Over/under football picks, Week 4 NFL survivor team

Pam Maldonado has a couple of hot off the presses over/under picks for the weekend football slate. She also continues her hot streak in NFL survivor pool selections with a team that is on a two-game skid... New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO, IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. . Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit. Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at yahoosports.com/podcasts

Video Transcript

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PAM MALDONADO: Welcome to the Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It is September 28. I am your betting guide, Pam Maldonado, here to break down three college football game totals for week five.

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PAM MALDONADO: Life is too short to bet the under, but that's exactly what I'm looking at for this week. When looking at totals, ask yourself, do teams have scoring opportunities and are these teams capitalizing on these opportunities? Game number one, Syracuse at Florida State, under 52. Both teams are ranked 69th and 74th in red zone attempts, which means they don't have many scoring chances. 64th and 1/10 in red zone scores, which means when they do get downfield, they aren't putting up touchdowns.

The end result, both of these teams, Syracuse and Florida State, are 96th and 76th in points per game. The strength of the orange is on the defense, 20th in total defense, 20th in quarterback sacks. What's the worst part about Florida State? Quarterback protection, 124th in quarterback sacks, 14 combined sacks between two quarterbacks being used for the Seminoles. I expect for the same to happen this week, Florida State to struggle against the Syracuse pass rush, under 52.

Game number two, Florida at Kentucky, under 55.5. You have two run-first offenses whose defensive strength is against the run. Both teams are third and 12th in rushing yards and 28th and fifth in rushing defense. Florida held Alabama to just 31 total points and 91 total rushing yards for 3.3 yards per carry. While the Wildcats are fifth in red zone attempts and fifth in red zone scores, two opponents they have faced is Mizzou and South Carolina, both of which are 123rd and 87th in rushing defense. I expect less success here on the ground for the Kentucky Wildcats, under 55.5

Game number three, Auburn at LSU, under 54.5. Bo Nix on the road is far less productive than when he is playing at home. This season so far, five passing average on the road, 8.2 at home, zero touchdowns when traveling, five touchdowns when he is playing in his house. The same holds true for his entire college career.

The Auburn Tigers' best offense is the run game. LSU's best defense is against the run. While LSU is 12th in passing yards, they are actually 106th in red zone attempts and 81st in red zone scores. With an unproductive Bo Nix on the road and an inefficient scoring LSU team, this total is staying under.

Looking for a survivor pick? Everyone will be on the Buffalo Bills, who are 16.5-point favorites over the lowly Houston Texans without Tyrod Taylor. However, the Chiefs are coming off back to back losses and going on the road to visit the Philadelphia Eagles. No way they drop three straight games.

That is all I've got for you today on this fine Tuesday. Syracuse at Florida State, under 52. Florida at Kentucky, under 55.5. And Auburn at LSU, under 54.5. And Chiefs for a survivor pick. You can follow me on Twitter @pamelam35, and you can follow all of our content over at the Yahoo Sportsbook, both online and at the Yahoo Sportsbook app. Nick Bromberg is back tomorrow to host the Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. Until then, goodbye and good luck with your bets.

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