CHL playoff underdogs facing some overwhelming odds

The playoffs are a clean slate. Yeah, and so was the first day of school, the first day at college and the first day at a new job.

It is hardly unheard of in the NHL for a top seed to topple early and a team which barely squeaked into the playoffs to go to the Stanley Cup final, like the Philadelphia Flyers did in 2010. Like the big league, major junior hockey also has 16-team, four rounds of best-of-7 tournaments to determine the league champions. They just don't have 30 teams in each league to create competition for those last few spots. Some of the also-rans are also teams which traded away their graduating players at midseason to rebuild for the next season.

So each spring, the playoff field includes a few teams whose chances rank slightly better than Lloyd Christmas had of getting together with Mary Swanson in Dumb and Dumber: "So you're tellin' me there's a chance."

All of the competitors are going to give it their 100 per cent, but it's not rude to point out a long shot when you see one. And there are a few: BTN resident statistician Rob Pettapiece crunched the numbers as part of this site's playoff previews. From coast-to-coast, five teams are deemed to have a 10 per cent chance or less of reaching Round 2. It is what it is.

Victoria Royals vs. Kamloops Blazers, WHL. Chance of upset: 10%

As Royals coach-GM Marc Habscheid said of the Blazers, "Some people are picking them in three games, not just four ... All I know is, we'll show up Friday when the puck is dropped."

Did that "we'll show up" quote remind anyone of this 1990 John Elway Sports Illustrated cover, published right before one of the Denver Broncos' Super Bowl blowouts? Victoria is a young team with some good NHL draft prospects such as Steven Hodges and Logan Nelson. As Cam Charron pointed out, though, there's no getting past the fact their second-leading scorer has been playing two time zones away since January.

The Royals' season arc kind of evoked another (soon to be former) Denver Broncos quarterback. Like Tim Tebow, the Royals were mediocre for about three quarters — of the season — and inexplicably pulled it out at the end. The Royals entered the final week needing to beat the Portland Winterhawks twice in their sole remaining games.They were in a tight spot. However, the Calgary Flames borrowed star scorer Sven Bärtschi from the 'Hawks for a week and Victoria goalie Keith Hamilton stoned his old team and the Royals got into the dance. It was quite the feat, really.

Oshawa Generals vs. Niagara IceDogs, OHL. Chance of upset: 8%

There was a prevailing sentiment following Niagara's second-round win over Oshawa last spring that the two would meet again next spring. Only it was expected to be one round later in the conference final rather than one round earlier. The IceDogs, with five members of Canada's national junior team and 12 NHL draft picks, are a complete overdog in the Ontario league.

The Generals are not lacking for experienced talent. Five of their players have been picked in the third round of the NHL draft or earlier, while captain Boone Jenner was also on Team Canada. Yet they have been consistently inconsistent all season. For instance, they lost their final three games of the season to sink to eighth after going on a four-game run that included taking down the regular-season champion London Knights. How that translates into taking down a top team four times in seven games or fewer is a mystery.

Everett Silvertips vs. Tri-City Americans, WHL. Chance of upset: 8%

Like Victoria, Everett is not necessarily happy to be here, but it was quite the accomplishment just to be here. When they awoke on New Year's Day, the exact halfway point of the season, they had a league-low six wins in 36 games. Once captain Ryan Murray returned from the world junior championship and goalie Kent Simpson got better support, they started playing decent enough hockey.

Their reward? They draw a regional rival who seems to be showing you can have your cake and keep the other guys from having their slice. The Tri-City Americans produced both Brendan Shinnimin, whose 134 points are the most by any Western leaguer in more than a decade, and their goalie, Ty Rimmer, produced the lowest average in the league (2.43). Good luck, Everett.

Rouyn-Noranda Huskies vs. Shawinigan Cataractes, QMJHL. Chance of upset: 6%

The Cataractes are gearing up for their turn as host of the MasterCard Memorial Cup in two months. The Huskies had to pull up their socks just to squeeze out the penultimate playoff berth in the Quebec league, which played a six-month season to eliminate one team from President's Cup competition. (On the efficiency scale, this is equivalent to using a bazooka to get that spider crawling up your wall.)

The series is a homecoming of sorts for Huskies coach André Tourigny, who has been a fixture with Hockey Canada's junior program for the past few years. There's not much more to advertise it, though.

Cape Breton Screaming Eagles vs. Saint John Screaming Eagles, QMJHL. Chance of upset: 2%

True story. When Pettapiece ran the numbers to generate the most likely outcomes for all 24 first-round series, the most likely outcome was Saint John sweeping Cape Breton in four games. There's a 44 per cent chance of that.

The runner-up? Saint John beating Cape Breton in five games , at 36%.

The Sea Dogs are a juggernaut with five players who were picked 35th or higher in the NHl draft, including Florida Panthers No. 3 overall pick Jonathan Huberdeau. They just became the Quebec league's first team to win the regular-season pennant in three consecutive seasons.

Someone had to play them, though, since teams despite having a bye and sitting around. Plus there's a couple nights' worth of gate receipts to be collected.

So it might as well be the Screaming Eagles and players such as graduating forward Jonathan Brunelle. As much as it's easy to be snarky about why the mismatches are played, for the long shots it beats the alternative of having a season-long ride end early. There's still a chance to do something, even if it's not much of one.

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Contact him at neatesager@yahoo.ca and follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet.