Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don discuss a few players who may disappoint fantasy managers in 2023.
ANDY BEHRENS: We just talked [? of ?] players that we can't wait to draft. So now we're going to look at some fades for 2023 with professional hater, the king of the hot take, Yahoo's Dalton Del Don. Dalton, I just talked up Travis Kelce, so naturally, you want nothing to do with him next year.
DALTON DEL DON: Truthfully, given there's so much unknown, I don't have a ton of fades right now, but I'll play along with your game, Behrens. There's no obvious aging running back. There's no obvious like aging running back who over-performed. So, yes, I'll go with Travis Kelce again. Avoiding him with no Tyreek Hill this year certainly didn't work out for fantasy managers like myself, but assuming he's a top 15, maybe top 10 pick again in 2023, and why wouldn't he be after lapping the tight end field?
Behrens, you just named him your fantasy MVP. I'm still staying away. He'll be 34 years old, and while I'm aware he didn't exactly look washed, things also fell perfectly for Kelce. No wide receiver emerged with Hill gone. I mean, Justin Watson led all KC wide receivers in air yards last week. Watson is routinely running the most routes on the team. That's-- exactly. That's not happening in 2023.
Kelce is going to see more competition at an advanced age, whether it's Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore evolving, or an early draft pick that's very likely. The Chiefs will have better wide receivers next season. So I'd rather be a year too soon than a year too late, but I'm sure Kelce will shove it in my face once again.
ANDY BEHRENS: I actually think that's pretty good advice. Like he's the MVP, but projecting out next year is an entirely different discussion. Everyone likes a good dual threat quarterback, but Kyler Murray is an exception for you. He was having kind of a weird year before it came to a halt with the knee injury. Where are you at on him in 2023?
DALTON DEL DON: I'm down on him, another avoid for me. His ACL surgery is scheduled for January. It hasn't even happened yet. It's entirely possible he's ready for Week 1, but it's most common that he'd miss the first month of the season. Pocket quarterbacks typically perform the same after returning, but running will be compromised. Data suggests running explosiveness takes around a year before hitting 90% pre-injury form, which could be a problem for Murray.
Over his last 16 games dating back to last season, he's gotten just 6.0 YPA. Maybe Kliff Kingsbury's likely departure helps, but the Cardinals have led an NFL low 13% of their offensive snaps this season. He has to deal with the Niners and Rams defenses in his division. DeAndre Hopkins will turn 31 over the off season. I'm drafting Trevor Lawrence over Murray eight days a week next year.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, heck, yeah. I actually like that call a whole lot. I'm not actually going to require you to keep hating on players in this segment, just so you know. I will allow you to like one thing. So what will it be?
DALTON DEL DON: OK, so over the last few seasons, the market inefficiency that's emerged is drafting rookie wide receivers. We had Justin Jefferson explode in 2020, and last year Ja'Marr Chase was barely drafted as a top 30 wideout, finished as a top 5 one. Jaylen Waddle's ADP was outside 100. He finished as a top 15 fantasy wide receiver. In fact, other rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Elijah Moore, they joined Chase and Waddle as top 10 fantasy wideouts over the final seven games last year.
This season. Christian Watson has been the number two fantasy wide receiver in points per game since Week 10 behind only Justin Jefferson. I can't rank Garrett Wilson High enough right now. His ADP was outside 120. This theory would be even more obvious if Chris Olave didn't get hurt and if George Pickens, Drake London, and Jahan Dotson had functional quarterbacks.
I can't tell you which rookie wideout to target next year right now. That's too dependent upon where they're drafted. But just remember the rookie wideout principle next year when at draft tables.