring his particular brand of two-way game against the Rangers. J.T. Brown, Jonathan Marchessault, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Pauquette fill out the lineup, along with Brian Boyle, the Rangers’ castaway that could be a force in this series.
ADVANTAGE: Lightning
Defense
Ryan McDonagh (6 points) is having an outstanding playoff, with 24:46 TOI and an overtime game-winner to his credit. Defense partner Dan Girardi compliments him well in their shutdown pairing, even if he can be a drag on possession. Marc Staal and Dan Boyle (4 points), the former Bolt, are the second pairing, giving the Rangers a heck of a top four. Keith Yandle and Kevin Klein are the third pairing; Yandle has four helpers in the postseason.
Victor Hedman (6 points) and former Ranger Anton Stralman (5 points) are a dynamic top paring for the Lightning, playing more than 22 minutes per night. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn, and Andrej Sustr and Matt Carle fill out the group, with Nikita Nesterov in reserve for those nights coach Jon Cooper wants to play seven defensemen.
ADVANTAGE: Rangers
Goalies
What more can be said of Hernik Lundqvist? He has a .944 save percentage, a 1.60 GAA and is pretty well unbeatable in elimination games.
What more can be said of Ben Bishop? Well, plenty: He’s looked shaky at times, brilliant at others (like in Game 6 against the Canadiens). He’ll need more of the latter if the Lightning are to win this series.
ADVANTAGE: Rangers
Coaches
Alain Vigneault is a Jack Adams finalist, and rightfully so: Few coaches can match his ability to adapt his team’s style to match an opponent. The Rangers have been a trappy mood this postseason; one imagines it’ll be the same against the Lightning.
Jon Cooper is a rock star, whose players love to execute his attacking system. It’s his first trip to the conference final, but not to the championship rounds of a tournament after his AHL experience. He deserves credit for keeping the Lightning together through that Canadiens comeback in Round 2.
ADVANTAGE: Rangers
Special Teams
The Rangers are 15.8 percent of the power play, going 6-for-38. They’re at 89.3 percent on the kill, stopping 25 of 28 power plays.
The Lightning are at 18 percent on the power play, going 9-for-50. The Bolts are at 86.7 on the kill, with 39 stops on 45 attempts.
ADVANTAGE: Lightning
Fancy Stats
The Rangers have a 49.7 percent corsi at 5-on-5. It’s at 51.0 when the score is close, as it usually is for the Rangers.
The Lightning have a 47.6 percent corsi at 5-on-5. It’s at 47.4 percent when the score is close.
The Nasty Bits
The Rangers’ Tanner Glass has only a few jobs. This is one of them.
Cedric Pacquette, professional pest.
Best Case Scenarios
For the Lightning, a series in which Ben Bishop looks calm and confident, two scoring lines are surging and the Rangers’ one-goal game luck finally runs out.
For the Rangers, a series in which the Lightning are not ready for prime time, where Lundqvist far outplays Bishop and Stamkos is handcuffed again.
Prediction
Lightning in seven. Yes, seven. Despite all the Game 7 things for the Rangers. The Bolts get a bounce, find a hero and see Bishop play well enough to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
