Matchups between haves and have-nots litter first round: QMJHL first-round preview

The last QMJHL playoff spot came down to the final weekend of the season, but it wasn’t close as to who else made the playoffs.

The difference in points between 12th-place Moncton and 13th-place Chicoutimi is 14 points. The difference between 13th and 8th spot is 31 points. The last four teams in the league weren’t even close to the top 12.

With teams like Baie-Comeau, Halifax, Rimouski, Val-d’Or and Blainville-Boisbriand looking downright dominant at times this season, and the boosts Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec and Drummondville received over the year made for a seemingly wide open league once the second season begins.

That wide open league idea won’t start until the second round, however. For most favourites, this is just a training ground for the real playoff action starting next round. There are the chance for a couple upsets, namely Rouyn-Noranda over Quebec, but most favourites should win and win going away.

(1) Baie-Comeau Drakkar (47-16-2-3, 99 pts.) vs. (16) Shawinigan Cataractes (20-39-4-5, 49 pts.)

Season series: Baie-Comeau (5-1-0-0) Odds favour: Baie-Comeau 95% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Baie-Comeau in 4 Prediction: Baie-Comeau in 4

Why the Drakkar should win: The Drakkar prevent goals very well, with a league-best defence of 2.50 goals-against-a-game. Their goaltending combo of Philippe Cadorette, who led the league with a .916 save percentage and 7 shutouts, and Simon Lemieux is one of the best in the league. Their defensive core – Dominic Poulin, Alexis Vanier, Gabriel Verpaelst, Francis Turbide, Alexandre Chênevert and rookie Nicolas Meloche – are as good as any in the league. The Drakkar can suffocate you defensively very easily. They are well coached by Memorial Cup winner Eric Veilleux, a coach who knows a thing or two about game planning.

Their biggest asset, though, might be their offensive depth. They get scoring from all four lines when healthy. The acquisitions of Charles Hudon and Maxime St-Cyr add another dimension to their offence that also features Jérémy Grégoire, Valentin Zykov, Frédéric Gamelin and Denis Gorbunov, not to mention one of the best two-way forwards in captain Félix Girard. They take the most shots-per-game as a team at nearly 36 shots a contest.

The Drakkar are very strong top-to-bottom and boast excellent team defence, which should easily push them into the second round, let alone to make a big run as the team to beat in the Q.

The Cataractes have taken a step forward this season, making the playoffs after a year absence. They don’t provide much challenge for the Drakkar. They are raw, but boast decent veterans Kris Hodge, Gabriel Slight, Felix-Antoine Bergeron and rookie Ilya Zinoviev. None of those players would feature on a contending team’s top two lines, though.

Fact is, Shawinigan’s leading scorer, newcomer Anthony Beauvillier, had 33 points. That would put him at 12^th in Drakkar scoring this season. Both goaltenders for the Drakkar have better numbers than any Cataracte goalie this year. The Drakkar are simply too deep, too fast, too strong and too good to do anything but destroy the Cataractes.

How the Cataractes could win: Well, they took one game off of the league’s best team this year, a 2-1 home win on Feb. 5 where netminder Marvin Cüpper made 42 saves. It was the only game Shawinigan defeated Baie-Comeau in two years, but it shows that the Drakkar aren’t unstoppable in the right moment.

The Drakkar are a rough team, leading the league while averaging almost 19 PIMs a game, including a big lead in minor penalties. If the Cataractes can intice some calls and get some powerplays, the Drakkar will have a harder task playing shorthanded for a while. The Drakkar penalty kill was middle-of-the-road during the regular season, at a 79.1% clip.

(2) Halifax Mooseheads (47-18-0-3, 97 pts.) vs. (15) Charlottetown Islanders (21-39-3-5, 50 pts.)

Season series: Halifax (8-1-0-0) Odds favour: Halifax 96% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Halifax in 4 Prediction: Halifax in 4

Why the Mooseheads should win: The Mooseheads return a lot of the core from their Memorial Cup winning team of last season, including key cogs Jonathan Drouin, who led the league in points-per-game, and goalkeeper Zach Fucale. Add to that potential first-round pick Nikolaj Ehlers, the clutch shooting of 20-goal man Philippe Gadoury, who has a league-high 32.3% shooting percentage, and the development of Darcy Ashley, who led the league in GWG with 11, and Mac Weegar from the back end, and the Mooseheads have a dynamic offence for a second run.

Halifax comes into the playoffs white-hot, on a 13-game winning streak, and having won 23 of their last 28 games. The Memorial Cup hangover shook itself off well, and the new additions slipped into the roles over the year. The Mooseheads are just as dangerous this season as last, and have owned the Islanders, winning their last eight games against them, and taking 15 of 17 the last two years.

