Can Kevin Glenn and the Stampeders bring down Anthony Calvillo and the Alouettes?

Just two weeks after thumping the Montreal Alouettes 38-10, the Calgary Stampeders are heading into Thursday night's rematch (7:30 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN3) as substantial underdogs. The Stampeders may have won the first match by 28 points, but the Alouettes are favoured by 6.5 points heading into this one, and that 34.5 point swing isn't just about this game being in Montreal instead of Calgary. There have been some changes on both sides since Week One, but one stands out; the Stampeders will be without quarterback Drew Tate, who shone in the first matchup between the teams but dislocated his shoulder last week in their 39-36 loss in Toronto, meaning Kevin Glenn will be under centre for Calgary Thursday (and likely for the next five or six weeks). Meanwhile, despite an injury scare earlier in the week, Anthony Calvillo will indeed be starting for Montreal. Is that change so significant that it makes all the difference in the matchup, and does Calgary have a chance without Tate?

Well, for starters, the change from Tate to Glenn isn't as big as changing quarterbacks might be in another city. Trading Henry Burris for Glenn this offseason actually looks much better now, as it cleared the way for Tate to start and removed a potential locker-room distraction, but left the Stampeders with an experienced backup and one who was a CFL starter as recently as last year. Of the CFL backups at the moment, Glenn is probably the one most ready to come in and start in a pinch; there are other talented guys, including Alex Brink in Winnipeg, Quinton Porter in Hamilton, Adrian McPherson in Montreal and Mike Reilly in B.C., but none of them have a huge amount of starting experience, and one backup who does have a massive amount of experience (Edmonton's Kerry Joseph) looked well past his prime last week. Thus, the Stampeders aren't likely to be as devastated by losing their starting quarterback as most CFL teams would be.

However, switching from Tate to Glenn is still likely going to take the Stampeders' offence down a peg or two. For one thing, Tate had seen the majority of reps in practice through the first two weeks, and Glenn's still adjusting to a new offensive system. For another, Tate looks like the better of the two quarterbacks at the moment; despite only taking over as Calgary's starter towards the end of last season, he edged Glenn in completion percentage (63.9 per cent to 62.9 per cent) and touchdown/interception ratio (8/5, or 1.6 touchdowns for every interception, versus Glenn's 19/17, or 1.1 touchdowns per interception), and Glenn was clearly brought in to be Tate's backup, not to challenge him for the starting job.

Tate looked terrific in Calgary's first game this year, too, throwing for 299 yards and a touchdown against Montreal with a 71.4 per cent completion mark (although he did have two interceptions), and he was very impressive before getting hurt against Toronto (five for six for 64 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions). Glenn was solid in relief against the Argos, completing 15 of 19 passes (78.9 per cent) for 174 yards and two touchdowns, but he threw two interceptions that were far more questionable than Tate's Week One stumbles, and one of Glenn's picks in particular came from a horrible read. Glenn's certainly still a capable quarterback, but he doesn't seem to be at Tate's level right now and he's in a reasonably new system. The Stamps do have a solid ground game with Jon Cornish, but don't expect to see the same sort of aerial fireworks with Glenn under centre.

However, the change in the odds for this one isn't all about the switch from Tate to Glenn. A lot of it has to do with the weaknesses exposed in Calgary's defence last week, where Ricky Ray threw for over 400 yards with a 75 per cent completion rate and Cory Boyd ran for another 101 with an average of over five yards per carry. Moreover, Montreal's offence recovered from their Week One debacle with a great outing against Winnipeg, led by Calvillo and running back Brandon Whitaker. If the Stampeders' defence looks as bad as it did against the Argonauts, you know Calvillo and Whitaker will take full advantage. Thus, although the change to Glenn on offence is going to be a large storyline Thursday night, what happens on the other side of the ball may be just as crucial to determining the outcome. The Stampeders certainly have a chance to pull this off, but without Tate and with a defence that looked like Swiss cheese in its most recent outcome, they're deserving underdogs.