Bob McKenzie sheds light on how NHL lockout will affect CHL

No one knows what day to pick in their 'when will the NHL lockout end?' pool, but the invaluable Bob McKenzie had provided a bit of clarity about the impact the all-but-certain labour stoppage will have on major junior players and Canadian Hockey League teams.

The long and short of it? Expect the makeup of CHL rosters to be a moving target until the NHL has a CBA. The TSN analyst sent out a series of tweets (and there's also this article) on Thursday that indicate that the big league will be able to summon 18- or 19-year-old draft picks if it reaches an agreement and opens training camps after the junior season has begun. There was no specific mention of whether there will be any alteration to the NHL-CHL agreement that would allow a 19-year-old draft pick from the CHL to play in the American Hockey League. The high number of signings of draft picks from last June (18 of 30 by Adam Kimelman's calculation now that the Boston Bruins have signed Team Canada candidate Malcolm Subban from the Belleville Bulls) also suggests a pattern.

From TSN:

That squares with earlier reports that the Edmonton Oilers' 19-year-old Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be posted to his club's Oklahoma City AHL affiliate rather than going all the way back to the Red Deer Rebels. (Two other 2011 first-rounders from the CHL who went directly to the show, Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog and Philadelphia Flyers centre' Sean Couturier, are entering their age-20 seasons so they are in fact eligible for the AHL regardless.) There is also nothing to stop a junior from following the lead of Vancouver Canucks first-rounder Nicklas Jensen or Boston Bruins choice Alex Khokhlachev by decamping for a pro league overseas, provided they last in a league that might have import restrictions.

It sounds like the CHL could benefit in the short run. An absence of NHL hockey would mean more media and fan attention. There is the obvious prospect of Canada having a stacked world junior team if the lockout drags on until the holiday season; the country's entries at the WJHC during the 1994-95 and 2004-05 lockout campaigns ran the table. (That's not to say they would now since the tournament is much deeper, plus it is in Russia.)

However, how does a junior GM plan for the season? For instance, the Niagara IceDogs' rebuilding looks much different if Hamilton and Strome come home, so to speak. How can a team move a graduating player for younger players and draft choices without knowing if he'll actually finish the season in junior?

In 1994-95, several CHL teams did lose star players after the lockout ended in mid-January. The Portland Winterhawks lost Jason Wiemer to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Regina Pats saw Jeff Friesen off to the San Jose Sharks. The Kingston Frontenacs saw Brett Lindros summoned by the New York Islanders. Other teams merely lost them temporarily, which surely affected the final standings and playoff matchups. That scenario should be on the table.

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Contact him at neatesager@yahoo.ca and follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet.