How to use Win/Loss totals to predict breakout offenses | Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast

Yahoo Sports fantasy expert Liz Loza I joined by MintyBets to talk about how betting lines and win/loss totals can be used to predict breakout players and offenses.

Video Transcript

LIZ LOZA: All right. So talk to me about how win and loss totals might point us toward breakout offenses.

MINTY BETS: Yeah, absolutely. So one of the win totals-- the season win totals that I'm kind of looking at, is going to be for the Broncos. Their total is set at 7 and 1/2. I think the Broncos' offense could have their breakout season. I mean, we saw Drew Lock. He didn't do that bad last--

LIZ LOZA: Girl, you don't have to make excuses for Drew Lock here. I know we're new to one another, but I will stan for him. It's OK.

MINTY BETS: OK. He went 4-1 last season as a starter, seven touchdowns with three interceptions. This is his second year, so he's got his first year out of the way. And the Broncos just drafted Jerry Jeudy. So him alongside with Courtland Sutton-- I think we can see the Broncos look like this Denver team that maybe we saw in 2016. Who knows? So I like that over. They've definitely improved from last season and then the season before that. So I definitely like the Broncos here.

LIZ LOZA: So how would you isolate or identify them? How does that pop to you when you're looking at the win-loss totals and thinking, OK. What about that, or how can someone identify-- is there a jump from the year before, or a metric that you use to help hone in on that?

MINTY BETS: Yeah, absolutely. So first of all, we look at the number first. I saw 7 and 1/2, and I was like, OK, that's not an outrageous number. It's not 11 and 1/2 like the Ravens, although I don't doubt the Ravens have 12 wins. 7 and 1/2 looked like a great number, so I honed in on that.

And the Broncos-- I knew that they improved. I knew they got Jerry Jeudy. And I knew that Drew Lock was not bad last season, like I said. And they've got such a great defense, and they continue to have a great defense. So I know they can hold off their opponents from scoring points, especially there in the Mile High Stadium. I don't know how it's going to be without fans, though, but that's kind of how I start.

And then I look at seasons past, like, did they have eight wins last season, the season before, and how history has looked, how coaching has looked. So that's kind of where I start out with, looking at win-loss totals and projecting that.

And then, of course, we look at all the players. Is this player healthy? This player that just got drafted-- is he doing well? I read a lot of articles by beat writers as well to see how players are doing individually. Although betting is more about the numbers and not so much the players, it's important to know that stuff when betting on futures like this.

LIZ LOZA: Yeah, I can imagine. This is a separate competition. I'd love to sit down with you and figure out baseball, because whew, there's a lot of math in baseball. So much math.

MINTY BETS: Very specific math, yes.

LIZ LOZA: So I imagine that in some ways, it's a sports better's stream, because you don't really need to know all of the players, because the season is so long, and things can average out.

MINTY BETS: Absolutely. And a lot of the professional sports handicappers that I work with who make a living off of betting football and baseball-- they don't even watch these games. And they can't name you a single player on a team, because they bet solely based on the numbers, the total over-under, the lines, the line movements, how it's moving, if the odds have shifted up or down. And it's crazy. I'm like, OK, no. I need to know every player, and I need to watch every game if I'm going to bet on this.

LIZ LOZA: And it's fun.

MINTY BETS: And it's fun, yeah. So I do stress a little bit, yeah.

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