Betting on a turnaround pays off for Bombers and Eskimos; could it work for Argos and Riders?

This year's CFL draft is fast approaching on May 3, but two teams have essentially already spent one of their picks. That would be the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Edmonton Eskimos, who gave up 2012 first-round and second-round picks respectively to acquire receiver Kito Poblah and defensive tackle Ted Laurent in last year's supplemental draft. Thanks to a quirk of the drafting process, though, by doing so, those teams were able to obtain the equivalent of higher picks than they would have in the conventional draft this year. That quirk? Betting on their own turnaround.

In 2010, Winnipeg and Edmonton had the worst and second-worst records in the league respectively. That gave those franchises the first and second picks in each round of the regular 2011 draft, and it also gave them top priorities in the 2011 supplemental draft. The supplemental draft's auction-style mechanic means teams have to silently bid picks for the next year's draft against each other by round, escalating until no team's willing to go higher. When that happens, if two or more teams are tied at a certain round, it goes in priority by inverse record. Thus, Winnipeg was able to beat all other teams and Edmonton could beat everyone but Winnipeg, giving the equivalent of first- and second-overall picks at each level of the supplemental draft, and they each came away with an important player by doing so.

What's particularly interesting is that those supplemental draft picks wound up being substantially better than the picks Winnipeg and Edmonton would have received in the traditional draft this year if they hadn't sacrificed them. Winnipeg's top supplemental draft priority was essentially a first-overall pick, which they used to grab Poblah, but their impressive record in 2011 means that they would have been drafting seventh overall this year if they still had a first-round pick. Similarly, Edmonton used what was effectively a 10th-overall pick to grab Laurent, but if they'd elected not to concede their 2012 second-rounder, they'd be drafting 14th overall. As TSN's Duane Forde points out, Poblah and Laurent would probably go ahead of those slots if they were in the conventional 2012 draft, so the Bombers and Eskimos came out ahead on the deal:

Is that a problem? Well, not necessarily. The way the supplemental draft is conducted is reasonably fair overall, and only a few players are eligible for it each year. It's restricted to players whose determination of non-import status comes in too late for the regular draft, and we don't even know yet how many players will be eligible for it this year, as the draft eligibility list is finalized Thursday. Thus, we're not talking about a wide-ranging loophole here. Furthermore, a dramatic year-to-year change like this isn't possible every year for every bad team, and the Blue Bombers and Eskimos acted completely within the rules with their supplemental draft moves.

If anything, this is an indication that using the supplemental draft can be well worth it for teams, especially those who finish in the league basement. This year, that might be worth considering for the last-place Toronto Argonauts and the second-last Saskatchewan Roughriders; we don't yet know who will be available in the supplemental draft, but given that both teams seem to be banking on substantial turnarounds in 2012, they could potentially receive a better slot in this supplemental draft than their corresponding pick in 2013. There's still a chance of them overpaying by going to a round no one else is willing to match, but if they think they're going to be better this coming season, this process allows them to draft higher than they would normally.

Essentially, a current supplemental draft pick can sometimes be more valuable than a future traditional draft one, and the Bombers and Eskimos did well to realize that. They gave up high-round picks for Poblah and Laurent, but those picks carried more value at the time than they would now (and both Poblah and Laurent have looked like very effective players thus far). Teams need to be careful using this strategy, as if they wind up in the basement again, they're conceding a very good pick, but in certain circumstances, having enough faith in your squad to go high in the supplemental round can be quite an efficient way to snag good players. It's certainly worked for Winnipeg and Edmonton, and it might be worth considering for Saskatchewan and Toronto.