Blue Jays by the numbers: Home run outage to blame for August woes

As the power gets closer to going out on the Toronto Blue Jays' flickering playoff hopes, the Blue Jays' lineup could use a power surge.

By every relevant metric, Toronto has had a top-5 offence this season. They're fifth in runs scored (574), fourth in batting average (.260), fifth in on-base percentage (.325), and third in wOBA (.327). They're also third in home runs (144) but that production has been nowhere to be seen this month.

The Blue Jays have hit 10 home runs in August and it's no coincidence that it's been by far their worst offensive month of 2014.

The boom-or-bust nature of Toronto's offence has been evident. They're 53-33 averaging 5.3 runs per game when they knock a ball out of the park. They're 14-31 averaging 2.7 runs per game when they don't.

Through nearly five months, 40.4% of Toronto's runs have come via home runs. Only the Orioles (47.4%) and Astros (43.4%) have relied more on home runs to score. The league average this season is 33.6%.

Leaning so heavily on the long ball can be a dicey proposition.

Jose Reyes (.349/.367/.430, 0 HR) and Melky Cabrera (.300/.371/.413, 1 HR) are having excellent months at getting on-base but are not providing any power. Even with premium production from the top of their order, the Jays aren't able to put runs on the board.

Jose Bautista hasn't been at his best. Edwin Encarnacion has only been back a week after over a month out injured and looks a little rusty. Juan Francisco hit 12 home runs in his first 59 games with the Blue Jays. He's hit 4 in his last 36.

Losing Brett Lawrie hurt. He had 12 homers in 70 games but of course, hasn't completed a game since mid-June. His absence has given more at-bats to Steve Tolleson and Munenori Kawasaki. Tolleson has 3 home runs in 83 games while Kawasaki has played 56 games and doesn't have one.

When the Blue Jays are clobbering the ball all over the park, they look like they did in May. When they're not, it looks like this. There's not much middle ground.

It doesn't help that August has also been the worst month for Toronto's starting rotation. The staff has a combined 5.50 ERA in 20 starts after turning in steady performances in May, June, and July. Bumps like this should have been expected though. There's a reason there was rampant speculation that Alex Anthopoulos and the front office were interested in acquiring more starting pitching before the trade deadline.

The gap between Toronto and first-place Baltimore in the AL East is eight games and they're 5.5 back of the second wild-card spot with three other teams also in the chase.

Unless the Blue Jays can turn the power back on, the bright lights of the postseason will remain a glow in the distance.

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