LAS VEGAS — Cyril Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik have a combined 19 MMA bouts between them as professionals. Gane is 7-for-7 with six finishes, while Rozenstruik is 11-1 with 10 finishes.
Combined, they’re 18-1 with 16 finishes, a figure which suggests their fight Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+) in the main event of UFC Vegas 20 at Apex, won’t need all 25 minutes.
Gane is a solid -275 favorite at BetMGM, while Rozenstruik is at a more favorable +230.
Gane is the better all-around fighter and is comfortable in all areas. He also has a size advantage, as he’s 6-foot-6 to Rozenstruik’s 6-2, and will come in around 260. Rozenstruik is usually in the 240s.
Both are former kickboxers, so this should be an engaging stand-up bout.
Rozenstruik’s only loss came to Francis Ngannou, who stormed out of his corner at the bell and caught him with a vicious shot seconds into the fight.
Otherwise, Rozenstruik has been perfect, though he has not faced anyone with the combination of size and skills who is in their prime like Gane.
Gane’s striking game is top notch and he broke down ex-champion Junior dos Santos in their fight in December. Rozenstruik had stopped dos Santos four months earlier.
This could wind up being similar to Rozenstruik’s fight with Alistair Overeem, where Overeem was in command almost the entire way but then Rozenstruik caught him in the waning seconds.
With Rozenstruik, it only takes one and it doesn’t have to be perfectly placed. If he’s reasonably in the target area, he can knock anyone out with one shot.
That’s ultimately why I will play Rozenstruik here. I get him at plus money to win, so I’ll get a better than 2-to-1 return. Also, I’ll play him to win by KO/TKO/DQ and while BetMGM’s props are not posted yet, he’ll be plus money on that, as well.
Other bets for UFC Vegas 20
Angela Hill by decision over Ashley Yoder.
Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO/DQ over Thiago Moises.
I will lay the -150 and take Jimmie Rivera to win over Pedro Munhoz.
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