Conservative approach of avoiding free agents may not benefit Ottawa at quarterback

A key subplot with Monday's Ottawa expansion draft is the idea of pending free agents; there are many more than usual across the CFL this year, and that's reportedly thanks to teams electing to delay new contracts for their players (or at least the official announcement of those contracts) until after the expansion draft. That forces the new Ottawa franchise into a game of chicken, where they can either ignore pending free agents entirely or draft them and risk getting nothing for the selection. If we're to believe Redblacks' general manager Marcel Desjardins' comments to Tim Baines of The Ottawa Sun earlier this week, he'll be taking the former tactic, at least with regards to quarterbacks. However, that may be ill-advised, especially at that position. First, here's what Desjardins told Baines:

There may be some value to the conservative approach of not taking pending free agents, as that does enable Ottawa to ensure they'll land players they draft. However, Desjardins and his staff will have to weigh the benefits of that against the perils of missing out on top players, and at quarterback in particular, that could be problematic. Keep in mind that there will be only nine starting quarterback jobs in the CFL next year, and most of them are already set: as discussed back in October, there are essentially two and only two landing spots for starting quarterbacks this offseason, in Winnipeg and Ottawa. The Blue Bombers didn't make a move for a quarterback before the Dec. 8 roster freeze (which prevented teams from trading with anyone other than Ottawa this week), so that lets the Redblacks essentially take their pick of unprotected quarterbacks (and each team can only protect one). If, say, Toronto's Zach Collaros is the top guy on their board, passing him over merely because he's a pending free agent seems like a poor idea. Yes, Collaros could theoretically refuse to sign with Ottawa and hit free agency in February, but where's he going to land? Winnipeg is the only real alternative destination where he could get an opportunity to start (and the salary boost that comes with that), and if the Redblacks take Collaros, they'd have exclusive negotiating rights to him for the next few months. The Bombers might not want to wait that long to solve their quarterback situation.

It's not like Winnipeg could drastically outbid Ottawa, either. In fact, the Redblacks are coming into this with the fewest cap demands of anyone (thanks to starting a roster from scratch), so it should be quite easy for them to find the money to pay their projected starter well. If you're Collaros and Ottawa takes you, aren't you more likely to sign with them for solid money and the chance to become the face of the franchise than hold out for months on the off-chance Winnipeg will be waiting? Given that the Bombers went a CFL-worst 3-15 this year, too, it's also not like the on-field talent around Collaros is guaranteed to be substantially better in Manitoba. If the Redblacks chose to take him, they could make him a very compelling offer, and one that might be better than anything else he gets in free agency. There are some reasons they might look elsewhere (perhaps they prefer Drew Tate, or Drew Willy, or Thomas DeMarco, or Kevin Glenn, although I'm not sure I'd want to start an expansion franchise with a quarterback who will be 35 by the time next season starts), but there's a solid argument that Collaros might be the best available quarterback when both immediate ability and long-term potential are factored in. If the Redblacks agree with that logic and have Collaros as the top quarterback available here, they should grab him regardless of his pending free agent status.

This logic doesn't apply universally, of course. Players at every other position have more options, as teams can always use multiple receivers, linemen, linebackers and so forth. Thus, a strategy of focusing on pending free agents across the board could hurt Ottawa; yes, they surely can recruit some of those players with impressive contract offers, but players at other positions have far more leverage than quarterbacks, and some of them would elect to hit the open market and play teams against each other. Moreover, going to an expansion team that's likely to not be great in its first few seasons isn't all that appealing for many. It's the openness of that market that allows that to work, though; multiple teams tend to be in on most good free agents, which gives them more choice in their destination. For starting quarterbacks, it looks the market's limited to two teams, neither of which is a highly-appealing destination right now, and Ottawa gets the advantage of extra months to negotiate with whoever they take before free agency starts. It would likely be worthwhile for the Redblacks to go after at least a few pending free agents across positions, targeting top talent they think they can entice to come to town with major contracts, but it would be particularly worthwhile for them to do so at quarterback. When it comes to CFL pivots, even free agency doesn't really make you free...