Winnipeg’s offence against Hamilton’s defence: resistible force meets movable object?

Saturday's clash between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6:30 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN3) features one notable strength-on-strength matchup, with the high-octane Hamilton aerial offence (the Tiger-Cats had a league-high 595 passing yards heading into Week Three) taking on Winnipeg's fearsome pass rush (the Bombers led the CFL with 11 sacks through two games). However, it's the weakness-against-weakness matchup that may prove even more decisive. Through two weeks of play, Winnipeg's offence has been ineffective at best and turnover-prone and unable to move the ball at worst, while Hamilton's defence hasn't been able to stop a stiff breeze yet. Which of those struggling units proves less terrible Saturday may be the key to the outcome of this game.

The Tiger-Cats' defence being terrible isn't exactly anything new, as defensive struggles were the chief reason why they finished 6-12 last year despite an incredible offence that led the league in several categories. This was supposed to be a new-look Hamilton team, though, with the messianic return of general manager/head coach Kent Austin from the NCAA and the installation of Orlondo Steinauer as defensive coordinator. So far, the results have been very much the same. It still seems likely that there are scheme issues here as well as personnel ones, as the Tiger-Cats have some terrific defensive players (particularly linebackers Markeith Knowlton and Jamall Johnson), but things can't be blamed on former defensive coordinator Casey Creehan any longer. (Oddly enough, Creehan wound up as Winnipeg's DC this offseason, and his approach seems to be working pretty well there, so maybe it's just that he wasn't the right fit for Hamilton. The new-look Ticats' defence doesn't seem any better than the old one, though.

Through two weeks, Hamilton has conceded 393.0 yards of offence per game, second-worst in the league. That's even more concerning when you consider that one of their two games was played in a monsoon last weekend, which is usually an offence-killing environment. The Tiger-Cats got run over by Hugh Charles and the Edmonton Eskimos, though, and that speaks to their primary defensive issue: they can't stop the ground game. Given the weather conditions during that game and Edmonton's overall tendencies, everyone in Guelph knew the Eskimos were going to run, but Charles still demolished the Ticats for 119 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries, while Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly added another 54 yards and a touchdown on six rushing attempts of his own. Stopping the run was an issue in Hamilton's season-opener against Toronto, too, where Argos' RB Chad Kackert collected 112 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. That's right: in two games, the Ticats' opponents' key running backs have averaged over 10 yards a carry. Hamilton's last in the league in yards allowed per rush (9.0) and rushing yards allowed per game (147.0), and both of those numbers are appalling enough that they should terrify fans of the black and gold.

Fortunately for the Tiger-Cats, though, their opponents Saturday aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. Through two weeks, the Blue Bombers (led by second-year offensive coordinator Gary Crowton) have scored just 26.0 points per game, third-worst in the league. The Bombers are second-worst in total offence per game (306.0 yards), first downs (31) and touchdowns (four), and they turned the ball over five times while scoring just 19 points (yet still won anyway thanks to their defence) in last week's game against Montreal. On the year, they have the CFL's worst turnover differential (-6). Perhaps even more fortunately for Hamilton, the worst part of the Winnipeg offence is the ground game: they're averaging a league-low 3.4 yards per rush and picking up just 65.5 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the CFL. Rushing back Chad Simpson has talent, but he's only collected 90 yards on 23 carries so far this season, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry. Hamilton's defence has struggled to stop anything this year and has been particularly weak against the run, but Winnipeg's offence hasn't consistently moved the chains yet and hasn't been able to get anything going on the ground. We'll see if either of those trends breaks Saturday.