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Mining NHL futures value at U.S. Thanksgiving

Justin Cuthbert talks bets, hedges and options in the NHL futures market after sportsbook re-set the odds on an idle day in the league schedule.

Video Transcript

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JUSTIN CUTHBERT: It's another solo edition of the "Yahoo Sports Hockey Podcast." Justin Cuthbert back with you. So it's US Thanksgiving, but us Canadians have something to be thankful for as well. Because with no games on the schedule, and I guess no opportunity for liability, many sportsbooks have reintroduced futures odds in the NHL.

So we're now two months since we broke it down-- the entire futures market that is-- with my guy Steven Psihogios So let's revisit, maybe make some more bets, and maybe take advantage of some hedging opportunities. Let's start with the divisions.

Florida Panthers were my pick to win the Atlantic Division. I got the bet at about +440 entering the season. They're now down to +122. They just have a 4-point lead over the Maple Leafs, who are at +260. Also have Tampa Bay at +265 and Boston at +600.

As I mentioned, I already have Florida, so not going to be doubling down on that. Going to be just happy with the number that I got. Am slightly worried about the Maple Leafs who are playing a very, very responsible and consistent brand of hockey at the moment. Be interesting to see how those teams match up against each other when they do in fact play each other.

But if there is a value play, I feel like it's got to be the Boston Bruins. They're 11 points out, which is a pretty sizable mountain to climb. But they've got three games in hand. They've been sort of stuck in the middle of that division all season long, because they just played fewer games. But I feel like they're going to get going and, of course, they're going to catch up in terms of games played.

So if you really want to make a splash here, I guess you could go Boston. But it seems like it's priced accordingly at Florida +122 and, again, the Leafs and Lightning at about +260 and +265 respectively.

Moving on to the Metropolitan Division, the Carolina Hurricanes are the favorites at +140. They've been probably the top team in the league all season long. The Capitals, who are one of the big surprises, at least for me, are at +240. The Rangers at +350. The Penguins at +800. The Islanders are +1,900. So I have an investment on the Islanders, so I'd love to try and win some of that money back here. But I don't really see the obvious opportunity to jump at.

I mean, I'm really impressed by the Hurricanes. I do think they're going to eventually win that division, but +140's not a very enticing price tag. The Caps are interesting at +240, but I just don't think the Carolina Hurricanes are going to go anywhere. So that could be a bit of a coin flip, and I guess the value then would be on the Capitals but not enough for me to try and make that money back confidently.

What I am going to do, though, I'm going to play the Hurricanes +500 to win the Presidents' Trophy. I just think they're the most consistent team. They're probably the best coached team in the NHL. I feel like their success is repeatable.

So I'm going to try to hedge my bets a little bit here in the Metropolitan Division, even though I could win both very easily. But I think I can win some of that money back with the Carolina Hurricanes at +500 as my favorite to lead the league in points after the regular season is through.

On to the Central Division where the Colorado Avalanche not even in the top three right now, but they are -141 favorites to win the division. The Wild at +360, the Blues at +600, and the Jets at +640. As I mentioned, the Avs are fourth, but they're pretty much basically as productive based on points percentage. Only fractionally worse than the first place Wild.

So you know, they're a little bit miscast in their current ranking, and that's only because they haven't played as many games. But after six wins in a row, the Colorado Avalanche are starting to look like the team we expected them to be, the Stanley Cup favorites. Of course, the favorites to win the Central Division. So if you did believe in the Avalanche back then, I don't think you should not believe in the Avalanche to win the division at this point. And at -141, that's way better than it was at least coming into the season.

So I'm not sure there's any reason to think otherwise. If you believed in the Avalanche before, maybe this is the time to get in on them. Of course, they do have a little bit of a deficit to overcome and some teams to jump to get there. So maybe it wasn't the slam dunk it was. But at -141, there are certainly worse bets on the board right now than the Colorado Avalanche winning the division at that number.

They've got Cale Makar rolling. Nazem Kadri's been absolutely on fire, and Nathan MacKinnon is coming back soon. There is certainly an opportunity here. But to tie up money for four to five months, I usually need plus money, so I'm not sure I'm going to play it. But I'm probably going to take a long look at it today.