The Mooseheads were the second-highest scoring team in the league and the third-best defensive unit. The coaching staff, led by Dominique Ducharme, will take the experience and use it to their advantage. Their top pairing of Weegar and Matt Murphy were by far the best pairing in plus-minus this season.

Charlottetown doesn’t have any kind of advantage in this series at all. Netminder Eric Brassard had a decent year, not great, and new goalie Mason McDonald is a good prospect. Their leading scorer is 16-year-old Daniel Sprong with a point-a-game, then rookie Alexandre Goulet with 48 points. Their top pairing of Anthony Cortese and Troy Vance is a good veteran duo, but you’d rather have them as a third pair than a first. The Islanders sent a lot of players packing during the trading period.

How the Islanders could win: Charlottetown will need to get to their roots as a grinding team and physically tire the Mooseheads out over a full seven games for the Islanders to have any shot at winning. They need to minimize shots and take advantage of the few opportunities they will get against Fucale, who lost one game last season in the QMJHL playoffs en route to the league title.

They need to slow down the Jonathan Drouin show with a shadow or a suffocating defensive effort, and silence Ehlers and the rest of the offence. Brassard or McDonald will have to play the series of their young careers for Charlottetown to have any shot at all.

Head coach Gordie Dwyer is a good motivator and can get his team to play with a high effort. They need overdrive for the Islanders to have any chance.

(3) Val-d’Or Foreurs (46-20-1-1, 94 pts.) vs. (14) Acadie-Bathurst Titan (22-40-4-2, 50 pts.)

Season series: Val-d’Or (2-0-0-0) Odds favour: Val-d’Or 99% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Val-d’Or in 4 Prediction: Val-d’Or in 4

Why the Foreurs should win: The Foreurs were the league’s most powerful offence this season, scoring nearly four-and-a-half goals a game. They are led by sniper Anthony Mantha, who led the league with 57 goals in as many games, the only player to hit that mark in the league. They also have Louick Marcotte, who earned his first 100-point season. Val-d’Or likes to get the lead early and run away with the win, having only two losses after leading after one period of play.

They have the top two defencemen in league scoring as well, with Guillaume Gélinas and Randy Gazzola, the only two blueliners with over a point-a-game. The Foreurs own the league’s best powerplay, at a 28.6% clip for the year, including 31.3% on the road.

The Foreurs scored 111 goals in the second period of games, by far the highest in the middle frame, while Acadie-Bathurst gave up the second most goals in the second stanza, with 95. They also scored 99 goals in the third period.

Val-d’Or fires 35.48 shots per game at the opposing goaltender while surrendering 28.14. The Titan are just about the reverse of that mark.

Starting to understand why Val-d’Or is a 99% odd to win?

How the Titan could win: These are two teams that don’t know each other well, and the Titan will have to establish some kind of physical and grinding presence early to scare off the offence in the early going. Unfortunately, they don’t have a big team or a particularly tough one, so this will be difficult. They will also need netminder Jacob Brennan to play at his absolute best. He is capable of stealing a game, but he hasn’t played against this offence consistently.

The Titan need to take the effort and game plan from their 3-0 loss in Val-d’Or in February and use it to their advantage. Also, Ron Choules needs to outcoach Mario Durocher for the Titan to have a shot, which is no easy task.

(4) Rimouski Océanic (45-16-3-4, 97 pts.) vs. (13) Chicoutimi Saguenéens (27-40-1-0, 55 pts.)

Season series: Even (3-3-0-0) Odds favour: Rimouski 91% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Rimouski in 5 Prediction: Rimouski in 6

Why the Océanic should win: Before dropping their last game of the season, the Océanic won 16 games in a row. Their starting netminder, Philippe Desrosiers, set a QMJHL record for longest shutout streak earlier in the season, and has an impressive resume so far for an 18-year-old goalie.

Rimouski actually got some help from Chicoutimi during the trading period, picking up key forward Sébastien Sylvestre from the Sags, giving up Dominic Beauchemin. He ended up finishing second in Océanic scoring, two points behind leading scorer Anthony DeLuca.

The Océanic are a three-headed monster on offence, with 30-goal men DeLuca, Sylvestre and Michael Joly, who led the team with 44, while Peter Trainor just missed with 28. They also feature playmaking forwards Alexis L’Oiseau and Frédéric Gauthier. They are strong and fast on the front end, using a nice cycle game to their advantage.

Their D is very solid, with veterans Jimmy Oligny, Samuel Morin, Jan Kostalek and Ryan MacKinnon making a very strong top 4.

Chicoutimi’s offence is muted a bit after shipping out Hudon and Sylvestre during the trading period. Their D is led by a 16 year old in Frédéric Allard and a castoff in Samuel Roussy who has blossomed in his new role in the double blue. Their defensive core isn’t great, giving up 3.71 goals-a-game, and their netminding is nothing to write home about, either. The Sags boast the second-worst PK in the league, at 73.9%.

