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Closing Time: Enrique Burgos, Arizona firecracker
has been the best reliever in the Arizona bullpen this year, and it’s not particularly close. The submariner has a 1.04 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a tiny .169 batting-average against. If you need a ground-ball, Ziggy plays guitar.
Does that make him a saves candidate? Not necessarily.
Ziegler pitched two scoreless innings, the 10th and 11th, in Monday’s extra-inning victory at Miami, which earned him the night off Tuesday. And with that, we have a new entry into the Arizona save chase. Enrique Burgos grabbed a Monday save in the 13th inning, then came back with a more conventional ninth-inning save Tuesday.
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Neither Burgos conversion was easy on the ticker. He’s allowed three baserunners over the last two nights, and for the year he’s given up eight hits and eight walks over 11.2 innings. Like so many late-inning relievers, he’s not approved for all viewing audiences.
Ah, but the 24-year-old righty has one dynamic skill - a fastball in the 96 mph range. He’s piled up 20 strikeouts in his 10 games this year, including four the last two games. He’s getting a swing and a miss 13.4 percent of the time.
Lovely. Now manager Chip Hale has more options to make our lives difficult. He can go to Ziegler if a ground ball is needed, or Burgos if a strikeout is needed. And who knows, maybe Addison Reed’s temple of doom will come back to the ninth inning at some point. Reed earned his demotion from the closer role, throwing 13 high-stress innings (16 H, 8 R, 7 BB, 11 K). He did get the extra-inning victory Monday, for what it’s worth.
I’ve decided to go Reed free in my leagues, wherever that takes me. I do have a few Ziegler and Burgos shares. It’s no fun speculating in a quicksand bullpen, but sometimes there’s no getting around it. I’d suggest you look to Ziggy if it’s more of a quality-innings chase, and save Burgos for those teams that are simply handshake-desperate or chasing an elite K/IP.
Ziegler is owned in 19 percent of Yahoo leagues, while Burgos has chased up to seven percent. And 51 percent of the Yahooligans are still holding out hope with Reed.
• Velocity hasn’t been the problem with Craig Kimbrel this year. He’s actually throwing harder than he did last year (just a spec, anyway), and the strikeout rate is fine. But there’s been some problem keeping the ball in the park.
Tuesday’s save was more of the same: two strikeouts, one homer allowed, happy ending. The Padres will take it, and there’s no talk of moving Kimbrel out of the ninth. But it sure is funny to see a guy with a 13.2 K/9, a skimpy walk rate, and a 5.74 ERA. Given that the velocity hasn’t dropped off, I don’t see any verdict other than “hold Kimbrel.”
Petco Park could be part of the issue. The ball has been flying into the San Diego bleachers all season, for any number of reasons. Is it the weather? The surrounding structures? The new hitters? Struggling pitchers? Start with Dennis T. Lin’s article here, and share your best detective work in the comments.
• If you wanted a moment where you could sell Yordano Ventura, the window appeared Tuesday night. But if you want to hold and dream of a better day, that’s your prerogative.
Make no mistake, Ace Ventura was back on the hill against Cincinnati (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K). That’s about as clean as it gets for seven innings. Ventura outdueled one of the Top 10 pitchers in baseball (be good, Johnny Cueto), and collected 17 points if you dared to dial him up in DFS.
But where is the story headed? Ventura still has ugly ratios for the season (4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). His ground-ball rate has spiked nicely, into the mid 50s, but that’s about the only fun thing under the hood. His strikeout rate has tumbled under 7/9, his velocity is down 1.2 mph, and he’s giving up home runs on 17.6 percent of his fly balls.
Ventura’s generally a fun watch, a powder keg who lets it all out on every pitch. It’s a blast to see the radar gun pop. But I get nervous when I see an undersized pitcher (6-foot-0, 180 pounds) who’s maxing out on every delivery. Sure, pitching in the majors brings on assumed risk for anyone, but I think there’s even more that applies to Ventura.
What’s your play here, rotoheads? Are you buying, selling, or holding with Ventura? State your case in the comments.
• The Jon Niese Regression Tour, coming soon to a town near you.
The Mets needed some length from their starter Tuesday, which led to Niese going five messy innings against the Cardinals (11 H, 8 R, 1 BB, 1 K). It turned into Niese’s fourth loss in five starts, though his ERA is still reasonable at 3.72.
He’ll be lucky to keep that number much longer. Niece has just 27 strikeouts for his 48.1 innings, and he’s allowed four homers. The ERA estimators don’t really believe in him: SiERA spits out a 4.26, while xFIP suggests a 4.16. If you streamed Cardinals hitters for Tuesday, you laughed all the way to the bank. Maybe the slumping Pirates will get off the skids against Niese this weekend.