Lastly, the Pacific Division, it's basically a three-horse race at this point. The Oilers are at +165, the Flames at +175, and the Vegas Golden Knights at +180. I don't really have a hard lean here. Vegas is only 5 points back despite a lot of trouble earlier in the season, and they are getting some key players back over time. So maybe they're worth a look. But I did tie up some futures with them at the start of the season, so I'm not really eager to double down at this point.

The Oilers are the favorites, but they have the most opportunity to improve as well I think. So they are certainly worth looking at if you believe in Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and maybe more so the supporting cast around them. But the team with maybe the least game-to-game variance would be the Calgary Flames, you'd think, who are playing Darryl Sutter hockey to a tee.

So those three are just too tightly bunched for me to really get in on anything. I do have some Vegas futures, some Stanley Cup futures. So I'm just going to hope that Jack Eichel can get into that lineup, and Mark Stone, and Max Pacioretty, and William Karlsson, and Jonathan Marchessault can stay in that lineup, and that the Vegas Golden Knights will be the team we expected them to be come playoff time.

Quickly, Eastern and Western Conference winners here. In the East, it's a three-horse race-- +390 to +440 with Florida, Tampa, and Toronto. And keep in mind, this is to go to the Stanley Cup Final.

But I think the most intriguing one is Washington. The Capitals at +800 or better is interesting for me. They have been as good as any other team to start here, and they're getting some pretty long odds at +800. They've had some trouble with Carolina in the playoffs in the past. They've had some just trouble period in the playoffs in recent memory here. But they look like a much stronger team than they were last year, so maybe it's worth taking a flyer on the Caps at +800.

And then in the West, you know, you still have to pay for Colorado at +235. Vegas you still have to pay for at +310, and I mentioned I'm not doubling down there. But the Winnipeg Jets at +1,200 is certainly interesting to me. Those are some pretty long odds. Think they're going to be comfortably into the postseason. And I think they're-- I think they can compete with any team there in the Central Division.

So if they could get some home ice, maybe come in second, maybe beat out the Minnesota Wild for second spot in the Central, perhaps they're in a position then to do some damage at plus 1,200. Just to win, I guess it would be three rounds in the postseason? That's decent. That's decent. And possibly you could set yourself up for a hedge out opportunity down the line.

On to the Stanley Cup, Avs are up to +600. Still probably not that enticing for me. Again, if you want to play the Jets at +2,800 instead of them at +1,200 to win the Western Conference, maybe that's a good opportunity, a long plus money play that could be worth looking at.

Um, let's do some make or miss in terms of making or missing the playoffs. I have made or added two bets in this category. I have taken the Anaheim Ducks and New Jersey Devils to make the playoffs. The Ducks are at +185. I just think it's pretty clear that the best team in California is going to get in. And-- excuse me. And I think Anaheim is that team, at least right now, and can be that team at the end of a regular season.

It's not that competitive, it seems, beyond you know, the top three or four teams in the Central. And I think we know what the top three teams in the Pacific are going to be, and that leaves one spot for a California team or Nashville. And I just think the Ducks have just proven that they're a little bit more talented, a little bit more exciting, a little bit more capable with a strong goaltender, strong defense core, and some really exciting players up front.

Jersey may be longer odds-- well, certainly are longer odds objectively at +255. It is a tough division. They're in the playoffs right now based on point percentage, same as Anaheim. But I think for Jersey it's just a matter of beating out Pittsburgh. And at +255, I think there's a strong chance that they beat out Pittsburgh, because the Penguins are looking at an uncertain future themselves.

The Devils are going to get Jack Hughes back. They've got Dawson Mercer emerging as one of the best rookies this season. And I think they have reason themselves to add before the deadline. So I think the Devils could squeak into the seventh or eighth spot, maybe the three hole in terms of the Metropolitan Division. And at +255, I think it is worth a light sprinkle.

Others-- three to miss. I haven't played these yet, but I am considering them. The Nashville Predators are at -122 to miss. The Islanders, who are in last place in the Metro and look terrible, are at -167 to miss. You got to pay a little bit to play there. And the Dallas Stars are at +100 to miss. I do think all three of these teams are going to miss the playoffs in the end.

Again, you've got to pay for a couple of them. Dallas at +100 is interesting. But if they get on a run, I mean, they're a really talented group, and perhaps that messes with the bet that I put down with the Anaheim Ducks. And maybe it's not worth doubling down on the assertion that the Ducks are better than the Dallas Stars.