How the Saguenéens could win: While their offence is muted with the two big holes left by Hudon and Sylvestre, it’s not like the Saguenéens are left with nothing. Beauchemin, Laurent Dauphin, Janne Puhakka and hyped rookie Nicolas Roy give the team some life. Rimouski’s powerplay isn’t as deadly as their offence would make it seem, at just 19.7%, so if you can get the stops, you could take advantage of the momentum.

Chicoutimi has a better PP, at 20.4%, but they are up against the third best PK in the league for the Océanic. Either way, if they can establish a presence in the offensive zone, Morin, Oligny and Loïc Leduc are 1st, 3rd and 4th in the league in minor penalties from defencemen, and those players do feature on the PK for Rimouski. The Sags could exploit that for some easy trips to the man advantage.

If it helps, Chicoutimi has the most overtime wins in the league, with a 6-1 record in the extra time.

(5) Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (41-17-5-5, 92 pts.) vs. (12) Moncton Wildcats (33-32-0-3, 69 pts.)

Season series: Blainville-Boisbriand (2-0-0-0) Odds favour: Blainville-Boisbriand 86% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Blainville-Boisbriand in 5 Prediction: Blainville-Boisbriand in 5

Why the Armada should win: Blainville-Boisbriand was listed amongst the contenders before the season started and they didn’t disappoint, though this season wasn’t as impressive as the one before it.

One thing the Armada do extremely well is clog the neutral zone and turn the ice into a parking lot. It may be boring, but it wins and it’s been extremely successful for J-F Houle and his crew. Pair that with one of the league’s best goalies, Etiennne Marcoux, and the Armada defence is very strong.

The Armada are deep in foot-soldiers who can chip in on offence as well, including Christopher Clapperton, Danick Martel, Ryan Tesink and Marc-Olivier Roy, the latter two spending time out of the lineup due to injury. They also boast a two-headed monster on offensive from the back end, with Dominic Talbot-Tassi and Daniel Walcott.

The Wildcats have been dealing with the injury bug all season, with forwards Ivan Barbashev and Conor Garland returning to the lineup without a tune-up game beforehand. Moncton also cut loose overager JC Campagna with six games left in the season, leaving a hole that isn’t filled on offence. Moncton stumples into the playoffs, winning only three of their last ten.

How the Wildcats could win: Everything will come down to the goaltending matchup, as Alex Dubeau is two years removed from his Memorial Cup experience with the Cataractes, and a disappointing playoff year last year. Dubeau has showed some consistency this year, while also stealing games for the Wildcats.

The Armada started off really hot, winning their first nine games in a row, and then cooled down, finishing with an unimpressive 14-9-2-4 record in 2014. The Wildcats also boast the league’s best PK, operating at an 83.3% clip while down a man, including an 88.4% mark on the road.

Getting both Barbashev and Garland back will allow the offense to spread, taking advantage of Chris Lalonde and fellow Russian Vladimir Tkachev and their respective skillsets. The defence needs to play at their absolute best for the Wildcats to be able to make their move.

(6) Drummondville Voltigeurs (43-21-1-3, 90 pts.) vs. (11) Victoriaville Tigres (33-27-5-3, 74 pts.)

Season series: Drummondville (4-0-0-0) Odds favour: Drummondville 71% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Drummondville in 5 Prediction: Drummondville in 6

Why the Voltigeurs should win: The Volts beefed up during the league’s trading period, acquiring Frédérick Gaudreau, William Carrier, Ryan Culkin, Alexandre Grand-Maison and Matthew Donnelly in deals to improve. The Volts had trouble scoring earlier this season, but improved in that area in the new year, thanks in part to their new players. They score first a lot, and go 33-8-1-1 when they do.

They are making a run for it this season, and come into the post-season having won nine of their last 11 games. Two of those wins came against the Tigres, including a convincing 7-2 win in Victoriaville to end the season.

The Volts have five forwards with 59 points or more, so their offence is well balanced. They also have Culkin and Nikolas Brouillard on the back end with 50 points or more. Brouillard finished third among defencemen in scoring with 61 points. Drummondville boasts the second-best defensive unit in the league.

Louis-Philip Guindon had a great year as the Voltigeur starter, seeing the second most minutes in the league and earned the second-most wins. Their backup, Joe Fleschler, was even better record-wise, with an 11-1-0-1 mark.

The Tigres fell into the playoffs, having lost seven of their last ten games on the way in. They have two main threats on offence, Angelo Miceli and Jean-François Plante. Shut them down, and you force the Tigres to get creative to score.

How the Tigres could win: Tigres netminder Brandon Whitney missed a good chunk of the season after taking a puck to the neck in practice in January. He’s back, and could be an impact player.

