Playoff Primer: Eastern promises, Western wars

Following Week 15's CFL action, it's still the third playoff spot in the East Division that's most likely to determine who's in the playoffs and who's out. However, there are intriguing battles for positioning everywhere else thanks to this weekend's results. Montreal's loss to Winnipeg Monday kept the Bombers alive in the playoff race and hurt the Alouettes' chances of finishing first, but Saskatchewan's win over Toronto left Montreal at the top of the East for now and also moved the Riders neck-and-neck with Calgary for second place in the West. At the moment, the East Division is all about potential and promise: the narrowly-bunched Alouettes, Argonauts and Tiger-Cats all could finish first (but also all could finish out of the playoffs), while the last-place Bombers could get as high as second. Meanwhile, yes, any of the four Western teams could technically finish first, but the B.C. Lions' two-game lead over Calgary and Saskatchewan and four-game lead over Edmonton looks rather imposing. What seems more likely to happen out West is a war over second and third place.

"Promise" is an appropriate way to discuss the East, as each of its teams have looked like world-beaters at times and like those beaten down by the world on other days. There are high ceilings for each of these squads, but they haven't been hitting those consistently. What are their chances of doing so down the stretch? Well, the Eastern team that's been the best over the course of the year is still 8-6 Montreal, and the Alouettes are still likely the favourite to claim the division. However, recent stumbles against Winnipeg and Hamilton don't bode all that well for them, and they're just 2-4 on the road, where three of their remaining four contests lie.

What might favour the Als the most is the paucity of other options. Behind them are only 7-7 Toronto, which looked terrible this week against Saskatchewan and hasn't been consistently effective even with Ricky Ray under centre, and 5-9 Hamilton, which came up empty in a big game at Edmonton this week and would have to make up three games on Montreal (although they win that tiebreaker) in the span of just four remaining contests if they want first place. Despite their struggles, the Alouettes still look like the odds-on bet to finish first. If either Toronto or Hamilton consistently hit their ceiling while Montreal falls off a cliff, that could change, though.

Out West, yes, the Lions haven't quite sewn up first just yet, but their 10-4 record and two-game cushion is imposing. Meanwhile, the 6-10 Eskimos aren't quite doomed to last, but both the Riders and Stampeders have two-game leads on them. There are plenty of divisional games left, with the Lions and Eskimos facing each other team in the division, while the Riders and Stampeders each have two divisional games left. Thus, things could change quickly. It looks like the most likely outcome is B.C. staying on top and Edmonton staying on the bottom, though, so what could get really interesting is Saskatchewan and Calgary battling for second place and the right to host the other in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams are 5-2 at home on the year and 3-4 on the road, so home-field advantage looks like a substantial bonus. The Stampeders look to have a slightly easier schedule (at Winnipeg, hosting Hamilton, hosting B.C., at Edmonton), but the Riders' path isn't bad either (at Edmonton, hosting Montreal, hosting Toronto, at B.C.). This one could go down to the wire, and it's going to be well worth watching.