Here's where it gets interesting for me, though-- individual awards. One of my favorite things to bet on in sports gambling period is NHL futures. And I will start with the four new bets that I placed in addition to many before the season. The first being Leon Draisaitl to win the Rocket Richard. It's at +275 at the book I'm playing at. And it is something of a hedge, because I placed a bet on Connor McDavid, rather, at +750 before the season to win the Rocket Richard.

Now, Draisaitl is way ahead. He's got a 12-goal lead on Auston Matthews, who was the favorite coming in. I believe he's got a five-goal lead on Alexander Ovechkin and everybody else. And he's got a pretty big buffer zone on Connor McDavid right now, but I think McDavid could get there.

But really the only non-Oiler-- so the only player that I don't have a bet on that could catch Leon at this point, unless Draisaitl does get hurt, is Ovechkin. And I think between them and with the lead that Draisaitl has, I will take Draisaitl to outscore Ovechkin and the rest of the National Hockey League.

I just think 97 and 29 at this point are just too dominant. One of them-- or both of them seems like they're scoring every night, so I will just lean on the fact that one of the two Oilers will win the Rocket Richard. And at +275, that's a solid hedge out and a solid bet on the guy who's already leading at the quarter pole of the season by a pretty sizable margin and is going to show no signs, I don't think, of slowing down.

Next new bet, I got Jack Campbell to win the Vezina Trophy at +900. I've already got Connor Hellebuyck, I believe, at +900 at the start of the season and then some long odds on Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers and Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators. Right now, Campbell is fifth in the current live odds behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's +480, Shesterkin at +780-- so I'm liking that-- and then Sergei Bobrovsky and Freddie Andersen are at +820, with Campbell at +900.

You know, Vasilevskiy's going to be the favorite every year as long as he's with the Tampa Bay Lightning and as long as they're a strong team. I mean, this is the best goaltender in the world. But that doesn't mean he's going to win it every year. The Lightning are now without Brayden Point, in addition to Nikita Kucherov, so I think they're going to be dealing with some adversity and maybe a roller coaster season ahead here. So I wouldn't be rushing to bet Vasilevskiy at +480, even though you could pretty much count him being in the top three at the end of the year.

And then Sergei Bobrovsky and Freddie Andersen, they're just susceptible to slips in their performances. We've seen that before. But the strongest factor here in making this bet is that Jack Campbell wins the award if it was given out today. The Leafs have played so well defensively all season long. We know that's a focus of Sheldon Keefe. And Campbell has just been so zip lock tight for the Leafs all season long, since he's been with the organization. I just don't think he's showing any signs of slowing down, and I think he can keep this performance up.

So I love the number I have at Shesterkin already. Now I love the number I have at Jack Campbell. And I think I have two of the strongest netminders in the world right now at favorable odds, so I'm pretty happy with my Vezina selections now.

My favorite bet, though, that I placed today is Darryl Sutter to win the Jack Adams at +2,500. That is an absolutely ridiculous line, honestly. Darryl has had the most influence, bar none, among coaches in the NHL this season. The Calgary Flames were a mess last year when he took over. And now this is a completely different team playing exactly to the brand that we understand, and know, and I guess maybe love of Darryl Sutter.

He's completely turned around this team. And this is a team that lost its best defenceman Mark Giordano in the expansion draft. He's going to receive a ton of credit for the job, justifiably so, and for the sheer fact that Darryl Sutter hockey has become a term that gets thrown around all the time. It's going to be said a lot in the media. There's going to be a lot of hype behind it. And I think, honestly, this is a bet that you must hammer if you can find it at +2,500.

I don't think there's an argument for anyone else really to be the frontrunner at this point. But if there is another guy that deserves to be recognized maybe in the top three, it's another guy at +2,500, Dallas Eakins who, of course, has the Anaheim Ducks outperforming expectation by a wide margin.

And the difference between expectations and reality is always a key factor in the Jack Adams Award. Like, we don't give credit to Rod Brind'amour for just being the best coach in the league. Even though he won it last year, we're probably going to try to find someone else to give it to, right? And I think Darryl Sutter's such an obvious choice at this time-- and Dallas Eakins, if you want to sprinkle on him as well. I mean, the Vegas odds for team total in Anaheim was about 71 coming in. They're on pace for 100+. That is a wide discrepancy, and that's something that usually gets recognized among voters.

