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Sochi Olympics men’s curling: Contenders, challengers and long shots
Olympic curling gets underway at what's being affectionately called "The Ice Cube," in Adler, Russia, on Monday, when the first draw sees the men hit the ice at 9am (that's midnight, Eastern time). Among the first four games to be played will be one between Canada and Germany.
Ahead of the week and a half long charge towards a gold medal, here's a look at how the ten team men's field shapes up, split into three groups:
'Contenders' are those with the best shot at being in the gold medal game, on February 21st. 'Challengers' are those with a good chance at slipping into the playoffs should one or more of the favourites struggle. 'Long shots' are teams that don't have much of a chance at getting to the medal round, much less a gold medal.
(To see the women's edition of "Contenders, challengers and long shots," click here)
CONTENDERS
Canada, represented by 2013 Brier champion skip Brad Jacobs and his teammates Ryan Fry, E.J. Harnden and Ryan Harnden, were as hot as hot can be at December's Olympic Trials. With an 8 and oh record they won what some see as an even tougher tournament than the one they'll play in at Sochi. Dedicated to the gym, the front end of the Harnden brothers is as good as any in the business when it comes to dragging rocks on the draw and keeping them straight on the hit. When Jacobs and Fry are both hot - as they were at The Trials - it's tough for anyone on the planet to match up with them. They'd love a little redemption after losing the World Championship to Sweden last spring.
Norway, with Tomas Ulsrud again at the helm, attempts to go one better than the silver medal they scored at Vancouver in 2010. To some, they're merely known for those crazy pants they wear. No mistake, though, this team is lock-step with the best on the planet and Ulsrud calls a superb game. He can also match Jacobs' ability to make the big ones at crucial times. The Norwegians have finished in the top three at five of the six major events they've played in this season, winning The Swiss Cup, in Basel, last October. It's the same line up that lost to Kevin Martin in the gold medal game at the 2010 Olympics.
Great Britain, represented by Scotland, is a five-man outfit with two top-notch skips in their rotation. David Murdoch has helmed two world championship teams and Tom Brewster has skipped two silver winners at Worlds. Either of those could have been gold as Brewster lost tight ones to Canada in both 2011 and 2012. Some question the way this team is run, with a rotation of players and two strong-willed skips trying to coexist. This season, they've hit the podium only once in six big events. However, every curling expert I spoke to ahead of writing this preview steadfastly planted them in the "contenders" category.
The defending world champions come from Sweden, skipped by Niklas Edin. After bouncing back from back surgery at the end of the 2011-12 season, Edin carried through a strong follow-up campaign, culminating in an 8-6 win over Jacobs at the 2013 World Championship, in Victoria, B.C. The 2013-14 season has been fairly dismal for Edin's crew, as they've finished in the top three just once in four World Curling Tour events and have won just barely more games than they have lost in that stretch. If those struggles continue at Sochi, one of the teams in the next category will likely take their spot in the medal round.
CHALLENGERS
Switzerland, skipped by 25 year old Sven Michel, might be the kind of team that is peaking at just the right time. They finished seventh at the World Championship last year and sixth at the European Championship in each of 2011 and 2012. However, Michel led his team to the 2013 Euro Championship just last November in a field that included Edin, Ulsrud and Brewster/Murdoch. There is buzz building around this team, whose members all list different Canadian curlers as heroes.
Team Denmark, with young Rasmus Stjerne (25) at skip, was also in the field at the European Championship, finishing fourth. Stjerne really turned some heads at last year's World Championship, in Victoria, where he very nearly led his team to a bronze medal, losing a tight one to Scotland, 7-6. He's a rising star.
China, skipped by Rui Liu, has been building for a podium finish at the upcoming Worlds, to be held in Beijing this March and April. "They’re good, but they’re not elite yet," curling commentator Russ Howard told me, last winter. "They’re improving every time you play them." Perhaps they're closer to that level as Rui Liu led his team to a semi-final finish in a star-studded field at The Masters, in Abbotsford, B.C., last November.
LONG SHOTS
In this group there are three nations that are least likely to see any medal round action when the round-robin has been completed. The United States, Germany and Russia are most likely to be at the bottom of the table when the week is done.
OVERVIEW
Will the big stage of the Olympics return Niklas Edin's Team Sweden to form? If so, they'll be in the big four and keep upstart Switzerland from claiming a playoff berth.
Great Britain's five-man team philosophy flies in the face of the traditional curling set up. If there were any real problems with it, you'd have to assume team officials would not have sent all five to Sochi.
You'll know early if Brad Jacobs is on. If he's calling difficult shots with little hesitation, then he's feeling good. He and his mates are at their best when they play with swagger.
Don't be fooled by the pants. Ulsrud's a killer and can run back stones with the best of them.
Canada, Great Britain, Norway and Sweden are all capable of topping the podium.
PREDICTION
Canada versus Norway in the gold medal game.
