Losing Lopes-Schliep and Felicien at track trials a blow to Canada’s medal hopes at London Olympics

CALGARY— The unscripted and totally unexpected finish to the women's 100-metre hurdles at this weekend's Canadian Track and Field Trials shows how unpredictable the sport can be.

It also demonstrates how difficult it is to predict how many medals the Canadian track team will win at this summer's Olympics in London.

Alex Gardiner, head coach of Canada's track team, is sticking with the goal of three medals. A more realistic estimate is two. There's also a chance Canada could home empty handed.

Athletics Canada on Sunday announced a 40-member team for the London Games. It's a young squad with only seven athletes having competed at a previous Olympics. No one has won an Olympic medal.

[Related: Vote for Canada's most memorable Summer Olympics moment.]

"We are targeted at three medals, we still think we can get three medals,'' said Gardiner. "There may be some other surprises in there that get close to the podium.

"We also hope to get six to eight top-eight finishes.''

Everyone likes a surprise. If the track team reaches Gardiner's expectations it will indeed be a welcome surprise.

Canada's medal chances took a hit when Priscilla Lopes-Schliep and Perdita Felicien were casualties in the wreckage of the hurdles final.

With them gone Dylan Armstrong remains the best hope for a podium finish in shot put. Jessica Zelinka will contend in the hepthalon.

[Related: Jessica Zelinka wins 100-metre hurdles.]

Zelinka convincingly won the hurdles in a personal best time of 12.68 seconds. Felicien, the 2003 world champion who wanted one more chance at Olympic glory, was disqualified for a false start. Lopes-Schliep, a bronze medallist at the 2008 Olympics, hit a hurdle and finished fifth. She needed to be in the top three.

There's no arguing Zelinka's victory. She performed on the day, something Felicien and Lopes-Schliep couldn't muster.

"I know Canada wants to send its best and I've proven my fitness in hurdles,'' said the 30-year-old London, Ont., native. "To be able to perform on demand like that, it's an amazing feeling. It would be ridiculous not to want to replicate that in London.''

Lopes-Schliep had a better chance of returning to the Games' podium. Her top time this year of 12.64 seconds is among the 10 best run this season. She also has the experience to deal with the pressures of the Olympic qualifying rounds. Felicien has shown a warrior's heart in the past. She is a Game's veteran with something to prove at what would have probably been her last Olympics.

Zelinka has skill but remains a dark horse. The hurdles in London begins just two days after she has completed the gruelling, seven-event, two-day heptathlon. She will be tired and sore.

Even Zelinka's coach questions her chances of a medal.

''She doesn't have a chance to win a medal in the hurdles," said Les Gramantik, but quickly added, "but then I've been wrong before."

Zelinka will be part of the mix in the heptathlon. She won the Canadian trials with a score of 6599 points, which broke her own Canadian record and is the fourth best in the world this year.

[Related: Dylan Armstrong books ticket to London.]

Armstrong missed the podium at the 2008 Beijing Games by about the distance of a finger nail.

The 31-year-old from Kamloops, B.C., won a silver medal at last year's world championships and has been a consistent top-three finisher in Diamond League meets this year. At last year's nationals he set a Canadian record with a throw of 22.21 metres.

Armstrong believes he will need to throw at least 22 metres to reach the podium in London. He's best throw so far this year is 21.50 metres. That's about half a metre behind American Reese Hoffa, who has a toss of 22 metres.

"I can definitely do that,'' said Armstrong. "I have over three weeks to go after it and get some good training.

"I am hoping for big things.''

Many of the other track athletes going to the Games are young and show potential for future Olympics.

Do the math and you see Armstrong as a legitimate threat in shot put and Zelinka with a chance in heptathlon.

Two medals. Maybe.

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