Playoff Primer: The picture has cleared in the West, but the East remains a mess

After 17 weeks of CFL action, we're coming right down to the wire, but what that means for the playoff picture differs greatly by geography. In the West Division, it's very easy to tell where the teams stand, as the first and second slots are locked up. In the East, though, the picture is much more muddled. Montreal's clinched the top spot, but things are very much still in flux for every other team. Perhaps most oddly, the 5-11 Hamilton Tiger-Cats could finish second and host a playoff game, third and make the playoffs, third and miss the playoffs or fourth and miss the playoffs. Given that they play Winnipeg and Toronto in the season's final two weeks, how the Tiger-Cats perform down the stretch is going to play a huge role in determining how the playoff seedings look.

It's remarkable that hosting a playoff game is still in play for a 5-11 team. However, it's not out of the question whatsoever. With two games left to play, the Tiger-Cats are tied with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 5-11, and they're two games back of the 7-9 Toronto Argonauts. This coming week, Hamilton hosts Winnipeg (in the final game at the current Ivor Wynne Stadium before it's torn down to make way for the new one); after that, the Tiger-Cats travel to Toronto for their regular-season finale. Wins in both those games would get Hamilton to 7-11. If the Argonauts lose at Saskatchewan this week and then fall to the Tiger-Cats, they stay at seven wins.

The first tie-breaker (see p. 13 of this CFL rulebook PDF) between tied teams is the number of wins (identical here), but then it goes to the season series, and Toronto's won two of the three games between the clubs already. However, the CFL schedule is currently set up so that while you always play two games against each team in the other division, you play three games against two of the clubs in your division and four against the remaining team. The Argos and Ticats play four times this year, and the next tiebreaker is points scored in games between the clubs. Toronto currently has an eight-point edge in the season series, so if the Tiger-Cats beat the Argonauts by nine points or more, they win that tiebreaker and claim second in the East.

What happens if everything goes as previously stated, except that the Tiger-Cats win by eight points in the season finale? Well, then the next step of the tie-breaking procedure is invoked, picking the team that has scored "the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s)". In this case, that doesn't come into play, as those can only be different when three or more teams are involved. Beyond that, it goes to winning percentage against the division, but both teams would finish 5-5 there under this scenario. Then we get to higher net points scored against the division, so the Hamilton-Winnipeg score comes into play as well, and it gets particularly convoluted.

Other Eastern scenarios are possible as well, of course. The Argonauts would seal second place and a home playoff game with a single win or tie against Saskatchewan or Hamilton. The Blue Bombers can't get second place, as they lost the season series with the Argonauts (and their hopes of doing so depended on a three-way tie there, no longer possible thanks to Hamilton's loss), but they could clinch third with a win over Hamilton this week. That would put them to 6-11, and they would win the tiebreaker with the Tiger-Cats. However, if both finish 6-12, Winnipeg's third but out of the playoffs; the Edmonton Eskimos would cross over from the West, as they already have seven wins. For the Bombers to make the playoffs, they have to win both games and get to 7-11, and Edmonton has to lose both of their remaining contests to also finish 7-11. If it's a tie, there's no crossover.

Similar logic applies for Hamilton if they finish 7-11, but don't put up enough points on Toronto to win the season series. In those circumstances, two Edmonton losses are required for the Tiger-Cats to make the playoffs. The weirdest scenario might be if the Tiger-Cats claim second place and the Eskimos also record a one or two wins (or a tie, even). That would leave 7-11 Hamilton hosting an Edmonton club that's 7-10-1, 8-10, 8-9-1 or 9-9 in the East semi-final.

Meanwhile, the West is downright simple by comparison. The 12-4 B.C. Lions' win Friday locked up first place and a first-round bye for them, while the 10-6 Calgary Stampeders clinched second and a home playoff game Saturday with a narrow victory over Hamilton in the snow. Furthermore, despite losses this weekend, the 8-8 Saskatchewan Roughriders have clinched a playoff berth and the 7-9 Eskimos look likely to make the postseason as well. The only real question is if there's going to be a crossover (a single Edmonton win or tie would lock that up) and if so, who's going to cross over; Edmonton won the season series between the teams, so a tie with Saskatchewan in the final standings would give them the third spot in the West.

However, that spot may not be advantageous. Given the East's struggles at the moment (even division-leading Montreal has been outscored by five points on the season, while Hamilton, Toronto and Winnipeg are at -35, -54 and -153 respectively), crossing over there may look more favourable than playing in a West Division that features B.C. (+134) and Calgary (+82). That's going to make for some interesting decisions for both Edmonton and Saskatchewan down the stretch.

[Correction: some teams' records were wrong in the first version of this post. They've been fixed. Thanks, Wayne!]