Maple Leafs opt not to release Morgan Rielly for the World Juniors

The Toronto Maple Leafs have made their decision on junior-eligible defenceman Morgan Rielly, and have decided that he will not be loaned to the Canadian national junior team at the upcoming IIHF U-20 World Championship in Mälmo, Sweden.

Rielly was the fifth overall pick from the 2012 NHL Draft and his status for the tournament was unclear. Earlier in the month, the Minnesota Wild announced that they would loan the sixth overall pick from the same draft, Mathew Dumba, to Team Canada. Like Rielly, Dumba had been a healthy scratch multiple times, and like the Leafs, the Wild have been struggling to find wins recently. However, TSN reporter Bob McKenzie relayed news of the major league team's decision Wednesday morning, and the team followed it up with an official press release:

The Leafs have played 36 games, and Rielly has been a healthy scratch for nine of them, so you can't blame Hockey Canada for thinking that there was a chance the Leafs might have released their youngest defenceman for the tournament. The Leafs are, unfortunately for the Hockey Canada brass, in struggle mode right now, winning just twice in regulation in their last 18 games. Until a game against Los Angeles last week, Rielly had been out of the lineup, but the team's management reportedly forced the hand of coach Randy Carlyle, and Rielly began not only playing, but seeing his role increase. Over the last five games, Rielly has averaged 18:55 of ice-time (he'd played an average of 17:45 in his first 22 games) and he has probably been the team's best defencemen at both ends of the ice excluding Jake Gardiner.

For Team Canada, this is a blow. Rielly was, in my view, the strongest Canadian defenceman a year ago and a difference of a year means a lot to players so young. Still, Canada's junior team, much like the senior team, is stacked on defence. The team has eight players at camp, and given their respective abilities, it's difficult to envision any one of them being cut. Canada has had 12 defencemen selected in the first round of the 2012 and 2013 drafts, and have had to include late bloomers Adam Pelech (3rd round 2012, NYI), Damon Severson (2nd round 2012, NJD) as well as Barrie's gigantic Aaron Ekblad, who is expected to be one of the top players selected in the 2014 draft. He's already a three-year OHL veteran.

Canada loaded up on offensive defencemen a year ago in Ufa with players like Ryan Murphy, Xavier Ouellet and Dougie Hamilton, but while the forwards seem to be more geared towards skill and offence this season, Brent Sutter has opted for minimal risk on the blueline. Players like Shea Theodore and Darnell Nurse, top-scoring defencemen in their respective leagues, have been left behind for stalwarts Pelech and Severson from top teams Erie and Kelowna, respectively. That leaves Portland's Derrick Pouliot and Prince Albert's Josh Morrissey—both are over point-a-game in the WHL—to be the primary powerplay targets along with Dumba. Dumba has spent most of his year in the press box, registering just a goal and an assist in 13 NHL games. At the WHL level, he'd probably be a dominant player, which is why the Winterhawks traded for his rights a week ago.

It stings, but they'll likely make do. Given the respective talent pools on defence for both the Leafs and the Canadian World Junior squad, the former team needs him a little bit more through the winter break. He has impressed lately too. The Leafs have been out-shot decisively in most of their games this season, but with Rielly on the ice the team keeps the shot counts relatively even. His puck-moving ability, both by skating and passing, means the Leafs are the team with the puck when he's on the ice which means the opposition doesn't have it. Over the last five games, the Leafs have attempted 76 shots with Rielly on the ice and the opposition has attempted 78 against. When he's off the ice, it's 142 for the Leafs and 155 for the opposition (per the excellent ExtraSkater.com) so you can start to see the gap and the importance of a puck-mover like Rielly on a team like Toronto that doesn't often get to move the puck. Toronto have picked up on the importance as well, and I expect his role to be increased with the Leafs over the next few weeks as he develops into a legitimate top four NHL defenceman.