Patriots at Bills betting preview

Frank Schwab has you covered ahead of the huge AFC showdown between the Pats and Bills. Frank has player props, the game total, and a pick against the spread for you to consider.

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Video Transcript

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FRANK SCHWAB: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It is Monday, November 6, 2021. I am your Monday Night Football betting guide, Frank Schwab. First, let's go through the weekend bad beats. Not too many. Really, it was probably a pretty good weekend for you bad beat-wise. I feel like one you might complain about, if you had the Falcons +10.5, you felt pretty good. They're down 10 to the Buccaneers late, and the Buccaneers could have run out the clock by getting a couple of first downs, but they get stopped, have to kick the field goal, so now they're up 13. You're hoping for the backdoor cover, and it almost happens. The Falcons get inside the 10-yard line, have a couple of shots at the end zone. Matt Ryan's last pass to the end zone falls incomplete, you don't cover. Not the worse beat in the world, if you're complaining about that bad beat. You probably feel like you should have got a better outcome, if you did have Falcons +10.5. Still, a weekend without a ton of bad beats football-wise. So let's just go right to Monday Night Football, in what should be one of the games of the year--

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--easily one of the games that's going to have the biggest weight in determining the NFL playoff picture, and that's the New England Patriots, 3-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills. This is a great game. The Patriots have totally rebounded since a 2-3 start to the season. They've won six in a row. They actually lead the AFC East by a half game against the Buffalo Bills, darlings of the preseason, the Super Bowl pick of a lot of people, including me, I'll cop to it, but they have not lived up to the billing, really, and that's why I like the Patriots in this game. Why have the Bills gotten such a pass this year? Even when they've looked bad in losses to the Colts, or losing 9 to 6 of the Jaguars, they still get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. I don't really get it. The Patriots, if we're being honest, have been the better team over the last six weeks, and probably on the season as a whole, even with their slow start. The defense has really come around. Mac Jones is playing within himself. Options on their offense are really coming alive. They're getting everybody involved. This is Patriots football. It's a Bill Belichick team, the kind of team he likes to have, a versatile team, a smart team, and they're really playing well.

Whereas the Bills, if you see some of the analytics, yeah, they say the Bills are having a good year, but they don't really pass the eye test. I'm not a huge eye test guy, but when you watch these Bills, you just say, this isn't the team we saw last year. That team has really only showed up in a little bit of spurts, and that's why I like the Patriots in this game. Also, the weather is going to be a factor. Huge winds in Buffalo. We might get some precipitation. You could say that that helps Josh Allen. He's a big arm, kind of cold weather quarterback, compared to Mac Jones, an Alabama guy from Florida, but I think the Patriots' offense is better equipped to handle that weather. They could run the ball. The Bills can't. They don't even try. The Bills are a very one-dimensional team, and I think a one-dimensional offense. Bill Belichick can take that away. The weather is going to help with that too.

It's just a bad matchup for the Bills, who have tried to get over this Patriots hump, finally did last year, but now it seems like they're right back in the mix, trying to fight off the Patriots. We've been here before. I think this is a huge game for the Patriots to take a step forward and show themselves as Super Bowl contenders, and I think they will. I think we're getting the better team here with 3 points. I think the Patriots win this outright, but if you can grab the 3, go ahead and do that. I don't think you're gonna need it though. Make sure you have something on the moneyline here.

Also, in this game, you could probably tell, I'm leaning towards under 41.5. I think this is gonna be a low-scoring, ugly, bad weather affair, as we've seen in Buffalo so many times. I think the Patriots are gonna really want to slow down the pace of this game. Both teams play great defense, so under 41.5 is the way to go. And let's look at a couple of props that are weather-related too. You have to consider that this late in the year, especially when the winds might be 25, 30 miles an hour. I'll take Mac Jones under 202.5 yards. I just don't think they're gonna pass the ball a lot. They're not gonna be very effective when they do pass the ball, because of the Bills' defense and the weather. It's just not gonna be a high-flying game by any means for these Patriots. You're gonna see a lot of rushing attempts. You're not gonna see a lot of passing attempts, so I think Mac Jones can be efficient, but also take the under. I think he's gonna be well under 200 yards in this game, even if they have a good offensive game.

And let's go with Stefon Diggs under 61.5 yards. As we know, Bill Belichick can take something you do away, masterful at that. And when you look at this Bills offense, which is so one-dimensional, as we just talked about, which player do you want to take away? You could argue maybe it's Dawson Knox. Maybe it's even Cole Beasley out of the slot. But I think, obviously, if you could take away one thing, it's gonna be Stefon Diggs and his big play ability. They're very, very good at doing this. We saw them do it to Kyle Pitts a couple of weeks ago. I think they take Stefon Diggs out of this game, so I'd go under 61.5 for him. Again, weather factors into this as well. If we're not getting a lot of passing yards, Stefon Diggs isn't going to have a big day.

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So let's recap here. I love the Patriots +3. I'm taking them on the moneyline. I think they win straight up here. I went under 41.5, a big nod to the weather, but also both defenses. These are two of the best five defenses in football. I'm also going Mac Jones under 202.5 passing yards-- I don't think there's gonna be a lot of passing in this game-- and Stefon Diggs under 61.5 receiving yards, figuring Bill Belichick and that defense could take him out of the game a little bit. They're gonna focus their efforts there.

You can follow me on Twitter over @YahooSchwab, and follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook. Create a BetMGM account and place your first bet risk-free, up to $1,000. If your bet loses, you get your bet amount, up to $1,000, added back to your account in free bets. You must be 21 or older in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming only. Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/Yahoo to get started, or use the promo code "Yahoo" when making your first deposit. Pam will be back tomorrow to host the next episode on Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. Until then, goodbye and good luck.