A playoff berth is on the line for the Ticats Thursday, but even a win won’t get them in

For the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, Thursday's season finale against the hated Toronto Argonauts (7:30 p.m. Eastern, TSN/NBC Sports Network) presents one final chance to at least partially redeem a season that started with Grey Cup hopes, but has produced just a 6-11 record to date. With a win, the Tiger-Cats will keep their playoff hopes alive for at least one more day. However, a victory alone won't get them in; they'll also need the Edmonton Eskimos to lose at home against Calgary Friday. It's a desperate situation for Hamilton, but for the Tiger-Cats have any chance at all, they'll have to take care of their own business Thursday night in Toronto.

Will the Tiger-Cats be able to do that? Well, there are several factors in their favour. For one, the Argonauts have nothing to play for, thanks to already clinching second place with a victory last week. Thus, they'll be resting quarterback Ricky Ray. Backup Jarious Jackson has played well at times, but the Argonauts are a far better team with Ray than without him. Without their top quarterback, and without anything in particular to play for, they look like a less-formidable opponent.

Moreover, there's a lot that's impressive about this Hamilton team despite their dismal record to date. That's particularly true on offence. Heading into this week's games, they were second in the league in points per game (29.3), first in passing touchdowns (39) and fourth in yards per game (371.5). That offence hasn't always clicked consistently, and quarterback Henry Burris has vacillated between outstanding (as reflected by his 4,870 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and 64.5 per cent completion rate) and awful (as reflected by his 16 interceptions, many of which have come in the same games), but when Burris and the rest of the members of Hamilton's high-powered offence are on their game, they're very tough to stop.

However, the Tiger-Cats have plenty of flaws, chiefly on defence. Heading into this week, their defence was last in 11 of the 25 statistical categories tracked by the league, including such crucial ones as points allowed per game (31.4), touchdowns allowed (54) and first downs allowed (409), and they were second in offensive yards allowed per game (407.1). That defence is so bad that even an Argos team without Ray may be able to take advantage of it; the Tiger-Cats give up 5.8 yards per rush (second-worst in the league) and 8.4 per pass (third-worst), so you can beat them in a multitude of ways. There's a good reason this team's 6-11 and is in dire straits when it comes to making the playoffs; their defence couldn't stop a slowly-rolling Hot Wheels car at this point.

Moreover, just because this game doesn't mean anything in the standings doesn't suggest the Argonauts will roll over completely. For one thing, this is a chance for them to tune up heading into the playoffs, and many of their players on the margins will be looking to turn in strong performances to either earn or solidify starting jobs. For another, this is their last home game of the season, against a hated rival, and you can bet the Argonauts might wish to end the Tiger-Cats' season. Of course, there's a game theory aspect that runs counter to this: an Argonauts' win would ensure they play either Edmonton or Saskatchewan, who have been better on the year, so there might be a case for them to tank similar to the case for the Riders to do so. Still, most teams and most players in particular don't tend to behave like that, especially in games against rivals. The Argos' decision to rest Ray will an make this easier match for Hamilton, but don't expect Toronto to roll over. If the Tiger-Cats want to maintain their slim chance of making the playoffs, they'll have to earn a win here.