Victoriaville’s offence is actually pretty good, scoring at a similar clip to Drummondville over the regular season. They acquired talented Plante and Yan Pavel Laplante up front, and Cameron Yarwood on the back end to help out in the offensive zone, and Plante and Yarwood scored at a better mark after landing with the Tigres.

Their D is still mobile and smart in their own zone, and they are well coached by Yanick Jean. They upset the Moncton Wildcats in a very similar spot last season by enforcing a specific game plan and playing it to a T.

(7) Quebec Remparts (39-17-5-7, 90 pts.) vs. (10) Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (35-28-3-2, 75 pts.)

Season series: Quebec (3-1-0-0) Odds favour: Quebec 64% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Quebec in 6 Prediction: Quebec in 7

Why the Remparts should win: The Remparts got the best gift of the season of any team, receiving struggling Russian forward Mikhail Grigorenko from the Buffalo Sabres in January. While he wasn’t originally receptive to the idea, he scored at a crazy pace to end the season, with 39 points in 23 games. He’s also looking to avenge a playoff where he was criticized by his coach for indifferent play after 14 points in 11 games.

While Grigo runs the show for the Remps, they have plenty of weapons. Anthony Duclair hit 50 goals on the year, while Adam Erne, Nick Sorensen and Fabrice Herzog all hit 58 points or higher. Don’t count out overager Olivier Archambault, playing for a free agent deal, or Kurt Etchegary, who’s saw time as the number one center at times this season. The Remparts have a ton of talent up front that can rival any in the league, and devastate a team over a longer series.

Quebec holds the edge in goal as well, as François Brassard had another great season, supported by Callum Booth, who played excellently as a rookie. Brassard briefly held the record for longest shutout streak in the history of the QMJHL until it was broken by Desrosiers later on in the season.

How the Huskies could win: The Huskies need to attack the depleted Remparts defence with well-timed attacks. Quebec traded veterans Culkin and Dillon Donnelly during the trading period, losing two of their top defensive players.

Marcus Power, who hit the century mark, and Jean-Sébastien Dea, who lost out on his 50th goal of the season in the last game, are both players who can exploit inexperienced blueliners, and will have to be on their game. They are bolstered by veterans Francis Beauvillier, Jack Nevins and Ryan Penny, all mid-season pickups.

Netminder Alexandre Bélanger needs to outplay Brassard for the Huskies to take the series. He is capable to do it over a short stretch.

Two rookie head coaches makes for interesting playoff matchups, especially when you consider that this is Philippe Boucher’s first foray behind the bench. Huskies bench boss Gilles Bouchard can use that to his advantage.

(8) Gatineau Olympiques (41-23-1-3, 86 pts.) vs. (9) Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (37-27-1-3, 78 pts.)

Season series: Even (1-1-0-0) Odds favour: Gatineau 80% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Gatineau in 6 Prediction: Gatineau in 7

Why the Olympiques should win: The players on the Olympiques all work hard and play tough, but their biggest asset may be behind the bench. Benoît Groulx has eaten all kinds of coaches alive in the playoffs by forcing them to play to his game, and his teams have taken advantage year after year. Gatineau rested six regulars in their last game so they could ensure they would play Cape Breton in the first round.

Their offence is led by the dynamic forwards Emile Poirier and Martin Reway, and the punishing forward Vincent Dunn, who could be the impact player of the series both physically and on the scoresheet. Gatineau is a big team with Dunn, Taylor Burke and Alexis Pépin patrolling the corners.

Justin Haché has extensive experience in playoff games for the Screaming Eagles, spending time on the 2012 Memorial Cup Cataractes. Jérémy Beaudry spent 11 games with the Remparts last season in the post-season. That’s it for meaningful time in the post-season for Cape Breton, giving Gatineau the edge with their players who went on the President’s Cup final run two years ago.

Cape Breton hasn’t won in Gatineau in at least five years. The Screaming Eagles are further than even they thought they would be, and anything past this point is a bonus. The Olympiques are built for the post-season, and hold a huge home-ice advantage.

How the Screaming Eagles could win: Both teams have identical home records, but the Screaming Eagles need to stifle the Olympiques in Sydney, where they have the last change and hold a big edge in special teams. The Screaming Eagles have a 83.2% PK at home, and score at a 27.8% clip on the man advantage on home ice. They have to find a way to steal at least one on the road as well, in a tough building.

The loss of Carrier hurts, but they still have Cameron Darcy, Charles-Eric Légaré and Kyle Farrell up front, and Haché and Beaudry on the back end.

They need Dumont not to fall for any kind of mind games that Groulx can come up with, and he will throw the kitchen sink at him if it will help. If Dumont can keep his focus on his own room, he will give Gatineau a run.