Last new bet, I got Lucas Raymond to win the Calder at just +200. Not great odds admittedly, but clearly the top-performing rookie right now, and I don't really expect that to change. He is a top line staple. He's going to get major opportunity. That isn't going anywhere. He's going to be playing with Detroit's best players and in a position to rack up points. He's got a 7-point lead right now in the rookie scoring race. And at +200, I don't really think you can go wrong, because there's not an obvious choice behind him.

There are a lot of strong rookie candidates right now. There's a couple that you could look at, but I don't think they're going to get the same opportunity as Lucas Raymond. And they haven't shown what Raymond has shown so far this season just yet. So I like that as well at +200. Not my favorite bet that I put today, but happy with it nonetheless.

As for the Hart and Art Ross, those are the only other real options that were available. There were no Norris odds. That's a little bit more complicated I suppose. You could take shots at McDavid at -130 for the Art Ross and +140 for the Hart Trophy.

But I think the problem here is that the Draisaitl factor is so real. I mean, how do you separate the two? I have bets on Connor McDavid to win both the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross, in addition to the Rocket. And I could try to figure out a way to hedge those with Draisaitl, but I think I just got to leave it as is.

You could consider Leon +360 for the Hart, because he's probably in that position right now, even though it's, you know, close to a coin flip. But, like, the position on McDavid for the Hart and for the Art Ross, they weren't big enough anyway to give you a chance to hedge. So you've got to hope that voters recognize Connor McDavid's brilliance, even if he falls short in the goal scoring and points race, although I think McDavid will get there in the end.

All right, that's it. Let's go to the Power Five, the weekly staple here where I give you the best teams in the NHL right now adjudged by only me. And the Avalanche are starting to sniff around. They're not in the top five yet, but they are starting to sniff around with the six wins in a row, as I mentioned. But they're on the outside looking in, as are the Oilers who are still solid but they fall out this week as well with a couple new teams emerging in the last couple weeks here.

And one of those teams, at number five, is the Toronto Maple Leafs-- 12 wins from their last 14 games. And what's funny is that the team defense has been the driving force here, fifth fewest goals allowed in the NHL this season. They're only 13th in total team scoring themselves. And that, you'd figure, would correct itself with all the firepower they have up front.

Auston Matthews not quite going yet. Um, I suspect that the Maple Leafs are going to score more goals here in the coming weeks and months. Maybe that defense slips a little bit. Maybe Jack Campbell isn't as solid down the next four or five months of the season. But the Maple Leafs are certainly in a good position given how well they are performing at the baseline defensive level.

Speaking of that number, for the Calgary Flames, I mean, that's what's doing it for them as well. The Flames have been so so impressive this year. They've got the best goal differential in the entire NHL, and they've played only 7 of their 20 games on home ice. They are the one team that's playing a little beyond what is expected in terms of underlying numbers, but it has been dominance nonetheless with Darryl Sutter. That's why I'm happy to have that +2,500 ticket on Sutter to win the Jack Adams.

Number three, the Carolina Hurricanes-- I mean, still probably the best, most impressive team in the NHL to this point. But consecutive losses, including a regulation defeat to the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday night, has them slipping temporarily on this list and giving way to number two, the Florida Panthers. Best record in the NHL. I guess they've inched ahead of Carolina with that Kraken loss. But perfect 11 and 0 at home. Very, very impressive.

But there's always a flip side of that, and that's that they just have three wins from eight games on the road. So if that trouble on the road, I guess if you want to call it, continues and the home and road games in the schedule start to even out a bit, maybe Florida slips. So they have to address the road concerns. And then you got to think that the home record doesn't stay as it is all season long. So maybe something to think about with Florida.

But number one-- the new number one on the list this week is the Washington Capitals, the surprise of the season for me-- at least in the Eastern Conference. They've dominated in just about every aspect of the game. The home, road splits, the same. The penalty killing, the special teams, even strength, it's all rock-solid with the Washington Capitals through the first 25% of the season, through the first quarter pole. And for that reason, they stand alone on the Power Five on the "Yahoo Sports Hockey Podcast."

We will leave it there. Julian back on the weekend. "Zone Time" next Tuesday. And then I'll be back with you next Thursday for another solo edition of the "Yahoo Sports Hockey Podcast."