World junior championship: Scoring chance numbers vs. USA highlight special teams concerns

A 3-2 win is a 3-2 win, but Canada's big problem against the United States during the New Year's Game was a scary powerplay—meaning the Americans seemed to do better on Canadian man advantages than Canada did.

After dominant territorial games over both the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Canada finally faced its first "real" competition for its final round robin game, and they were really given a lesson in the way of territorial play. Canada was out-shot 13-6 in the first period, and it looked like a game that goaltender Zach Fucale would have to steal.

Canada shaped up after the first period though, out-shooting the United States 18-13 after the first period and held on for a 3-2 win. While Curtis Lazar's powerplay goal in the third period held up as the winner, the Canadians did struggle on their own man advantages throughout the contest. Connor Carrick very nearly scored on a breakaway given up with Nic Kerdiles off for a high sticking penalty late in the third period, and Riley Barber opened the scoring for the Americans with a shorthanded goal in the second period. All told, while Canada held a slim scoring chance advantage at even strength, they were crushed on special teams. The Americans had seven special teams scoring chances, including four on Canadian powerplays, to just three by the Canadians.Here is how the scoring chances broke down individually. A player on the ice for a scoring chance for his team is credit with a "chance for" regardless of whether he was involved in the play. Think of this as a more advanced plus/minus table:

And for the Americans:

The first thing that should be noted is that Jonathan Drouin, Anthony Mantha and Charles Hudon, who were huge against the Slovaks, were held in check by the Americans' checking line centred by Andrew Copp with Stefan Matteau and Hudson Fasching. The closest Drouin got was a goal post midway through the second period, but otherwise he was completely shut down.

Luckily for Canada, their second and third lines were on. Bo Horvat brought his two-way game, not allowing a scoring chance against the Americans' top line until the third period. Combined with Connor McDavid's offensive abilities and a defensive pairing with a now-healthy Mat Dumba and not-suspended Griffin Reinhart, the Canadian second line had a dominant game by way of scoring chances. Horvat also hit a post midway through the second.

But Canada's best offensive player may have been Nic Petan. While Canada was stymied offensively in the first, Petan led the way with two good rushes, and scored the 1-1 tying goal after a stretch of play controlled by the United States' top line (against the Drouin line, no less).

The Americans' best player may have been the 2015-eligible Jack Eichel, who didn't score during the game like McDavid, but had just as effective of a game in the offensive zone. The IIHF credited him with five shots, including three in the first period. No other player in the game had more than three.

Not a very good night for the Brady Skjei and Connor Carrick pairing, who seemed to be caught on the ice against McDavid a lot. Ian McCoshen also had a minus-3 scoring chance differential after changing at the complete wrong times, as Canada was rushing, but otherwise had a strong game keeping Canada off the board.

Here's how the scoring chances broke down by period:

The United States had one chance after having pulled Jon Gillies, which counts as an 'even strength' chance in the third period, but doesn't count against Canadian players or for American players in the individual totals. The United States had a 17-13 advantage in the game, helped mostly by their special teams and big first period. The late game push helped as well—the U.S. out-chanced Canada 5-1 after the Lazar go-ahead goal.

Fucale was named the best player for Canada, stopping 24 of 26 American shots. He also turned aside 13 of the 14 American scoring chances placed on net, so it's not like he was only handling outside efforts:

While the original Matteau shot that led to the goal counted as a "save" in my criteria, it doesn't register as a goal against because the puck was knocked in by Adam Pelech before Copp could get to it.

If we want to eliminate the "score effects" and special teams component, Canada held a 10-6 5-on-5 advantage when the score was considered "close", which by definition is when the game is tied in any period, or when one team has just a one-goal advantage in the first or second period. Using "close" indicators eliminate the natural momentum given to teams that are pushing the play when trailing.

So special teams is still the big story. While Canada went 2-for-5 with the powerplay and the US went 0-for-2 on their opportunities, they were still out-played in those situations and got a little lucky. It was a good time to be lucky—with the win, Canada get to avoid Russia in the quarterfinal round and face Switzerland instead.