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Expectations for Christian McCaffrey in 2020

Liz & Matt discuss how the star RB could perform under a new head coach, in a new offense.

Video Transcript

LIZ LOZA: Matt, I want to stick with you because we're gonna talk about those players who are burdened, if you will, with the first overall pick. As our quasi-resident Panthers fan, what are your expectations for Christian McCaffrey in a new offense with a new quarterback and a new head coach?

MATT HARMON: Well, two things there, Liz. You actually did a really good podcast recently, and your guest highlighted that they were-- I think you might be able to talk about it more than I could. But highlighted that the number one running back overall has never repeated in multiple seasons the last decade. Something like that I think it was.

So, I mean, the odds are very good. Last year coming into the season, I think Saquon Barkley went number one overall in 75% of Yahoo drafts. And this will be even more consensus of the top guy going first overall in this year's draft. So the odds are pretty good that McCaffrey finishes as running back three, running back four, running back five.

And also we talk about continuity so much. You mentioned it. There's no team that has worse continuity this year than the Carolina Panthers. They have a new starting quarterback, new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. I believe they're the only NFL team that boasts that much transition from last year to this year.

So at the end of the day, though, there's really no-- other than just he's not gonna probably be the top-scoring running back again. There's probably a lot of transition in the offense. There's really no holes that you can poke in McCaffrey's outlook. I mean, he's been an absolute workhorse the last two years.

I think this offense is gonna throw the ball a ton. I think they're gonna play really fast. I wouldn't be surprised if Teddy Bridgewater, if he plays a 16-game season, leads the NFL in pass attempts. And the Panthers were already pass-heavy last year too.

So there's really no holes you can poke in McCaffrey's outlook. It's just you have to realize maybe don't cry yourself to sleep in a few months from now if he finishes as the running back three. Because that's just kind of what tends to happen.

LIZ LOZA: Right. It was Mauricio Gutierrez of Estadio Fantasy that came on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast a couple of weeks ago and noted that stat, that I believe over the-- and you included it in your running back tiers article, which everyone should definitely check out on the website, that over the past decade only two RB ones for fantasy purposes managed to finish within the top five again the second season.

So I also want to add that our very own Scott Pianowski has fearlessly forecasted Christian McCaffrey for 103 catches, 2,044 total yards, and 13 touchdowns. That's about 350 yards and six touchdowns fewer than he posted in 2019. It's gonna be interesting. Because, Matt, I think when you're talking about these Panthers throwing a lot more, you're alluding obviously to the ultra-green defense and the need for them to make up for that deficiency. But also accounting for the addition of Robby Anderson, it makes things a little bit murkier.

MATT HARMON: This defense looks horrible on paper.

LIZ LOZA: Yeah.

MATT HARMON: I mean, let's not pull any punches. Honestly, I feel like I've got a pretty good grasp on a lot of NFL players. I feel like I got a pretty good grasp on a lot of these rosters because it's my job. And, I mean, the Panthers especially, like you mentioned, I've got some sort of weird attachment to that team.

Yikes, I don't know who a lot of these goofballs are back there. So, I mean, it's gonna be quite a messy year from a defensive perspective. I don't think they're gonna be in a lot of positive game scripts.

And they do have the weapons. I think they've got the guys on offense to be a pass-leaning team, and I think that's the strength of their team. So yeah, I think they're just gonna be pushing the ball a lot. Because not only do they need to, I think they also kind of want to as well.