Over/Under Week 12 - Alvin Kamara

Will the Saints RB cash in vs. the Broncos this week?

Video Transcript

- All right, our first over/under, of the show, is going to deal with that Denver-New Orleans game. And believe it or not, there was a time, like 48 hours ago, when the New Orleans side actually had more questions and was more interesting. That's no longer the case.

But anyway, we're going to talk about Alvin Kamara. And we're going to set the line here at 4 and 1/2 receptions. I will get us started. Obviously, early in the season, and really, if you could just guarantee me that Drew Brees was his quarterback, and he was going to play his normal complement of snaps. Of course he would go over 4 and 1/2 receptions.

He's done it all year. He was, prior to last week, on pace for the single season reception record by a running back. But last week, with Taysom at quarterback and playing through an injury-- it was only one target-- no catches for Kamara. That is a serious concern. I don't know that he's going to have to play more than half of this game.

Jared already mentioned, the direction that the total has gone, that the line has gone. I don't know that we're going to see a lot of him. I don't think he's going to need to catch more than, say four passes in this one. So I'm actually going to take the under. I think he gets outsnapped by Latavius Murray. I'm worried as a Kamara investor. Tank, how do you feel about this?

- See, now, I will put out the disclaimer that we made this decision before we found out about the debacle in Denver. But I'm still sticking with my over. But this is the reason why. Like, he's gone over in every game except two. That Denver defense.

Like, even though the offense is going to be straight trash today. Like, they're seventh in sacks. Which means that they going be able to get a lot of pressure on Taysom Hill. And when you look at it from a macro perspective, like who can read coverages better,

Drew Brees or Taysom Hill? I feel like Drew Brees can. He check the ball down a lot. So, you know Taysom going have to check the ball down a lot. If that defense feels like they're going to have to win the game for Denver. So in that respect, I feel like he goes over.

- It's fair. OK. Jared, break the tie.

- I'm going with Tank, here. Over is going to hit, solely because Denver knows that Taysom Hill is not going to beat them throwing. They're going to load the box. And when that happens, he's going to have to get a lot of outlet passes. And I mean you still gotta get a lead there. I mean he might give 4 and 1/2. He might get over that in the first half.

- I need it. That would help me. I got no problem with that.