2014 Scotties Tournament Of Hearts: Contenders, challengers and long shots

The Canadian Women's Curling Championship returns to Montreal, for the first time in 35 years, when teams take the ice this weekend at the Maurice Richard Arena. To give you some perspective on just how long ago that was, consider that the championship was then known as The Macdonald Lassie Championship. As well, a rookie playing in the tournament at the time set a record for youngest competitor to ever play at the women's nationals. Her name? Colleen Jones, the six-time Scotties champion, who played front end for the Penny Larocque team, at the age of just past nineteen.

There's plenty of new blood in this year's championship, too, with veteran contenders in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and The Territories all falling by the wayside on the road to Montreal.

Here, now, a breakdown of the Scotties field, divided into three groups: Contenders, challengers and long shots.

CONTENDERS

In this group, you will find four teams. They are the most likely to be in playoff positions when the round-robin portion of the schedule ends next week. Team Canada, led by Rachel Homan, Manitoba, with Chelsea Carey at skip, Team Saskatchewan, led by Stefanie Lawton, and Alberta, skipped by Val Sweeting.

Team Homan, the defending champions, didn't perform exceptionally well at the Olympic Trials, with the skip struggling with draw weight. Ultimately, they were blasted in the semi-finals by Sherry Middaugh. That, however, just might make them a wee bit snarly at this event, and they play very well when they've got chips on their shoulders. At last year's Scotties, they emerged as a national scene force, dismantling all in their way, including Jennifer Jones, in the final. Balanced and talented, they have all the shots in their bag and can play any style you like. When they get a lead, forget it as they defend as well as any team out there, often employing lead Lisa Weagle as a neutralizer with her peerless abilities to tick opponent's guards out of the way.

Chelsea Carey has arrived at her first Scotties, doing it without one very major obstacle in her way. Her team's victory in Manitoba was accomplished without Team Jennifer Jones in the field, as they prepare to represent Canada at the Olympics. Nevertheless, Carey's team has been a strong player on the circuit for a few years now, with curling fans waiting for them to break through to the national level. It's possible, just possible, that they could have earned their berth to the Scotties even if Team Jones was in the field at provincials. This team stands 8th in the World Curling Tour's (WCT) Order of Merit standings. Although this is their first appearance at The Scotties, it is by no means their first appearance at a major event (they finished with a 4-3 record and lost a tie-breaker at the Roar of the Rings) and they should be taken very seriously.

Stefanie Lawton - standing fourth in the WCT Order of Merit - returns for her third Scotties as a skip after going a perfect 7 and 0h at the Saskatchewan championship. After a disappointing Olympic Trials performance (they finished with a record of 2 and 5), Lawton feels her veteran team has bounced back nicely. "We got our old game back and played with a lot of spunk," she told Canadian Curling Association writer Graham Lloyd. If so, look out. This is a team that can easily emerge as champions, as they did at the 2012 Players' Championship. It's never easy getting out of Saskatchewan. To do it in perfect fashion says something.

Same thing for Alberta. Team Sweeting ran the table against a deep field, going 5 and oh to take the crown. Those wins included a methodical and textbook perfect victory over Heather Nedohin in a page playoff game and an 8-4 win over Cheryl Bernard in the final, with the four-time Alberta champion conceding after nine ends. Sweeting's team got a lot of attention after they began the Olympic Trials with a 3 and oh run, before losing four straight to miss the playoffs. They have big event experience and a sweeping duo (Rachelle Pidherny and Joanne Courtney) that is the best in women's curling. Courtney, who shoots third stones (although Dana Ferguson is the team's vice), has emerged as one of the game's best clean-up artists. Her take out abilities are a killer weapon, on display often in the win over Bernard. Val Sweeting has been here before, appearing at the 2010 Scotties, although with a completely different line-up.

CHALLENGERS

Should one of the big four falter, one of these two teams might be able to sneak in. Heather Smith's team from Nova Scotia consists of three members who won bronze at the 2011 Scotties and they went undefeated to win their province this year. New Brunswick's Andrea Crawford makes her 6th straight Scotties appearance and she usually finishes right in the middle of the pack. Last year, she ended up a single win out of the playoffs and returns with her team intact. These two skips will call good games and if they get a hot week of execution from themselves and their teammates, they could force the issue.

LONG SHOTS

These six teams would have to be considered long shots to claim a playoff spot at the end of the week. Quebec's Allison Ross returns for a second straight year, although with an altered line-up. B.C. will be represented by a very young team, skipped by Kesa Van Osch. They upset Kelly Scott (whose team has since disbanded) in the provincial final, but will likely be overwhelmed here due to inexperience. Ontario's Allison Flaxey, and the Territories' Sarah Koltun are in the same boat, while veteran skips from Newfoundland and Labrador (Heather Strong) and Prince Edward Island (Kim Dolan) are capable of giving a hard time to anyone who takes them too lightly. If there is a crew in this group that has a chance to jump up into the "challengers" category, it would be Flaxey's team from Listowel, Ontario, or Strong's rink from St. John's.

THE OVERVIEW

Homan's Team Canada and Sweeting's Alberta team are probably the best two rinks, on paper, at this event. The similarities between them are many. Young teams, with great shot-by-shot rock management, powered by skips who know how to get the best from their crew. Each of them can smother an opponent with great skill and execution, once they get a lead. Each is blessed with very good sweeping and up-weight abilities. They should collide in the final but it would be only a mild surprise if they didn't. Saskatchewan's Lawton and Manitoba's Carey are right there with them.

The big questions are: Can Homan's team get their killer instinct back? Can Carey and Lawton harness consistency? Can Sweeting's young team learn from their rapid rise and fall at the Olympic Trials?

THE WINNER:

Val Sweeting. Could be - in the grand scheme of things - I'm a tad early with this prediction. Sweeting emerges with a tough win over Homan. A decade and a half of grudge matches to follow as a great rivalry is born.